A Preseason Look At The Prospect Promotion Incentive

Who is eligible for the PPI after the ESPN, Basebal America, MLB Pipeline top 100 lists were released?

Photo Credit: WTM

On Wednesday, ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel released the latest preseason Top-100 prospect list, the last of the three major publications—to go along with Baseball America and MLB Pipeline.

While you may disagree with the merits of any of those three lists, I am not here to quibble with their evaluations of the top MLB prospects—or even those of the Pittsburgh Pirates—rather, my concerns are more procedural in nature.

It is these three sources that MLB and the MLBPA deemed the most important in their Prospect Promotion Incentive, the agreement the two sides forged during the most recent labor agreement as a way to incentivize teams to roster their best players earlier. While teams refused to admit that such a thing as “service time manipulation” was happening, they worked with the union to address what was one of their major concerns, and PPI was born.

2024 will be the third year of the program, and while we’ve seen the results of the first two seasons, this is more of a fluid, continuous incentive than it is static. Therefore, with the three lists that the league uses to determine the incentive now public, it’s time to examine what players are worth watching as the season opens.

When looking at who qualifies, the terminology is a little tricky here because if I say a player is “eligible” for PPI, it would be a bit of a misnomer, as I think that’s more appropriate for the players who actually end a season eligible for the incentive. Rather, while it isn’t elegant, it may be more appropriate to call the following what makes players “eligible for eligibility,” at least until I can think of something better.

The first major hurdle a player needs to clear is inclusion on two of the three lists. With 300 possible spots, there were 130 different players between them, with 98 ranking on at least two lists—meaning 32 were only placed on one.

There are a few more qualifications that need to be met for these players, however. Qualifying players need to be rookie eligible AND have less than 60 days of service. Each list uses slightly different criteria—for example, MLB Pipeline strictly looks at rookie eligible players, while Baseball America ranks players solely on the plate appearance and innings pitched portion of rookie eligibility, ignoring the day counts. This leads to certain players showing up on one list and not the other, such as Shane Baz and Max Meyer.

This year, Baseball America stopped ranking foreign professionals. Among their reasons was the league’s rule that says such players are ineligible for PPI, meaning a few more spots are open for players that make the list that could actually qualify for the incentive down the line.

Last season, three players needed to be excluded despite showing up on two lists, as they had more than 60 days of service (a player can still be rookie eligible with more than 45 days of service, just as long as they aren’t all active days, while they can’t be PPI eligible with more than 60 days). This time around, no players fell in that bucket, so all 98 meet those three preseason qualifiers.

Of note, there is one player—AJ Smith-Shawver—who has more than 45 days of service (the cutoff for rookie eligibility); however, that rule states they must be “active days.” Smith-Shawver was optioned after September 7th in 2023, meaning he accrued days of service that wouldn’t be considered “active,” thus retaining his rookie eligibility. It’s unclear if a scenario like this that pushed a player over 60 days would disqualify them from PPI eligibility.

One final qualification that was never originally publicized, but seems to be the case based on the test subject of MacKenzie Gore, also needs considered. Gore, who made his debut in 2022 with the San Diego Padres, was eventually traded to the Washington Nationals in the Juan Soto deal. Baseball America’s Matt Eddy reported that “[a]ny player traded subsequent to his promotion is ineligible for PPI draft picks”, meaning that a player’s trade history matters also.

Michael Busch, now of the Chicago Cubs, was traded this offseason after debuting in 2023, disqualifying him. Then, just last night, Joey Ortiz was traded by the Baltimore Orioles to the Milwaukee Brewers, taking him out of the running as well.

Taking those two players out, here is the list of 96 players that ultimately qualified:

AJ Smith-Shawver/Braves/MLB

Masyn Winn/Cardinals/MLB

Nolan Schanuel/Angels/MLB

Noelvi Marte/Reds/MLB

Colton Cowser/Orioles/MLB

Kyle Harrison/Giants/MLB

Curtis Mead/Rays/MLB

Ceddanne Rafaela/Red Sox/MLB

Brayan Rocchio/Guardians/MLB

Jasson Domínguez/Yankees/MLB

Austin Wells/Yankees/MLB

Ronny Mauricio/Mets/MLB

Connor Phillips/Reds/MLB

Jordan Lawlar/Diamondbacks/MLB

Evan Carter/Rangers/MLB

Pete Crow-Armstrong/Cubs/MLB

Heston Kjerstad/Orioles/MLB

Marco Luciano/Giants/MLB

Junior Caminero/Rays/MLB

Jackson Holliday/Orioles/AAA

Jackson Chourio/Brewers/AAA

Wyatt Langford/Rangers/AAA

Brooks Lee/Twins/AAA

Colt Keith/Tigers/AAA

Ricky Tiedemann/Blue Jays/AAA

Coby Mayo/Orioles/AAA

Tyler Black/Brewers/AAA

Mick Abel/Phillies/AAA

Jared Jones/Pirates/AAA

Nick Frasso/Dodgers/AAA

Orelvis Martinez/Blue Jays/AAA

Hurston Waldrep/Braves/AAA

Kyle Manzardo/Guardians/AAA

Andy Pages/Dodgers/AAA

Paul Skenes/Pirates/AA

Dylan Crews/Nationals/AA

Ethan Salas/Padres/AA

Colson Montgomery/White Sox/AA

Jackson Merrill/Padres/AA

James Wood/Nationals/AA

Marcelo Mayer/Red Sox/AA

Samuel Basallo/Orioles/AA

Carson Williams/Rays/AA

Roman Anthony/Red Sox/AA

Cade Horton/Cubs/AA

Andrew Painter/Phillies/AA

Adael Amador/Rockies/AA

Chase DeLauter/Guardians/AA

Jacob Misiorowski/Brewers/AA

Jeferson Quero/Brewers/AA

Robby Snelling/Padres/AA

Kyle Teel/Red Sox/AA

Jett Williams/Mets/AA

Owen Caissie/Cubs/AA

Brady House/Nationals/AA

Drew Gilbert/Mets/AA

Matt Shaw/Cubs/AA

Jace Jung/Tigers/AA

Tink Hence/Cardinals/AA

Yanquiel Fernandez/Rockies/AA

Spencer Jones/Yankees/AA

Drew Thorpe/Padres/AA

Chase Hampton/Yankees/AA

Bubba Chandler/Pirates/AA

Tekoah Roby/Cardinals/AA

Luisangel Acuña/Mets/AA

Edwin Arroyo/Reds/AA

Carson Whisenhunt/Giants/AA

Chase Petty/Reds/AA

Daniel Espino/Guardians/AA

Jacob Melton/Astros/AA

Jackson Jobe/Tigers/A+

Rhett Lowder/Reds/A+

Cole Young/Mariners/A+

Harry Ford/Mariners/A+

Emmanuel Rodriguez/Twins/A+

Termarr Johnson/Pirates/A+

Dylan Lesko/Padres/A+

Jacob Wilson/Athletics/A+

Sebastian Walcott/Rangers/A+

Dalton Rushing/Dodgers/A+

Justin Crawford/Phillies/A+

Tommy Troy/Diamondbacks/A+

Ryan Clifford/Mets/A+

Luis Morales/Athletics/A+

Walker Jenkins/Twins/A

Max Clark/Tigers/A

Noah Schultz/White Sox/A

Noble Meyer/Marlins/A

Xavier Isaac/Rays/A

Colt Emerson/Mariners/A

Bryce Eldridge/Giants/A

Druw Jones/Diamondbacks/A

Chase Dollander/Rockies/ROK

Roderick Arias/Yankees/ROK

Leodalis De Vries/Padres/N/A

Using Pipeline’s listing by level (there seemed to be some discrepancies with players they listed as “MLB” never actually making the majors but merely being selected to the roster this offseason, so hopefully there were no other issues that I didn’t catch), here is a breakdown of the highest level reached by each player:

MLB: 19

Triple-A: 15

Double-A: 37

High-A: 14

A: 8

Rookie: 2

None: 1

Conventional thinking would lead one to believe that the MLB/Triple-A group is the one to watch for players to start the season on Opening Day rosters. History mostly bears this out, as only three—Julio Rodríguez, C.J. Abrams, and Jordan Walker—of the twenty-six PPI-eligible players to open the season on a roster the last two years had yet to reach Triple-A. However, it isn’t totally a waste of time to look lower when it comes to the incentive.

For a player to ultimately end up eligible for a PPI pick after a respective season, they need to accrue a full year of service—this can still happen even if a player doesn’t open the season on the roster, just as long as they get called up early enough—however, there is somewhat of an inverse to the rule at play.

If a player doesn’t accrue a full year of service but still ends up placing Top-2 in Rookie of the Year voting in the same season, they retroactively accrue a full year of service anyway, despite not being rostered for one.

There have been three occurrences of this thus far: Adley Rutschman and Michael Harris II after 2022 and Tanner Bibee after 2023. It’s notable that Harris II had only reached High-A before 2022 and Bibee Double-A before 2023. This means that while it’s not as likely for a player in the lower levels to start the season on the roster, it’s possible they may end it there.

As for players to watch who could actually end up netting their team’s picks—at least with a Rookie of the Year award in 2024—it makes the most sense to focus on players who spent a fair amount of time in 2023 in the majors. Players like Evan Carter, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Noelvi Marte, Kyle Harrison, and Noah Schanuel are the most likely, while Jasson Domínguez could earn a whole year of service, depending on his injury status. Also, recently extended Jackson Chourio and Colt Keith are probably more likely to start in the majors now, giving them an upper hand on accruing a full year.

Carter may go down the same path as Gunnar Henderson and Corbin Carroll, with a Rookie of the Year win after a previous season debut, ultimately awarding the Rangers an extra draft pick after the first round. The National League may not be as cut and dry, however.

Being only two years into the incentive and seeing the many layers to determining who is and isn’t eligible, there still can be some misconceptions about who can and can’t earn their team a pick.

To reiterate, just any old rookie does not qualify for this incentive—they must be considered a “top prospect,” which is obviously determined by placement on a Top-100 list. Also, one of the 32 players to appear on only one list does not count. It is only necessary to track the names that fell on two lists and met all the other qualifications, at least for 2024.

With the entire league out of the way, what does this all mean for the Pirates specifically in 2024?

In total, the team had four prospects make at least two different lists: Jared Jones, Paul Skenes, Bubba Chandler, and Termarr Johnson. Anthony Solometo and Thomas Harrington each ended up on only one list.

It’s likely that Jones ends up playing a role on the team at some point this season, while if fans had their druthers, Skenes would end up doing so as well. While it’s unlikely Jones ends up factoring into the Rookie of the Year race, many are predicting Skenes could, if given enough time on the roster. Many are also speculating that the Pirates may hold him down long enough to secure an extra year of contractual control before bringing him to the majors.

Remember though, as touched on before, Skenes could end up achieving a full year of service anyway if he ends up in the Rookie of the Year conversation. If this happens, the team would be out the possible first-round pick while also losing the extra year of control—if that was their intention in the first place, of course. Many pundits having this discussion seem to be missing that part of it, so it’s at least worth mentioning and having in the back of your head once the 2024 season rolls around.

If players like Chandler, Johnson, and Solometo end up keeping their rookie eligibility, we may be having this conversation at this time next year revolving around them, but for now, it’s best to focus on Jones and Skenes.

Finally, to reiterate, while a Nick Gonzales or Quinn Priester breakout would certainly be welcome, their success is in no way tied to future PPI considerations.