79 Comments
Nov 14, 2023·edited Nov 14, 2023

Cal Quantrill just dfa'd. Maybe a cash trade could add some starting depth.

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I also find of/2b Austin Martin worth looking into. He was the 5th overall pick in 2020. He has underachieved, but the Twins just didn't have room for him.

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They ended up adding Martin to the 40 man.

There's a couple guys I wouldn't mind the pirates drafting in the rule 5.

Cole Wilcox from TB, Carlos de la Cruz from Philly and probably more if I look who's available.

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Aaaand . . . it's Ashcraft and Cheng.

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Even though I wanted Bowen too, he was third on my list and I'm glad they think that well of Cheng.

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Just saw that. One spot still open for……….Nola? 😁

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This is total tea-leaf-reading, but it occurred to me that maybe they opened three spots to have these two, plus one to select a guy. If they sign FAs, they'll open up spots when they come to it. Probably just baloney, though.

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I agree whole heartedly. They are planning on signing at least one FA. They probably only worried about losing these two and will have one spot already for at least one and there are guys they could drop in a heartbeat for more. They probably kept a few guys now that they could have cut but could throw in a trade because of at least a bit of trade value. That will help in trades. If they need the spot, DFA in a heartbeat.

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I felt the same.

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I like the idea of stretching Jackson out. Maybe he's only a 5-6 inning starter, but that could work as a fifth starter.

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Jackson has a massive second-time-through problem.

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He did as a starter but not as a reliever in a similar number of ABs. Most of the damage in the starter category was from one game on September 5 when he was charged with 6 earned runs in the 4th inning of a game against the Brewers. The game prior to that game he pitched 5.2 innings facing 20 batters and only gave up one run and the game prior to that he didn't come in until the 2nd but then pitched 6.0 innings facing 24 batters and only gave up two runs.

I think it's worth a shot, especially given that he wasn't built up to be a starter last year. Chances are that it would fail because most pitchers struggle with a second-time-through penalty, but of our relievers he seems like the best option to stretch out.

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They can (and should) try to do better than that. The organization should be be beyond tryout stage.

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Jackson would be a 5th starter candidate. They absolutely have work to do to fill in the spots between Keller and Jackson. Maybe Ortiz or Priester can claim the 4th-starter role, but at least two mid-rotation-or-better starters need to be acquired. Given our cheap ways, I just don't see us going for three quality external additions to the rotation.

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And I’m saying he shouldn’t be in that conversation as a 5. If they’re as serious as they claim to be, they should get at least two external rotation candidates and then use a combo of Priester/Ortiz/Jones until the TJ twins (Burrows/Bru) are ready in May/June.

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Wasn't just the one game. Even without it, he gave up four dingers in 34 second-time-through ABs.

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If you only look at second-time-through for his starts. For his relief appearances, he gave up one HR in 35 ABs. You could add another nine third-time-through ABs when he didn't allow a HR to get a total of five HRs in 84 ABs.

Two years ago Keller saw his OPS-allowed go up by about 100 points the second time through. This year it actually dropped.

But I haven't studied Jackson's pitch mix enough to know if it's that good of an idea. I just wouldn't let the results of 40 ABs influence me, especially when they're from a season that he entered as a reliever.

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Sometimes TJ guys come back with a better arm than before. Yeah, grasping at straws for that.....but just maybe Kranick becomes our "sleeper" coming out of ST.

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I truly think this is an opportunity. Aggressively try and sign 3 actual SPs with one of them being a LHSP. Even if a multiyear deal, Nutting will only definitely be on the hook for half a season. Figure out which 1 or 2 of the 3 you want to keep around and trade the others. It's (a reasonable amount) of cash for prospects scheme. Montas, Paxton, Fedde. Whatever.

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Nov 14, 2023Liked by NolaJeffy(BnP)

I'm just guessing here...Ben probably allotted x amount of $'s for the rotation. Instead of having 15M (just an arbitrary #) for 2 starters, he'll now have to spread that out on 3 starters.

Before Oviedo injury he probably could have reasonably signed Wacha and Miley. Now, we're looking at something like Zach Davies, Eric Lauer and Julio Teheran as the reclamation project.

Surprise me Ben and have an off-season! Get creative...WWTD.

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Would you (or anyone that wants to reply) rather that BC still spend x dollars on 2 SP and let the third spot be filled from within or spread around those dollars to 3 FA SP? I see the merits of both but almost feels like it might be more beneficial to strive for a sure thing rather than 3 lower end when we already have those in the system

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I'm not one of those guys that thinks the Pirates should spend their entire budget on one player. In this scenario, I'd spend it on 2 starters and get on the phone with Jerry Dipoto and see what he wants for Woo.

I was being fictitious with Teheran as he would be a minor league FA and certainly someone that can't help teams win games. But, yeah, 2 FAs and a trade would work.

Keller

Manaea

Woo

Montas

Contreras / Ortiz / Brubaker / Skenes

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We gotta get Woo for the Woo Birds, right?

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I like the idea of a few midmarket starters and a trade to round things out, good call

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There is some level of re-act and change plans even as he potentially signs the first player. Maybe he has two players he was / is willing to pay a higher salary and he thinks they have a shot of signing in Pittsburgh. If neither sign then maybe he spreads that over 3 or if one signs, he alters his plans again. Long way of saying, once players start signing somewhere, the strategy morphs accordingly.

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I think this is really bad for the Pirates. Oviedo is a 3/4 starter, but when you only have one other guy who has shown the ability to be decent (Keller), and the likelihood of them signing another PROVEN guy as low, the chances of competing for a WC spot is probably gone. It was already low even with Oviedo. A couple of guys would need to be massive pleasant surprises. Guys like Quintana are brought in by other teams to fill out rotations, but for us, they are key to success. That won’t win the Central.

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I expect to get beat up with this suggestion, but I would think about stretching Borucki into a 4 to 5 inning guy. He was a starter at age 24, but some pitchers figure it out at his age 29. 40 innings 26 hits 4 walks 4 homers and a .74 whip were his numbers last year.

The Pirates actually did pretty well in September going with 2 multiple inning pitchers in many games. That might be what to expect in 2025 with additions of guys like Skenes, Chandler, Jones, Solometo, Burrows, Harrington, Wolf, Shim and whoever else I might be missing.

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I really dont hate this idea tbh, at least as an option though ideally wouldnt be our plan out of ST

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like

would also consider Mlod for the same

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Im not gonna lie, but knee-jerk reaction is that we are kinda fucked unless some of the internal guys take a large step forward or our precedent of spending is largely altered

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Jim Norris on BA just did a QA on their Top 10 Pirates prospects and was asked if he thought any of the young kids that struggled in the majors could bounceback and he said Ortiz. Said if he comes in conditioned better, could improve and return to form.

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Good to hear! Hope its that easy because we sure are going to need it!

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Interesting, and it did seem that Ortiz could have been more fit. Maybe it was too easy in September '22.

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That's it though? Not Hank or Endy or Nick or Bae or Peguero? Woof.

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Well I guess I left out it was pitchers. So among the pitchers (QP, Ortiz, Ro), Norris picked Ortiz

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keep on thinking about whether Oviedo had that much mo´ better chance for a bright 2024 than Ortiz, Priester or Contreras

gut says no but baseball is a random game

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Better stuff than all three showed last year and also track record of more success. I hope you are right and that means some of those guys are going to be our next success story

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Nick to Toronto for Alex Manoah

Peguero to the Marlins for Eduardo Cabrera

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Add a few more players on the Pirates side and they might listen. Straight up I see a quick hang up by the Jays and Marlins.

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I´d add Holderman to the Marlins deal

on the blue jays, maybe to add roansy

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Holderman is worth a lot right now. Nick, barely anything. Cabrera is worth less than half of what Holderman is if you buy BTV.

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Nick is worth more than you think; 60 XBH’s between AAA/ MLB. Just throwing spaghetti here, but that is prob more than any MiLB/MLB player in the system last year.

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I don't really think so. So so defense and Quad A label until he shows more with the bat than that 64 wRC+ in 128 PAs at MLB. He could turn it around but it's more likely he doesn't honestly.

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maybe not for Cabrera (to your point), but if Holderman is worth as much as you say, then no doubt we should be offering him up for a starting pitcher

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How about we take Robbie Ray off the Mariners hands, they send back cash and Bryce Miller and we send Holderman+. We'd have our LHSP in Ray probably mid year to August after TJS recovery (which he's well underway) and control him through 2026 with $15M+ coming back our way. Would free up a bit of cash for the Ms and their Ohtani and other International player pursuits.

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you could stick any left handed pitcher in PNC park and he will play above expectations

Ron Villone was an opening day starter here

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In reality though, way I saw it was that they had a mid-rotation starter, a backend starter, and a plethora of backend starter options. Now they have a mid-rotation starter, and a plethora of backend starters.

As a whole, I think they needed at least two starters regardless, even including Velasquez if he comes back. I think overall they're still in a better situation than they were last year when they were having to sign the Caleb Smith's of the world to fill-in Triple-A innings and be a depth option. Where injuries made them have to rely on a Bido. Their success or failure will ultimately come down to if their existing depth takes steps forward, as pitchers like Ro and Ortiz did not last year.

As of now, presuming it's as bad as expected, I can foresee and OD rotation of Keller, Quinn, Ortiz, and two FA's. Ortiz possible interchangeable with Ro, considering Ro is out of options.

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I kind of feel that Ro gets a spot, and he has until Skenes is 'ready' to figure something out. Maybe a shorter leash before the Oviedo thing, now the Pirates may be forced to give him till then.

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I could see a scenario where the loser of a battle for last rotation spot gets placed in the bullpen, between Ortiz and Ro

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I can see that too. Can also see that depending on Oviedo. Ortiz has options, so might want to keep more arms stretched out, send him to AAA as a depth guy to start.

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What happens is Sean Sullivan ascends to take his rightful place as the leader of the rotation.

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ALL ABOARD!

*Hype train GIF

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Nov 14, 2023Liked by NolaJeffy(BnP)

On today's episode of BoD Squad delusions ft BnP

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I have a good brain

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Nov 14, 2023Liked by NolaJeffy(BnP)

You sure that Igor didn’t pick up Abby someone’s brain for you?😁

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The audacity!!!

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Audacity, Isn’t that the streaming service the Bucs flagship radio station uses to stream their game broadcasts? 😁

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It's

AUDACY

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It’s bad enough that we have trouble getting to five. But we also need to think about options 6-10, given the extreme likelihood of ineffectiveness/injury.

For the Pirates, that basically means that Jackson Wolf, Carmen Mlodzinski, and Waiver Wire Pick Up Number 4 are guaranteed to get starts.

I’m not saying that not having a #7 starter is worse than not having a #2 starter, exactly, but it’s a knock-on effect that results in guys who have no business starting being pushed into the role.

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Bido, Wolf, Falter, Mlod, Andre Jackson, Nicolas, Sullivan, Meis, Shortridge, Alldred. None of them great options but what we'll see!

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They are in a real pickle to use technical terms. I truly thought they had good depth last year when I looked at the team mid -March (pre-Brubaker injury). They had Keller, Contreras, Brubaker, and Hill that I was confident could be decent. I was ok with Vazquez getting a shot knowing that Oviedo was IMO just as deserving. You had the 7th man Ortiz who already had small MLB experience and the two quality depth prospects in Burrow and Priester expected to arrive and shine. Ouch that plan went badly but looking at it today still seemed reasonable. Long post, but I am stumped even as you list the candidates. I could label so many of them 'Meh' and would not even had them in my top 9 last year. Priester and Contreras are the big disappointments because (continuing with 'Woe is us') if they had performed as expected we would be 3 deep and maybe 4 with Oviedo. I'm a broken record but every time you see off-season outlooks / plans there are about (made up #s) 40 roster spots or more in need of depth / quality arms and about 20 that seem available. So.. I provided no solution / answer. This may be one of Ben's biggest challenges as we are no longer tanking and I can see at least options at most other positions. That wave of A/AA starters needs to have great years!

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Reposting this here because it fits better than the R5 thread:

OT but I looked MLBTR's likely trade candidates and Top 50 FAs and here are SP candidates from both lists plus James Paxton as an honorable mention:

Likely Trade Candidates:

Corbin Burnes

Shane Bieber

Tyler Glasnow

Dylan Cease

Bryan Woo, Emerson Hancock, Bryce Miller from Seattle

Paul Blackburn

Alek Manoah

Top 50 SP FA Candidates:

Yamamoto

Snell

Nola

Montgomery

Gray

Imanaga

ERod

Giolito

Stroman

Lugo

Flaherty

Wacha

Maeda

Cuban Yariel Rodriguez

Clevinger

Lorenzen

Manaea

Mahle

Montas

Severino

James Paxton

I think we've got to take a shot at landing one of Imanaga, Erod or Paxton in that order of preference. Would be nice to land one of Flaherty, Montas or Severino. Would be good to swing a trade for someone with control like Bryce Miller, too.

Paxton, Montas and Miller would likely cost us 1/$11M + 1/$13M + maybe a Triolo, Moreta, Harrington trade package for Miller (or Termarr Johnson solo if they hold out for a bat) so that's the likely floor. I'd be willing to bet that—if healthy—Paxton pitches better than Imanage in 2024 but it's a big if.

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I hate to propose trading away one of my favorites, but build a trade around Suwinski for Cease. Do teams put any value on hometown kids? It would take a little more than Suwinski, but that could be a prospect a year or two away, say Harrington, since the Sox don't appear to be anywhere close to contending.

Then acquire an elite defender for CF and let Davis develop in RF, and we're clearly a stronger team even though we would have lost a popular player.

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1) Trade Hank and Jared Jones

2) Sign Lee.

3) Sign E-Rod.

4) Win the division.

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Hank's going to be more valuable than Endy. I'm sure of it.

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If he doesn’t keep playing the outfield like Herman Munster, he might be. But you gotta give to get.

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Kyle Gibson is another cheap 4th starter who will get you innings

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Agree with your conclusion here. I think we add 2 outside SPs, same as we’d expected/hoped before.

Now instead of #5 being one of Roansy/Priester/Ortiz, it’s expanded to #4&5 and some of those multi-inning guys start to come into play. Falter, Bido, Jackson can help fill some innings & I could even see Jones (can be sent back down at some point to preserve service time) getting an early season tryout while we hope for quick returns and good debuts from Brubaker, Burrows & Skenes.

Not ideal, but better now than later, hope Oviedo can be ready for Opening Day ‘25.

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