I don’t necessarily understand the rationale of trading right now. If you’re a seller, wouldn’t it benefit you to wait until closer to the deadline when teams are more likely to be desperate to make a move in order to drive the price up?
I guess the argument in favor is to hurry up and try to work out a deal before the prices for players is driven up.
Regardless, I don’t feel like this team is say, one impact bat away from making a deep run in the playoffs. So going all in on a Robert Jr. or whoever else might give the impression they’re all in and make fans happy, I just don’t necessarily know the drastic difference it would make..
By the way, is Kervin Pichardo a prospect? I’ve so given up on Altoona that I don’t even check their box scores anymore unless Bubba is pitching. But per the weekly Noah HInes minor league column in the P-G, he’s hitting .335 and is only 22. And he plays short. What’s the deal? Forgive me, but I had no idea this guy even existed.
EDIT: Sorry, he’s hitting .338 THIS MONTH. Anyway, the question stands: is this guy worth paying attention to?
I'm guessing you mean the .385 over the last week? Or .338 in the month? He's been alright. Striking out 27.6% and walking only 6.0%. And he plays shortstop, some. Split pretty evenly between 2B/SS/3B, but he's alright. He's been one of my points of contention when they have him at 3B. Letting balls through and such he should easily have.
I was surprised too, actually, that he was only 22 when I looked other day. I guess worth keeping an eye on?
If nobody signs Bauer this deadline, he's never pitching in MLB again for sure. With Sandoval and Luzardo going down, it's basically Crochet and a whole bunch of nothing for starting pitching. If the Bucs had the guts to sign Bauer to a 3-4 year deal they could trade one of Keller or Jones for an absolute kings ransom. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/06/the-rotation-trade-market-takes-two-more-hits.html
Good God, dude. This bullshit again. You come on here outta nowhere with ridiculous takes and anyone that doesn’t agree with you works for the front office. There’s a reason all 30 teams won’t sign Bauer. You’re starting to come off as someone who is unstable. You have like 6 takes and you just repeat them.
I don't disagree with Wilbur's State of the System but *do* think he's selling short their capacity for trades.
There's plenty of meat left on this bone. It's just also gonna leave them gutted, and that's okay.
Fully staffing a big league roster AND leaving the pipeline full for the future needs to finally break with these guys. It's not gonna happen. They have a playoff-ready rotation and need for offense. It's not gonna get any closer than this.
Totally agree. Even after the Archer trade I am done with prospect hoarding. I tried to find this yesterday, but failed: Peter Gammons in his heyday did a review of deadline deals for ESPN. I believe it was in the early to mid-00s. His conclusion: the team trading prospects for proven major leaguers almost always WON these deals, even in the mid-term. Prospects are unproven and they usually fail. The baseball community is seriously overvaluing prospects even if the occasional catastrophe (Jeff Bagwell, John Smoltz …) does happen.
I wish I could find this piece and wonder if it’s been updated with more recent data.
"The baseball community is seriously overvaluing prospects even if the occasional catastrophe (Jeff Bagwell, John Smoltz …) does happen."
This. I think it is more an issue of ownership exerting pressure over management to keep costs down though than the collective community of GMs overvaluing prospects. Whatever the case, your statement is spot on IMO.
Don't really disagree. I just don't see the capacity for any primo acquisitions. Connor Joe is a good comp for what they might do. He basically cost nothing. There's more of a seller's market now, but guys like Barco, Reilly and Harrington could be used to get maybe a slightly improved Joe. Maybe a Ralph, too.
As I've been saying, the performance they're getting from about half their position players is so abysmally bad that it's almost impossible for an acquisition NOT to be an upgrade. Joe would be a massive upgrade. A lot of fans seem to think that if you can't get a future first-ballot HOFer, there's no point, but only a teeny tiny fraction of in-season trades involve guys like that. There's a reason GMs now have a horde of assistants. F***ing find somebody because, yeah, they're just so freaking close right now. Give Skenes, Keller and Jones anything faintly resembling a ML lineup and they should be fighting with the Brewers, who sure as hell don't look invincible to me.
I think the easiest path is through the Marlins, if Nutting will eat salary. Get Bell, Scott and Sánchez. Bell takes over at 1st, send them back Tellez and throw in most of his remaining salary. (If he gets hot in July they have another trade chip)
Scott should only require a decent prospect and a lottery ticket.
Sánchez isn't great but would be better for big side platoon than what they currently have. (ops between .750 and .800 against rhp's). I'm not excited for any of them but the 3 would be upgrades to the current roster. The only one that's going to cost prospects is Scott. I'd offer some combination 2 or 3 of Peguero, Bae, Olivares, Suwinski, Cheng or Williams from the 40 man, and pretty much any 3 minor leaguers minus 6 or 7 like Bubba, Ashcraft, Harrington, Johnson, White or McAdoo and would probably add 1 of them to get it done.
It would be going for it, I would applaud the effort, he has been elite at the mlb level. I actually like Jazz and Bleday better, Robert is an all or nothing with the injuries.
Glad you mentioned the fact that Robert has had injury issues. If we are going to offer 3 healthy, young Prospects, AND pick up a large salary, we should be expecting to get a guy who could possibly be healthy enough to get 135+ games per year. Do we get the Robert of 2021, 2022, and 2024 where I am not sure he played in 100 games in any of those seasons, or the Robert of 2023 when he played 145 games? Bleday could be a very reasonable option.
Bleday shouldn't cost as much, less on hitters more on pitching. Probably 1 of Aahcraft or Harrington, 1 of Solometo or Barco, and a lottery ticket or 2.
They may even take a Bae, Harrington, Barco plus a lottery ticket, just to get an instant replacement for Bleday (they like those speedy types).
I also can't help wondering whether there are people looking at Luis Peralta and wondering, damn, why's he still in class A? Maybe by Sept he could help us in the bigs.
He should be on his way to Altoona if not Indy just to see. His path to the majors is out of the pen and it's past time for his tortoise pace to be ramped up.
Currently there are 3 to 5 teams that would be open to trades: ChiSox, Marlins, A's then the 2 maybe teams Angel's and Rockies. 2 of the teams you would be looking at considerable overpays ChiSox and A's to get the upgrades needed. The Marlins would still require an overpay but not by a lot, it would require some salary eating though.
Here's the trade I would try to make now. Bell, Scott and Sanchez from the Marlins for a quantity over quality proposal. Send them Peguero, Jebb, Cheng, Sullivan, Reed, Solometo and the cherry on top Tellez and the pirates eat all but the minimum salary as well. Heck they can have Grandal too.
And to be fair, the Fangraphs list is kind of nutty. I think their clear staff shortage is leaving them to kind of cliff notes their lists. I also think the pitching is, and will continue to do so, take a step forward. As I commented to an odd David Todd tweet, considering you have 3/5ths (health be with them) of the rotation nailed down for the foreseeable future, they can easily part with a few starters and not miss a beat.
To get both? Hell yeah. Idk what's in the Miami water, but they clearly have no idea WTF they're doing. Bleday is a whole other player now. Rooker and Bleday are the Pirates FO's two favorite things. Controllable and cheap. I was never really a fan of him, but, would the Marlins want to trade Jacob Berry for a random complex player? I feel like all their players are tainted by that org and just need out.
Miami is where good college hitters go to regress. I really think the A's just looked at what changed between Bleday in college and with the Marlins. He had hand movement before his load at Vandy (more timing and keeping loose) while in Miami his hands were still before the load, the hand movement is back and he is hitting. Sometimes it's the little things.
Just added to my previous post but go back and look at highlights from Bleday in college to Miami to Oakland. He'll occasionally move his hands preload in Miami but it was definitely something they were trying to eliminate. Trying to fix something that wasn't broke.
I note that Axial Plaz did not make Fangraphs Top 40 Pirate Prospects which surprises me. I ah e been high on him and hopeful since he had 1000 OPS at 16. I have never seen him play so what do I know, but extreme early success often means something is in there. I am a Plaz believer. There are a number of international guys whom I am now hopeful can emerge. The Pirates need that to happen.
Scouts are afraid he's maxed out physically. The short, stocky build bugs them. I'm seeing a s***load more power from him this year than last, so I'd just like to see where he goes. He's STILL only 18.
Starting to wonder if McAdoo may replace Hayes at 3rd. I wanted McAdoo in the OF but Hayes is a problem for the Pirates especially if the Gold Glove defense is now gone.
NS9 this morning talked about going the way of rentals. I’m warming up to that option. You don’t have to give up much to get a few guys.
How much would take to get varsho, Pham or ward, and Bell? They would replace Taylor with Varsho, Suwinski with Ward or Pham and Tellez with Bell. I think that helps the offense immensely. Gives you power and healthy OPS’. I would love another bullpen arm but I think the Calvary is coming if bednar can get right after the injury.
Just quick clarification... Varsho is not a rental. I mention that only because that significantly changes the purchase price. Plus to be honest I am not sure why we would think Jays would be unloading him other than if they just blow things up.
Yeah he was one they mentioned but he isn’t a free agent until 2027. However, I was comparing him to guys like Roberts or Bleday who aren’t free agents until 2029. He’s also not as good.
If the pirates are willing to eat Bell's salary he'd be cheap prospect wise. Varsho isn't a good hitter but has some pop and has excellent defense. Pham is probably the best hitter of the 3 but has been a head case from time to time.
I'd check with Miami on Bell, Nardi or Scott and one of their outfielders, preferably Jazz but Sanchez would still be a left handed platoon upgrade.
Short term Bell, Scott and Sanchez shouldn't be overwhelming in prospect capital if Nutting would cover their salaries. It would still take an overpay but wouldn't cost the top prospects.
I agree. If the Pirates eat Bell's salary, Miami would have to include a prospect (or a player) to Pittsburgh to get that part done. He is not having a great year, and he is owed a significant amount of money. In general, if the Pirates choose to take on a salary (they won't), they would be able to get a significant upgrade without including Johnson or Chandler (they will not trade either).
Pham also only has one setting on the dial and that's 11. He holds other players accountable around him. I think this lackadaisical roster of lowkey dudes could use that aside from maybe Skenes and Jones.
I'd be happy with Pham, I could see him blow up though within the club house if he's producing and the offense is still struggling. They would need other pieces besides just him to get the runs up to where they need to be.
So you're talking Holderman for Bleday or Chandler, Suwinski, Bae. Nothing much for Pham and Sheets. Pham could absolutely go nuclear with this namby pamby coaching staff though. Another run per game so far this season has our offense up there around the Brewers but I like our pitching better. Make it so!
Varsho isn’t a good for average hitter, but he has power and plays great defense. He’d be an instant upgrade over Taylor and Suwinski and they’d have him I think until 2027. I like the guys you mentioned except Sanchez.
I agree and I said that, "isn't a good hitter but has pop and excellent defense". He's not a rental though, under control for 2 more years past this one.
I'm not high on him (Sanchez) either but he would be a cheap platoon upgrade in right field with Joe.
He has 2.6 bWAR this year. I think he’d be a major upgrade over any one in the outfield not named Reynolds. He isn’t my ideal candidate but I wouldn’t hate it.
There’s no problem with having prospects graduate to the majors, after all that is the point of having good prospects. The problem is that the prospects don’t fit together to make up an actual major league team when they’re virtually all pitchers. Everyone says don’t draft due to need, but ignoring needs gets you gigantic holes in the roster.
Unless you’re willing to fill those holes with trades or free agents, which the Pirates either haven’t done or done a lousy job of, you wind up with an outfield of Olivares, Taylor and Suwinski along with the utility guy named Joe and a first base position that is unsettled at best. Those kinds of holes would sink any boat even if the rest of the lineup was top notch, which of course it is not. The Pirates top outfield prospects are White at #32 along with an 18 and a 19 year old who may or may not ever develop and even if they do it’s 5-6 years down the road.
Combine that with a manager who appears to have no idea how to motivate players to actually, you know, play and who himself seems to not be paying attention much of the time and you wind up with a losing team along with lame excuses that often don’t even address the questionable issue.
The bottom line (as it appears to me anyway) is that if BC and Nutting don’t follow through with adding some quality position players to this organization there is no way the Pirates are going to win this year, next year or any other year in the foreseeable future. When the first words out of the mouth of the GM after his boss proclaims the need for better players is “internal options,” how much hope can there really be because there are none.
Lonnie White Jr is getting consistent plate appearances in Hi A and it would be difficult for me to think he will not improve. A two sport athlete who chose to sign with the Pirates out of HS in 2021, he was very green! In 2021, 2022, and 2023 he amassed a total of just more than 300 PA in the FCL and A. He will soon reach that level of PA just at A+ this year. So, yes he is learning on the fly. Very good to see him 3rd on the team with 10 HR and 7 of those HR's were on the road, and not GBO "super" fly balls. He is also playing an excellent CF - best on the team. I'll take that defense and plan that the bat will follow - not in 2024, which is his age 21 season. The key for him is to stay healthy and keep getting more PA before heading to AA in 2025.
And, Charles McAdoo has been the steal of the 2023 Draft, and he has not shown any tendency to slow down at AA. His ability to play 3B as well as other IF positions sets him up to be a Utility IF with a strong bat!
"He’s shown the ability to go the other way, especially with breaking pitches, yet turn on a pitch with authority."
Don't worry about that because if he makes it to Pittsburgh then Haines and Shelton will cure Mc Adoo of that hitting ability. He will be standing there taking strikes he could drive the other way while waiting for that pitch in his 'hitting zone' 🤯
It would be hard for me to think that the influence of Haines would not apply to all levels of MiLB Affiliates - can't let them get to the burgh and then try to change habits. To be honest, I saw the year Gonzales put up at AAA and then doubled down by carrying that with him to the Pirates, and I thought somebody in that hitting group (headed up by Haines) must have helped him this year, because his confidence level was on the floor last year. I know he has hit a wall lately, but at least two EBH were stolen from him by super OF plays. Still making solid contact and the hits will come!
Milwaukee has the lowest swinging rate in the majors, and the highest called strike rates.
So they take more pitches than anyone in baseball, the difference is when they do swing, they make contact. They have one of the lowest swinging rate in baseball and a solid contact rate.
They take pitches, more often than the Pirates, they just make contact far more often.
Gotta find the balance in it. Just taking pitches isn't the ONLY issue, it's not making contact when those pitches do come that has been too. The Pirates have the fifth worst swinging strike rate in baseball.
Also, the two teams that swing the most in baseball? Colordao and Miami, two of the worst teams in baseball. So just 'swing more' doesn't guarantee more success.
You bring up the Brewers...the fact that they have become *more* selective since Haines left seems to make it pretty clear this was never an Andy Haines thing. These are qualities that Matt Arnold and the Brewers seek.
And as you note, they're actually good at it!
Triolo, Hayes, Suwinski, Tellez, and Taylor are currently the hitters underperforming their pre-season projections by more than 20 points of wOBA.
Every single one of them - every single one - is currently running *more* aggressive approaches as judged by rate of swinging at and taking called strikes.
Where do I imply anyone should just "swing more". The actual idea of baseball is to hit a pitched ball that is hittable in a zone deemed hittable, make contact and put the ball in play. If a rh hitter gets a hit on the right side or a lh hitter gets a hit on the left side it's still a hit. It's tough for your your team to hit two or three run homers if hardly anyone can get on base. If they want the hitters to run up the pitch count then protecting the plate is a better way to do it then standing at home plate like a statue.
Who said they want hitters to run up the pitch count? You get butthurt at Murph and then casually drop that last line like it's fact, lol.
You people craft this entire narrative like a fuckin soap opera and then get super offended the minute anyone even lightly pushes back and I find it absolutely hilarious.
Mostly agree on the situation Cherington's put himself in wrt improving the roster. He does have some pitching he could trade but will be reluctant to.
Idk the entirety of the health of all included, but GMBC's biggest asset is definitely going to be arms.
Beginning with the rotation, Perez already made a rehab start and is likely to return shortly. IIRC, they said Marco is close to beginning rehab. Now, they could go 6-man rotation to help limit JJ and Skenes, but you'll have: JJ, Skenes, Keller, Falter, Perez, and Marco.
Again unsure of complete health, I believe Borucki is close to rehabbing. I'll leave Stratton out, cause his injury looked potentially more problematic, and if we presume 6-man rotation that leaves 7 bullpen spots that in a couple weeks could have in the mix: Bednar, Chapman, Holderman, Oritz, Nicolas, Mlodzinski, and Borucki.
Then there's quick fill-in's Ryan or Bruihl. Fleming and Santana have no options. Ashcraft is a depth rotation option. Then in some capacity whether starter or bullpen, you could have Priester or Burrows, who is working his way back. Plop Stratton here if he begins rehabbing in short order.
Then looking towards 2025 you'll have Oviedo coming back at some point. There's Harrington, Bubba, Solo, Sullivan, Barco, Reilly, and possibly Ercolani and Dotel who could all be Double-A or higher by start of 2025. There's a Perachi, who might move to the pen. Woods is already up in Double-A, and Luis Peralta should be soon.
All that to say, they should be wide open to moving some arms. Starters or relief at both the MLB or minor league level. They should be more than willing to listen if there's a quality MLB player with term to be had for Termarr and Bubba.
I'd forgotten Stratton had the arm injury, thanks.
I think we'd all be pretty disappointed in the return for Termarr if he was traded at this deadline. Guys with a 20 present hit value just don't fetch much no matter how many Tony Gwynn/Vlad Jr comps they get draft year.
The Pirates would sell low on Johnson if they were to move him now. For Johnson to rebuild his value, he would need a whole year of high quality production. But, if he produces, why trade him? I haven't wholly given up on him, but it's reasonable to doubt the quality of his hit tool at this moment. He needs to take a step forward.
The hit tool side of things makes it tough, but he's kind of just building a resume of being a slow starter that falls off top 100 lists, then second half blasts his way back up. Since beginning of May he has a near identical 17.3% BB-rate and 19.9% K-rate. A shade under .800 OPS with a 130 wRC+. Add in he only turned 20 thirteen days ago. He was so high profile that his prospect hype is probably going to drastically swing with his trends.
Since June 1st, he has a 13.4% BB-rate and 22.0% K-rate. An .875 OPS and 144 wRC+ to go with it. Part of me feels like, as we mentioned before with how Yordany's season began, he just came out swinging for promotion after a pretty electric spring.
Well I think it has to do with the fact that they're doing as well as they are on the pitching side in all things, while the polar opposite for hitting. And unfortunately the hitting has been so bad it's overshadowing the pitching, because coupled with less than ideal defense, it's basically dragging down the gains made with pitching.
I do you one better, the hitting prospects never developed, just two years ago the system was heavy on the hitting side, Cruz, Peguero, Gonzales, Mitchell, CSN, Castro, etc, I never thought they were all gonna make it, but was hoping for a lot more than that
O's just signed Garrett Cooper which I think suggests they'll trade either Mayo or O'Hearn
I don’t necessarily understand the rationale of trading right now. If you’re a seller, wouldn’t it benefit you to wait until closer to the deadline when teams are more likely to be desperate to make a move in order to drive the price up?
I guess the argument in favor is to hurry up and try to work out a deal before the prices for players is driven up.
Regardless, I don’t feel like this team is say, one impact bat away from making a deep run in the playoffs. So going all in on a Robert Jr. or whoever else might give the impression they’re all in and make fans happy, I just don’t necessarily know the drastic difference it would make..
I agree, not the time to sell the farm on one guy who has injury issues.
By the way, is Kervin Pichardo a prospect? I’ve so given up on Altoona that I don’t even check their box scores anymore unless Bubba is pitching. But per the weekly Noah HInes minor league column in the P-G, he’s hitting .335 and is only 22. And he plays short. What’s the deal? Forgive me, but I had no idea this guy even existed.
EDIT: Sorry, he’s hitting .338 THIS MONTH. Anyway, the question stands: is this guy worth paying attention to?
I'm guessing you mean the .385 over the last week? Or .338 in the month? He's been alright. Striking out 27.6% and walking only 6.0%. And he plays shortstop, some. Split pretty evenly between 2B/SS/3B, but he's alright. He's been one of my points of contention when they have him at 3B. Letting balls through and such he should easily have.
I was surprised too, actually, that he was only 22 when I looked other day. I guess worth keeping an eye on?
Yeah, sorry. I edited my original post to reflect that these gaudy numbers are since June 1.
If nobody signs Bauer this deadline, he's never pitching in MLB again for sure. With Sandoval and Luzardo going down, it's basically Crochet and a whole bunch of nothing for starting pitching. If the Bucs had the guts to sign Bauer to a 3-4 year deal they could trade one of Keller or Jones for an absolute kings ransom. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/06/the-rotation-trade-market-takes-two-more-hits.html
Why not keep Jones and Keller and let Bauer continue to pitch in the Mexican Penal League?
Because it'd be awesome if our pitching stayed as good and our hitting got much better? Are you greatWhiteAngus?
What is white angus?
A person who probably works for the front office who's on record preferring having a mediocre team to signing Bauer.
Good God, dude. This bullshit again. You come on here outta nowhere with ridiculous takes and anyone that doesn’t agree with you works for the front office. There’s a reason all 30 teams won’t sign Bauer. You’re starting to come off as someone who is unstable. You have like 6 takes and you just repeat them.
You get _really_ upset when I suggest the FO has influence bots on fan blogs. Hrm.
I'm pretty sure I just said "if Bauer doesn't get signed at this trade deadline, he never will".
I don't disagree with Wilbur's State of the System but *do* think he's selling short their capacity for trades.
There's plenty of meat left on this bone. It's just also gonna leave them gutted, and that's okay.
Fully staffing a big league roster AND leaving the pipeline full for the future needs to finally break with these guys. It's not gonna happen. They have a playoff-ready rotation and need for offense. It's not gonna get any closer than this.
Just fucking do it.
Totally agree. Even after the Archer trade I am done with prospect hoarding. I tried to find this yesterday, but failed: Peter Gammons in his heyday did a review of deadline deals for ESPN. I believe it was in the early to mid-00s. His conclusion: the team trading prospects for proven major leaguers almost always WON these deals, even in the mid-term. Prospects are unproven and they usually fail. The baseball community is seriously overvaluing prospects even if the occasional catastrophe (Jeff Bagwell, John Smoltz …) does happen.
I wish I could find this piece and wonder if it’s been updated with more recent data.
"The baseball community is seriously overvaluing prospects even if the occasional catastrophe (Jeff Bagwell, John Smoltz …) does happen."
This. I think it is more an issue of ownership exerting pressure over management to keep costs down though than the collective community of GMs overvaluing prospects. Whatever the case, your statement is spot on IMO.
BA reached the same conclusion you’re citing.
Don't really disagree. I just don't see the capacity for any primo acquisitions. Connor Joe is a good comp for what they might do. He basically cost nothing. There's more of a seller's market now, but guys like Barco, Reilly and Harrington could be used to get maybe a slightly improved Joe. Maybe a Ralph, too.
As I've been saying, the performance they're getting from about half their position players is so abysmally bad that it's almost impossible for an acquisition NOT to be an upgrade. Joe would be a massive upgrade. A lot of fans seem to think that if you can't get a future first-ballot HOFer, there's no point, but only a teeny tiny fraction of in-season trades involve guys like that. There's a reason GMs now have a horde of assistants. F***ing find somebody because, yeah, they're just so freaking close right now. Give Skenes, Keller and Jones anything faintly resembling a ML lineup and they should be fighting with the Brewers, who sure as hell don't look invincible to me.
we should be offering up no more in prospect value than Barco, Ashcraft, Reilly and Harrington
I think the easiest path is through the Marlins, if Nutting will eat salary. Get Bell, Scott and Sánchez. Bell takes over at 1st, send them back Tellez and throw in most of his remaining salary. (If he gets hot in July they have another trade chip)
Scott should only require a decent prospect and a lottery ticket.
Sánchez isn't great but would be better for big side platoon than what they currently have. (ops between .750 and .800 against rhp's). I'm not excited for any of them but the 3 would be upgrades to the current roster. The only one that's going to cost prospects is Scott. I'd offer some combination 2 or 3 of Peguero, Bae, Olivares, Suwinski, Cheng or Williams from the 40 man, and pretty much any 3 minor leaguers minus 6 or 7 like Bubba, Ashcraft, Harrington, Johnson, White or McAdoo and would probably add 1 of them to get it done.
Mackey said some scout suggested Termarr, White and Barco for Robert.
We also have the A Comp Pick which is also tradeable - could be more valuable to a rebuilding team.
It would be going for it, I would applaud the effort, he has been elite at the mlb level. I actually like Jazz and Bleday better, Robert is an all or nothing with the injuries.
Glad you mentioned the fact that Robert has had injury issues. If we are going to offer 3 healthy, young Prospects, AND pick up a large salary, we should be expecting to get a guy who could possibly be healthy enough to get 135+ games per year. Do we get the Robert of 2021, 2022, and 2024 where I am not sure he played in 100 games in any of those seasons, or the Robert of 2023 when he played 145 games? Bleday could be a very reasonable option.
Bleday shouldn't cost as much, less on hitters more on pitching. Probably 1 of Aahcraft or Harrington, 1 of Solometo or Barco, and a lottery ticket or 2.
They may even take a Bae, Harrington, Barco plus a lottery ticket, just to get an instant replacement for Bleday (they like those speedy types).
tellez is a second half hitter
and has a .900+ ops in june so far
I also can't help wondering whether there are people looking at Luis Peralta and wondering, damn, why's he still in class A? Maybe by Sept he could help us in the bigs.
Of course, the Pirates should be wondering that.
He should be on his way to Altoona if not Indy just to see. His path to the majors is out of the pen and it's past time for his tortoise pace to be ramped up.
Currently there are 3 to 5 teams that would be open to trades: ChiSox, Marlins, A's then the 2 maybe teams Angel's and Rockies. 2 of the teams you would be looking at considerable overpays ChiSox and A's to get the upgrades needed. The Marlins would still require an overpay but not by a lot, it would require some salary eating though.
Here's the trade I would try to make now. Bell, Scott and Sanchez from the Marlins for a quantity over quality proposal. Send them Peguero, Jebb, Cheng, Sullivan, Reed, Solometo and the cherry on top Tellez and the pirates eat all but the minimum salary as well. Heck they can have Grandal too.
And to be fair, the Fangraphs list is kind of nutty. I think their clear staff shortage is leaving them to kind of cliff notes their lists. I also think the pitching is, and will continue to do so, take a step forward. As I commented to an odd David Todd tweet, considering you have 3/5ths (health be with them) of the rotation nailed down for the foreseeable future, they can easily part with a few starters and not miss a beat.
Nobody say the "H" word.
Would you do Bleday & Rooker for a package headlined by Bubba Chandler?
Rooker's profile is scary with the K rate, but I'd rather go with him than say Josh Bell.
Chandler is worth half a Bleday. Running it through BTV:
Chandler
Suwinski
Solometo
Ashcraft
Brannigan
gets you Bleday and Rooker.
I'd do it, but unfortunately the Pirates more than likely will be out of the race by the deadline.
Sure seems like it, yep.
To get both? Hell yeah. Idk what's in the Miami water, but they clearly have no idea WTF they're doing. Bleday is a whole other player now. Rooker and Bleday are the Pirates FO's two favorite things. Controllable and cheap. I was never really a fan of him, but, would the Marlins want to trade Jacob Berry for a random complex player? I feel like all their players are tainted by that org and just need out.
You would have Bleday for 4 years, 2 months
Rooker 3 years, 2 months.
Miami is where good college hitters go to regress. I really think the A's just looked at what changed between Bleday in college and with the Marlins. He had hand movement before his load at Vandy (more timing and keeping loose) while in Miami his hands were still before the load, the hand movement is back and he is hitting. Sometimes it's the little things.
Am i wrong or arent both rooker and bleday on the A's?
They are, but I was speaking to how Bleday looked completely washed in the Miami system
Just added to my previous post but go back and look at highlights from Bleday in college to Miami to Oakland. He'll occasionally move his hands preload in Miami but it was definitely something they were trying to eliminate. Trying to fix something that wasn't broke.
He certainly looked like a bust in Mia. If the Buccos can acquire him, he'd immediately be their best player.
Low K's, high walks, isn't running a high babip. Seems to be the real deal.
Block asked BC yesterday "How does AJ Preller make all these trades"? BC's answer - paraphrasing - he's relentless, he's on the phone all day.
Pick up the phone and dial, Ben.
Ohhhh gotcha gotcha
Chandler, Johnson, Barco + DSL player would more than likely get it done.
I note that Axial Plaz did not make Fangraphs Top 40 Pirate Prospects which surprises me. I ah e been high on him and hopeful since he had 1000 OPS at 16. I have never seen him play so what do I know, but extreme early success often means something is in there. I am a Plaz believer. There are a number of international guys whom I am now hopeful can emerge. The Pirates need that to happen.
Scouts are afraid he's maxed out physically. The short, stocky build bugs them. I'm seeing a s***load more power from him this year than last, so I'd just like to see where he goes. He's STILL only 18.
I think I'd be ok if he's maxed out, not too many ballparks hold his 450ft blasts. He just needs to keep progressing on doing it more often lol.
I think the problem is they think he'll get bigger, but in a bad way. 18-year-olds built like him, don't age well.
I agree, I just like the fact he can launch a ball like that at 18. They might need a nutritionist to keep him from growing the wrong way.
Starting to wonder if McAdoo may replace Hayes at 3rd. I wanted McAdoo in the OF but Hayes is a problem for the Pirates especially if the Gold Glove defense is now gone.
NS9 this morning talked about going the way of rentals. I’m warming up to that option. You don’t have to give up much to get a few guys.
How much would take to get varsho, Pham or ward, and Bell? They would replace Taylor with Varsho, Suwinski with Ward or Pham and Tellez with Bell. I think that helps the offense immensely. Gives you power and healthy OPS’. I would love another bullpen arm but I think the Calvary is coming if bednar can get right after the injury.
Just quick clarification... Varsho is not a rental. I mention that only because that significantly changes the purchase price. Plus to be honest I am not sure why we would think Jays would be unloading him other than if they just blow things up.
Yeah he was one they mentioned but he isn’t a free agent until 2027. However, I was comparing him to guys like Roberts or Bleday who aren’t free agents until 2029. He’s also not as good.
Also, I think the blue jays might blow it up.
If the pirates are willing to eat Bell's salary he'd be cheap prospect wise. Varsho isn't a good hitter but has some pop and has excellent defense. Pham is probably the best hitter of the 3 but has been a head case from time to time.
I'd check with Miami on Bell, Nardi or Scott and one of their outfielders, preferably Jazz but Sanchez would still be a left handed platoon upgrade.
Short term Bell, Scott and Sanchez shouldn't be overwhelming in prospect capital if Nutting would cover their salaries. It would still take an overpay but wouldn't cost the top prospects.
I agree. If the Pirates eat Bell's salary, Miami would have to include a prospect (or a player) to Pittsburgh to get that part done. He is not having a great year, and he is owed a significant amount of money. In general, if the Pirates choose to take on a salary (they won't), they would be able to get a significant upgrade without including Johnson or Chandler (they will not trade either).
Pham also only has one setting on the dial and that's 11. He holds other players accountable around him. I think this lackadaisical roster of lowkey dudes could use that aside from maybe Skenes and Jones.
I'd be happy with Pham, I could see him blow up though within the club house if he's producing and the offense is still struggling. They would need other pieces besides just him to get the runs up to where they need to be.
I think Pham + Bleday + Gavin Sheets could be enough to score another run a game on average
Yep
On second thought, we should really try for Pham, Bleday, Rooker, Sheets.
So you're talking Holderman for Bleday or Chandler, Suwinski, Bae. Nothing much for Pham and Sheets. Pham could absolutely go nuclear with this namby pamby coaching staff though. Another run per game so far this season has our offense up there around the Brewers but I like our pitching better. Make it so!
Varsho isn’t a good for average hitter, but he has power and plays great defense. He’d be an instant upgrade over Taylor and Suwinski and they’d have him I think until 2027. I like the guys you mentioned except Sanchez.
I agree and I said that, "isn't a good hitter but has pop and excellent defense". He's not a rental though, under control for 2 more years past this one.
I'm not high on him (Sanchez) either but he would be a cheap platoon upgrade in right field with Joe.
He has 2.6 bWAR this year. I think he’d be a major upgrade over any one in the outfield not named Reynolds. He isn’t my ideal candidate but I wouldn’t hate it.
I agree but he won't be cheap and the pirates wouldn't be getting the clear upgrade they need from Suwinski's struggles.
Perfect situation would be Suwinski getting hot for the next month and ending up producing like last year.
Yeah I can’t disagree with that.
There’s no problem with having prospects graduate to the majors, after all that is the point of having good prospects. The problem is that the prospects don’t fit together to make up an actual major league team when they’re virtually all pitchers. Everyone says don’t draft due to need, but ignoring needs gets you gigantic holes in the roster.
Unless you’re willing to fill those holes with trades or free agents, which the Pirates either haven’t done or done a lousy job of, you wind up with an outfield of Olivares, Taylor and Suwinski along with the utility guy named Joe and a first base position that is unsettled at best. Those kinds of holes would sink any boat even if the rest of the lineup was top notch, which of course it is not. The Pirates top outfield prospects are White at #32 along with an 18 and a 19 year old who may or may not ever develop and even if they do it’s 5-6 years down the road.
Combine that with a manager who appears to have no idea how to motivate players to actually, you know, play and who himself seems to not be paying attention much of the time and you wind up with a losing team along with lame excuses that often don’t even address the questionable issue.
The bottom line (as it appears to me anyway) is that if BC and Nutting don’t follow through with adding some quality position players to this organization there is no way the Pirates are going to win this year, next year or any other year in the foreseeable future. When the first words out of the mouth of the GM after his boss proclaims the need for better players is “internal options,” how much hope can there really be because there are none.
Lonnie White Jr is getting consistent plate appearances in Hi A and it would be difficult for me to think he will not improve. A two sport athlete who chose to sign with the Pirates out of HS in 2021, he was very green! In 2021, 2022, and 2023 he amassed a total of just more than 300 PA in the FCL and A. He will soon reach that level of PA just at A+ this year. So, yes he is learning on the fly. Very good to see him 3rd on the team with 10 HR and 7 of those HR's were on the road, and not GBO "super" fly balls. He is also playing an excellent CF - best on the team. I'll take that defense and plan that the bat will follow - not in 2024, which is his age 21 season. The key for him is to stay healthy and keep getting more PA before heading to AA in 2025.
And, Charles McAdoo has been the steal of the 2023 Draft, and he has not shown any tendency to slow down at AA. His ability to play 3B as well as other IF positions sets him up to be a Utility IF with a strong bat!
Go to Fangraphs game log, and do May 30th to present for Lonnie White Jr.
You're welcome ;)
Last 10 games look pretty good too, except for the 0 for 9 to start. The 30th was his season low batting average .150?
"He’s shown the ability to go the other way, especially with breaking pitches, yet turn on a pitch with authority."
Don't worry about that because if he makes it to Pittsburgh then Haines and Shelton will cure Mc Adoo of that hitting ability. He will be standing there taking strikes he could drive the other way while waiting for that pitch in his 'hitting zone' 🤯
It would be hard for me to think that the influence of Haines would not apply to all levels of MiLB Affiliates - can't let them get to the burgh and then try to change habits. To be honest, I saw the year Gonzales put up at AAA and then doubled down by carrying that with him to the Pirates, and I thought somebody in that hitting group (headed up by Haines) must have helped him this year, because his confidence level was on the floor last year. I know he has hit a wall lately, but at least two EBH were stolen from him by super OF plays. Still making solid contact and the hits will come!
To an extent, it's not a bad strategy.
Milwaukee has the lowest swinging rate in the majors, and the highest called strike rates.
So they take more pitches than anyone in baseball, the difference is when they do swing, they make contact. They have one of the lowest swinging rate in baseball and a solid contact rate.
They take pitches, more often than the Pirates, they just make contact far more often.
Gotta find the balance in it. Just taking pitches isn't the ONLY issue, it's not making contact when those pitches do come that has been too. The Pirates have the fifth worst swinging strike rate in baseball.
Also, the two teams that swing the most in baseball? Colordao and Miami, two of the worst teams in baseball. So just 'swing more' doesn't guarantee more success.
You bring up the Brewers...the fact that they have become *more* selective since Haines left seems to make it pretty clear this was never an Andy Haines thing. These are qualities that Matt Arnold and the Brewers seek.
And as you note, they're actually good at it!
Triolo, Hayes, Suwinski, Tellez, and Taylor are currently the hitters underperforming their pre-season projections by more than 20 points of wOBA.
Every single one of them - every single one - is currently running *more* aggressive approaches as judged by rate of swinging at and taking called strikes.
Where do I imply anyone should just "swing more". The actual idea of baseball is to hit a pitched ball that is hittable in a zone deemed hittable, make contact and put the ball in play. If a rh hitter gets a hit on the right side or a lh hitter gets a hit on the left side it's still a hit. It's tough for your your team to hit two or three run homers if hardly anyone can get on base. If they want the hitters to run up the pitch count then protecting the plate is a better way to do it then standing at home plate like a statue.
Who said they want hitters to run up the pitch count? You get butthurt at Murph and then casually drop that last line like it's fact, lol.
You people craft this entire narrative like a fuckin soap opera and then get super offended the minute anyone even lightly pushes back and I find it absolutely hilarious.
Mostly agree on the situation Cherington's put himself in wrt improving the roster. He does have some pitching he could trade but will be reluctant to.
Jones
Holderman
Chandler
Harrington
Ashcraft
Hunter Stratton
Solometo
Barco
Idk the entirety of the health of all included, but GMBC's biggest asset is definitely going to be arms.
Beginning with the rotation, Perez already made a rehab start and is likely to return shortly. IIRC, they said Marco is close to beginning rehab. Now, they could go 6-man rotation to help limit JJ and Skenes, but you'll have: JJ, Skenes, Keller, Falter, Perez, and Marco.
Again unsure of complete health, I believe Borucki is close to rehabbing. I'll leave Stratton out, cause his injury looked potentially more problematic, and if we presume 6-man rotation that leaves 7 bullpen spots that in a couple weeks could have in the mix: Bednar, Chapman, Holderman, Oritz, Nicolas, Mlodzinski, and Borucki.
Then there's quick fill-in's Ryan or Bruihl. Fleming and Santana have no options. Ashcraft is a depth rotation option. Then in some capacity whether starter or bullpen, you could have Priester or Burrows, who is working his way back. Plop Stratton here if he begins rehabbing in short order.
Then looking towards 2025 you'll have Oviedo coming back at some point. There's Harrington, Bubba, Solo, Sullivan, Barco, Reilly, and possibly Ercolani and Dotel who could all be Double-A or higher by start of 2025. There's a Perachi, who might move to the pen. Woods is already up in Double-A, and Luis Peralta should be soon.
All that to say, they should be wide open to moving some arms. Starters or relief at both the MLB or minor league level. They should be more than willing to listen if there's a quality MLB player with term to be had for Termarr and Bubba.
I'd forgotten Stratton had the arm injury, thanks.
I think we'd all be pretty disappointed in the return for Termarr if he was traded at this deadline. Guys with a 20 present hit value just don't fetch much no matter how many Tony Gwynn/Vlad Jr comps they get draft year.
The Pirates would sell low on Johnson if they were to move him now. For Johnson to rebuild his value, he would need a whole year of high quality production. But, if he produces, why trade him? I haven't wholly given up on him, but it's reasonable to doubt the quality of his hit tool at this moment. He needs to take a step forward.
The hit tool side of things makes it tough, but he's kind of just building a resume of being a slow starter that falls off top 100 lists, then second half blasts his way back up. Since beginning of May he has a near identical 17.3% BB-rate and 19.9% K-rate. A shade under .800 OPS with a 130 wRC+. Add in he only turned 20 thirteen days ago. He was so high profile that his prospect hype is probably going to drastically swing with his trends.
I think they're doing him no favors by not promoting him at this point. He needs to see pitchers who'll come at him in the zone.
Since June 1st, he has a 13.4% BB-rate and 22.0% K-rate. An .875 OPS and 144 wRC+ to go with it. Part of me feels like, as we mentioned before with how Yordany's season began, he just came out swinging for promotion after a pretty electric spring.
Thank you, the doom and gloom is getting a little much.
Well I think it has to do with the fact that they're doing as well as they are on the pitching side in all things, while the polar opposite for hitting. And unfortunately the hitting has been so bad it's overshadowing the pitching, because coupled with less than ideal defense, it's basically dragging down the gains made with pitching.
I do you one better, the hitting prospects never developed, just two years ago the system was heavy on the hitting side, Cruz, Peguero, Gonzales, Mitchell, CSN, Castro, etc, I never thought they were all gonna make it, but was hoping for a lot more than that
Here's the 2022 top 10 from Fangraphs...
1. Cruz - 60
2. Davis - 55
3. Roansy - 50
4. Lio - 50
5. Quinn - 50
6. Gonzales - 50
7. Endy - 45+
8. Matt Frazier ?!? - 45+
9. Jared Jones - 45
10. Bubba - 45
Cruz Peguero and Gonzales are the only ones in that group that weren't extremely fringey to begin with and you got 2 out of 3.
This is good!
Cal has hit a bit of a slump, but I was curious if the Padres might call him up. Has been having a pretty solid year so far.