Bucs on Deck 2025 Draft Preview

Complete look at the 2025 MLB Draft

Photo Credit: MLB.com

It’s draft day, with the first three rounds beginning at 6 pm ET on the MLB Network and ESPN. They will wrap up with rounds 4-20 on Monday, with things kicking off at 11:30 am ET.

The Pittsburgh Pirates will pick sixth overall in the first round and have a total of four selections on day one, adding in a Competitive Balance B pick.

They went prep-heavy early on last year, with four of their first five picks coming from the high school ranks, including the ninth overall pick, Konnor Griffin. They will also have the eighth-largest bonus pool available to them, $14,088,400.

Their first pick will carry a slot value of $7,558,600, and they will have no shortage of options to select there.

I discussed some of the realistic options that they will be able to select with the sixth overall pick here:

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Taking into account two players that have the least odds of making it to the sixth pick, here is my top eight:

1. Seth Hernandez, RHP

2. Eli Willits, SS

3. JoJo Parker, SS

4. Jamie Arnold, LHP

5. Aiva Arquette, SS

6. Billy Carlson, SS

7. Kyson Witherspoon, RHP

8. Ike Irish, C/OF

I go into much more depth in the article above, with more information on each player and how I came to place them where I did.

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Digging much further down, I also looked at almost 20 pitchers that should land somewhere outside the first round, both prep and college arms.

The Pirates have done a great job finding and developing pitchers, especially at the high school level, so I spent the majority of my time talking about them (although there are more college arms, the write-ups on prep pitchers are longer).

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We know hitting has been an issue for the Pirates, so I also discuss some to watch for that should also land outside the first round.

What the mock drafts are saying

Being the day of, every site has finally rolled out their final mock draft before things get started. Here’s a look at what some of the major sites are predicting the Pirates to take sixth overall.

ESPN: Aiva Arquette

CBS Sports: Jamie Arnold

Bleacher Report: Seth Hernandez

MLB Pipeline: Aiva Arquette/Billy Carlson

For The Win: Aiva Arquette

Just Baseball: Jamie Arnold

The Athletic: Liam Doyle

Baseball America: Aiva Arquette

Future Star Series: Aiva Arquette

With Baseball America shifting to Arquette, it’s pretty overwhelming on who the favorite is for the Pirates to land at sixth overall.

Staff Predictions

We also decided to do a quick poll with some of the writers on the site to see who they think the Pirates will select.

NolaJeffy - Aiva Arquette

Pirates pick sixth Sunday evening, and I can say I’m not too confident about how it will go. I believe it’s a high probability they go with a pick from the prep ranks, judging by Justin Horowitz’s first draft in 2024, as well as how the Boston Red Sox’s drafts generally fell during his time under Chaim Bloom. With that in mind and given the Pirates’ current strengths, I think Seth Hernandez would be the optimal selection. Hernandez is a phenomenal talent, and the Pirates’ pitching development is proving to be one of the best in the league, but I don’t think he makes it to sixth. There is a lot of smoke with prep shortstops in the draft, such as Eli Willits or Billy Carlson, and given the aforementioned note about Horowitz, I think it’s a 55/45 probability they go that route.

Where I think it could get dicey, is something Murphy and I were discussing a bit earlier in the week; “Will Ben push for the college bat because his seat is getting warmer?” Aiva Arquette has had a lot of smoke himself, in mock drafts. He’s considered the best college bat, at the premium shortstop position. There are thoughts he will likely move off the spot and to third base, which, that itself is a position that will likely require filling in the near future. Ike Irish, Marek Houston, or Jace LaViolette could make some sense if they wanted to try and float a higher-end prep player down to their second pick at 50.

You don’t pick for need, and as much as I’d love to see a Kade Anderson or Jamie Arnold, they have so many upper-level arms. Even if they trade some at the deadline or off-season, they have so many arms, controllable arms. If he makes it to sixth, I believe they’ll select Aiva Arquette. Final answer.

Murphy - Aiva Arquette

Since I have already shared my list of who I would take, this is more about what I believe the Pirates will do. As Nola mentioned above, we had a brief conversation about Cherington going college-heavy up front as a way to push kids quickly in an effort to keep his job.

If that’s the case, it’ll be a college bat, and it feels like Arquette is the guy they are going to target. If he’s gone, I could see them going with Seth Hernandez.

But as long as he’s available, which I believe he will be, Arquette will be the pick.

WTM - Aiva Arquette

The early rounds of this draft are wide open, so predicting what the Pirates will do — to say nothing of the five teams in front of them — is difficult. I know what I'd prefer to see them do. I'd prefer them to go for upside, which at this point looks like Seth Hernandez or Eli Willits. I'm skeptical, though, that either of them will make it to the Pirates. I'm also assuming Ethan Holliday won't. Probably at least one of the college lefties will make it — Kade Anderson seems like the least likely — along with at least one of the remaining prep shortstops. Of those, I'd prefer Jojo Parker or Liam Doyle.

My best guess, though, is that the Pirates will go with Aiva Arquette. I'm sure they'd claim they went for the best player available, but it's not like there's a clear definition of "best." In a field this wide open, it's hard to say definitively that a guy being (theoretically) closer to the majors isn't relevant to "best." And the Pirates' hitting situation, not just in the majors but in AAA, too, is about as dismal as it's possible to get. This front office also hasn't shown any inclination to take pitchers at the top of their drafts, unless of course they were generational talents. So I'm guessing Arquette.

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