With Harrington return, Altoona rotation getting crowded
What to do with numerous starting options at Double-A?
Heading into the season, the Altoona rotation was one of the more intriguing position groups in the Pirates’ system.
When you combine in multiple national outlets, they have up to three different top 100 prospects, and another was added to the 40-man roster this offseason.
Things haven’t started the best. Thomas Harrington started the year on the injured list, and the rest of the rotation hasn’t been off to the kind of start you would want.
Regardless, with Harrington returning on Sunday, that creates quite the cluster for starting pitchers. While they could always promote someone, you could make a case that no one has earned a shot at Triple-A yet.
It could be a type of demotion by promotion, but before we get into that, let’s review the current options and how they’ve performed this season.
The Top Prospects
Bubba Chandler
Season Stats: 24 IP, 29 K%, 13 BB%, .209 AVG, 4.13 ERA, 3.70 xFIP, 12.5 SwStr%
Chandler's pitching early in 2024 has been a disappointment compared to how he pitched down the stretch last year. He’s having issues with his fastball control and command, which led to him not making it out of the first inning in a previous start this season.
Overall, he’s pitched reasonably well outside of the walks. It’s been mostly about keeping those in check. The hitters aren’t fairing well outside the walks, and his xFIP, which is a good 40 points better than his ERA, shows he’s pitching better than expected.
His finish to last season may make it easy to remember just how raw Chandler still is as a prospect and that he’s still just 21 and pitching at an advanced level.
There was still going to be some tough outings as he fine tunes everything, but even with the walks, not much to be concerned of.
Anthony Solometo
Season Stats: 19 IP, 17.2 K%, 17.2 BB%, .250 AVG, 5.68 ERA, 4.83 xFIP, 11.9 SwStr%
It’s been a rough start to the season for Solometo, who has currently struck out as many hitters as he has walks, which is concerning for someone who advanced so quickly through the minors thanks to his control.
He hit a little bit of a hiccup late season in Double-A, and it’s been somewhat of the same in 2024.
Solometo has seemed like a command over stuff type of pitcher, so it’s always going to be a little concerning when part of that isn’t there.
Something that John Dreker pointed out previously about lefties in the lower levels, that it isn’t completely unheard of for someone like Solometo to fly through the lower levels only to have issues once he hits Double-A and beyond.
He also had a few set backs in Spring, so he could be a bit behind, but also we are in our second month of the season, so you probably want to start seeing things start to click
Thomas Harrington
Season Stats: 3 IP, 44 K%, 11 BB%, 0.00 ERA, .000 AVG, 2.91 xFIP, 13.9 SwStr%
Sample size is small, but hard to not be impressed with his first outing in Double-A, against a lineup that gave most of the pitching staff fits over the week.
Harrington snuck into ESPNs top 100 list, and is someone I’ve been higher on when it comes to his upside.
He’s not going to blow any hitters with his fastball, but has plus life, especially up in the zone, that allows him to miss a lot of bats, and pairs that with a plus slider, along with a lower arm slot.
Due to his college background, it would not have shocked me if he kind of distanced himself from this group had he started the season on time.
Braxton Ashcraft
Season Stats: 25.1 IP, 20.4 K%, 3.7 BB%, .279 AVG, 5.35 ERA, 3.35 xFIP, 15 SwStr%
He got off to a rough start, but his SwStr% and xFIP show that he’s pitched a little better than the numbers originally suggest. The walk rate has still been elite, and we are seeing him start to pitch deeper into games.
After not throwing more than four innings last year, he’s completed at least five in each of his last three starts.
That included five shutout innings this past week against Somerset.
Other Options
Sean Sullivan
Season Stats: 27.2 IP, 19.8 K%, 7.8 BB%, .238 AVG, 3.90 ERA, 4.58 xFIP, 11.9 SwStr%
He’s pitched okay, but nothing really has stood out so far, which is about on par for his game. There was the game against a very good Bowie lineup he posted five shutout innings, but did only strike out one hitter.
If there’s a guy that makes sense to move to Indianapolis, it’d probably be him, solely off him also spending all of 2023 in Altoona. He did pitch in relief on Sunday, picking up a save, and I had mentioned previously about him perhaps being a reliever at some point, so that would be something to watch.
Po-Yu Chen
Season Stats: 26 IP, 11.9 K%, 8.3 BB%, .274 AVG, 5.85 ERA, 5.60 xFIP, 9.1 SwStr%
I’ve never been overly high on Chen, and wasn’t expected great results in Altoona, but I don’t even I expected him to look how he’s looked at times here.
The fastball hasn’t been something he’s been able to get hitters out with in the lower levels, and if he’s not locating the breaking pitches, there just isn’t much there. He did pitch better this past week, which helped a lot of these numbers improve from what they originally were.
Multi-Inning Guys
Drake Fellows
Season Stats: 7 IP, 19.4 K%, 16.1 BB%, .160 AVG, 2.57 ERA, 5.25 xFIP, 12.2 SwStr%
Fellows was promoted recently from Greensboro, making one start and coming out in relief the other. He’s dealt with a lot of injuries and is already 26. It’s less likely he’ll get anymore starting opportunities, but should be a multi-inning guy, or slide in with another injury.
Nick Dombkowski
Season Stats: 11 IP, 12.8 K%, 10.6 BB%, .171 AVG, 2.45 ERA, 5.35 xFIP, 11.9 SwStr%
Signed as an undrafted reliever out of college, Dombkowski actually became an option out of the rotation last season, ending with him pitching in the Arizona Fall League.
He’s still a guy can throw multiple innings, but also on the older end like Fellows and more of depth option at this point.
What to do?
The Curve has dealt with a six man-rotation for the majority of the season, which at first seemed like it had to do with multiple rain outs early on.
They’ve had a week or two to kind of smooth that out, but are still in an almost six man mode right now. There was another doubleheader this week, so again, that could be why.
Going to a six-man rotation is something they do in Bradenton, but that’s it when it comes to the full season affiliates.
It doesn’t seem ideal to do it at this point in the minors, but until things full shape out it could be a path they go. Harrington is just coming back from an injury, so a six-man rotation could help ease him back in.
After that, there will be decisions to be made, but that is something that can be determined then. By then, you would hope it will be a clearer picture of someone that could move up, or even shifted to the bullpen.
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Murph, you need a story on Drake Fellows. He was on the Vandy team with Delay and was the Friday night starter. He got diagnosed with cancer right after his season (probably pitched in the SEC with cancer). two years removed, comes back and has TJ. terrible luck
The Pirate Rotation has not been this strong since the playoff years. Keller, Jones, Perez, and Falter have all done well. Gonzales started well, but is injured and Priester and others have seen time in the Rotation. Adding Paul Skenes means that the Rotation could be set for at least the next few months. Throw in Mike Burrows coming back off TJ.
Keeping the 6 Man Rotation at AA for a few months should not have any negative effect. They can always go to a 5 man Rotation in July and keep that in place through the end of the season.