Yelich had an excellent interview with MLB Network and was asked about the difference between Counsel and Pat Murphy. He went on to talk about Murphy brings an intensity different than as a bench coach. "He brings accountability, you have to play a certain way if you want to play for him, the only thing he cares about is winning.
He's going to put the players on the field he thinks are best to do the job". Compare this with the other thread where some say Shelton's job as manager is inconsequential. You decide.
I don't need to decide. This is easily simulated with a good baseball simulation program like Diamond Mind, and I have run 100s of simulated seasons. Change manger settings for bullpen use, pinch-hitting, defensive subbing and run out 20 seasons. Change the settings, and do it again. You don't have to do anything crazy, just some common things that some managers do, and you see some significant swings in average win/loss. Seemed to me like it was +/- 6 wins per season, which means a 12 game swing from the least optimal to the most optimal manager settings (within reason- we are not talking about using garbage-time relievers as starters or playing guys far out of position). And that is just game-management decisions. That does not include intangibles, accountability, basic coaching on positional play, baserunning, etc... . It makes a difference.
Love this. With all the analytics in baseball today, I thought there would be a reasonable way of measuring a manager's performance. You've just shed some light on it, TY.
Two things. Diamond Mind is hindsight, so you are using end-of-season performance: something real baseball managers don't know mid-season. No one knew that Bednar was going to fall apart, for example. So actual swings in real-life are probably a little less than +/- 6, assuming that all managers stick to the prescribed formulas of current baseball logic. However, just think back to keeping Bednar in the closer role long after it would have been wise to change. Using Ryan Rider as a fireman in the early season. Using Tellez as a defensive sub early in the season. These type of mistakes add up over the course of a season.
Second, it is impossible to optimize bullpen use with the computer manager in Diamond Mind because the internal logic demands that you base roles on the traditional long relief/middle relief/setup/closer. If you play in competitive leagues online, no one actually uses these traditional roles, except newbies managing their first team. All the veteran managers use their best arms as fireman, and they use them with specific intent: such as guys with very high k/9 when there is a runner on 3rd or very high groundball rates with a runner on 1st. This type of bullpen use makes the +/- 6 games a conservative estimate.
The Manager is the most important man on the Roster. Murph has been around the game long enough to realize the leadership qualifications necessary to succeed - Kudo's to the Brewer Senior Management Group for recognizing that. I have been begging for at least 2 or 3 years for the Pirates to give Bench Coach Don Kelly the opportunity. Nice to hear a ballplayer (Yellich) note the differences between Murph the Bench Coach and Murph the Manager.
That's true, he obviously chose the best possible time probably expecting them to struggle against KC and on the road trip.
But is the seemingly unmotivated play attributable to getting the word that all's good regardless of wins and losses? Probably coincidence, but if they were 5-1 instead of 1-5, I'm sure we'd be hearing about how the players responded to the news that their manager would be back.
The only trade I think they may regret is the Beeks trade. He's done nothing, is gone next year, and there is a slight chance that Peralta (who is already pitching in MLB) turns into something good.
Yea the fact that the Pirates traded him is mind blowing. Worst case for all the reasons you mentioned. He's only allowed one inherited runner to score out of 12 he's had. How many did Beeks just give up that inning?
Sorry if this has been posted but I just read that they’ve been working Reynolds out at 1B. Shelton said they wouldn’t move him until next season, though.
They should probably just give a few guys an early vacation. Tellez, Taylor and Grandal dfa. Reynolds at first, Cook in the outfield somewhere with Yorke in left or 2nd, and Rodriguez at catcher or first.
No. I don't think York has the arm for 3rd either. I don't like Gonzalez on the left side of the IF either, but I would not just hand Gonzalez the starting job at 2B. Yorke may be better.
Moving Reynolds to first only makes sense if they are going to dump all the OF scrubs like de La Cruz and Olivares and sign 2 serious OFers in the offseason. I would not count on Cook to be anything more than a 4th OFer. There is no reason to have Reynolds at 1B if you have a continuous, rolling disaster in RF, as has been the case through GMBC's tenure.
I think it’s quite the opposite, it would give us a chance to have a better offense. Moving two below average to average defenders off their regular positions doesn’t seem to be a recipe for a better defense.
But Reynolds rates as below average in LF despite some highlight-reel plays, and I haven't been impressed with the Tellez/Joe platoon at 1B--when Tellez is your defensive replacement, that seems problematic. Triolo would likely be the best defensive option at 1B but even though he's been hitting well lately, I don't think he'll hit like we want/need our first baseman to hit.
Of course the key will be to find a quality left fielder to replace Reynolds and I'm not sure that player is on the current roster or that Cherington has the ability to bring that person in from the outside.
I kind of get what you’re saying with some of the hypotheticals. I was looking at it as Yorke replaces Reynolds in LF and Reynolds replaces Tellez at 1B. To me, there doesn’t seem to be much upside base on a one for one replacement. In each case, a below average defender is being replaced by an inexperienced defender.
I don’t understand the bullpen usage. Why did we bring Holderman in earlier than Bednar? Why did we put Bednar in a one run game late? Shelton just doesn’t get it…
Tsung-Che Cheng having a solid game in AAA tonight. Some solid at-bats. Better than the 1-3 it shows in the box score. Reached on an error, later scored.
I'm glad that they let him continue playing. It was a rough season for someone who hasn't had hitting trouble in the past. I wonder if Altoona fired a respected hitting coach and hired someone else...
The someone else is Brady Conlan, who is 31 years old, has about 3 years coaching experience, and never played above A-ball. I'm not real sure what qualifies him to be the hitting coach of a AA team, but there you have it. Compare that resume to the guy whom they fired.
Yeah I was hoping they'd let him continue. He's in a weird position because he's on the 40 man, and is a legitimate shortstop. There's a path for some actual playing time if he strings some solid at-bats together.
Yelich had an excellent interview with MLB Network and was asked about the difference between Counsel and Pat Murphy. He went on to talk about Murphy brings an intensity different than as a bench coach. "He brings accountability, you have to play a certain way if you want to play for him, the only thing he cares about is winning.
He's going to put the players on the field he thinks are best to do the job". Compare this with the other thread where some say Shelton's job as manager is inconsequential. You decide.
Thanks for the post. The Manager is the most important man on the roster on and off the field. Like the point of view of Yellich - he get's it.
I don't need to decide. This is easily simulated with a good baseball simulation program like Diamond Mind, and I have run 100s of simulated seasons. Change manger settings for bullpen use, pinch-hitting, defensive subbing and run out 20 seasons. Change the settings, and do it again. You don't have to do anything crazy, just some common things that some managers do, and you see some significant swings in average win/loss. Seemed to me like it was +/- 6 wins per season, which means a 12 game swing from the least optimal to the most optimal manager settings (within reason- we are not talking about using garbage-time relievers as starters or playing guys far out of position). And that is just game-management decisions. That does not include intangibles, accountability, basic coaching on positional play, baserunning, etc... . It makes a difference.
Love this. With all the analytics in baseball today, I thought there would be a reasonable way of measuring a manager's performance. You've just shed some light on it, TY.
Two things. Diamond Mind is hindsight, so you are using end-of-season performance: something real baseball managers don't know mid-season. No one knew that Bednar was going to fall apart, for example. So actual swings in real-life are probably a little less than +/- 6, assuming that all managers stick to the prescribed formulas of current baseball logic. However, just think back to keeping Bednar in the closer role long after it would have been wise to change. Using Ryan Rider as a fireman in the early season. Using Tellez as a defensive sub early in the season. These type of mistakes add up over the course of a season.
Second, it is impossible to optimize bullpen use with the computer manager in Diamond Mind because the internal logic demands that you base roles on the traditional long relief/middle relief/setup/closer. If you play in competitive leagues online, no one actually uses these traditional roles, except newbies managing their first team. All the veteran managers use their best arms as fireman, and they use them with specific intent: such as guys with very high k/9 when there is a runner on 3rd or very high groundball rates with a runner on 1st. This type of bullpen use makes the +/- 6 games a conservative estimate.
The Manager is the most important man on the Roster. Murph has been around the game long enough to realize the leadership qualifications necessary to succeed - Kudo's to the Brewer Senior Management Group for recognizing that. I have been begging for at least 2 or 3 years for the Pirates to give Bench Coach Don Kelly the opportunity. Nice to hear a ballplayer (Yellich) note the differences between Murph the Bench Coach and Murph the Manager.
Surely just a coincidence, but the Pirates are 1-5 since last Wednesday, the day Cherington said that he expected Shelton to be back.
Not a coincidence. Cherington was careful to make his comment during a series against a team they figured to beat. They're not playing Miami any more.
That's true, he obviously chose the best possible time probably expecting them to struggle against KC and on the road trip.
But is the seemingly unmotivated play attributable to getting the word that all's good regardless of wins and losses? Probably coincidence, but if they were 5-1 instead of 1-5, I'm sure we'd be hearing about how the players responded to the news that their manager would be back.
Maybe 1-5 IS them responding to the news that the mgr will be back.
Mcgreevy strikes out our '25 nucleus 1-3 hitters, two looking. You would think his name was Clase.
Haines nods in quiet approval as Reynolds and Bart watch center-cut meatballs float right by them for strike 3.
The team's Roberto Clements Award nominee to Bednar must be very bittersweet for him, with his Aug/Sept collapse and not being able to find it again.
Brownie and Walk, you really need to focus on the Pirates play rather than calling out other team's players (Siani).
That would require a bit of professionalism.
Good night. This is all just so laughable. No one in management cares.
Nope, they're only waiting for the revenue-sharing check from MLB.
The only trade I think they may regret is the Beeks trade. He's done nothing, is gone next year, and there is a slight chance that Peralta (who is already pitching in MLB) turns into something good.
It's looking like Peralta has a role in a mlb bullpen. A cheap controllable middle reliever with options at worst, potentially more.
Yea the fact that the Pirates traded him is mind blowing. Worst case for all the reasons you mentioned. He's only allowed one inherited runner to score out of 12 he's had. How many did Beeks just give up that inning?
I’m sure Beeks has more appearances, but you can’t ask for a better 1 to 1 comparison since Peralta was immediately called up.
Sorry if this has been posted but I just read that they’ve been working Reynolds out at 1B. Shelton said they wouldn’t move him until next season, though.
It makes sense. Wouldn't mind the move. Maybe put Yorke in LF then and just tell him to focus on that all offseason
They should probably just give a few guys an early vacation. Tellez, Taylor and Grandal dfa. Reynolds at first, Cook in the outfield somewhere with Yorke in left or 2nd, and Rodriguez at catcher or first.
Yorke looks really good on the IF. I think they may have something with this guy. I've been very impressed with him thus far.
I don't think he has the arm for third, but I'd need to see him there more to be sure. I'd want to see Gonzales at third some as well.
No. I don't think York has the arm for 3rd either. I don't like Gonzalez on the left side of the IF either, but I would not just hand Gonzalez the starting job at 2B. Yorke may be better.
I don't think they'll pull the trigger that early on Reynolds to first. Will be something they probably do in the off-season.
But the rest, yea, I'm all for
Moving Reynolds to first only makes sense if they are going to dump all the OF scrubs like de La Cruz and Olivares and sign 2 serious OFers in the offseason. I would not count on Cook to be anything more than a 4th OFer. There is no reason to have Reynolds at 1B if you have a continuous, rolling disaster in RF, as has been the case through GMBC's tenure.
Yes, it makes a lot of sense and gives us a better chance to have a strong defense.
I think it’s quite the opposite, it would give us a chance to have a better offense. Moving two below average to average defenders off their regular positions doesn’t seem to be a recipe for a better defense.
But Reynolds rates as below average in LF despite some highlight-reel plays, and I haven't been impressed with the Tellez/Joe platoon at 1B--when Tellez is your defensive replacement, that seems problematic. Triolo would likely be the best defensive option at 1B but even though he's been hitting well lately, I don't think he'll hit like we want/need our first baseman to hit.
Of course the key will be to find a quality left fielder to replace Reynolds and I'm not sure that player is on the current roster or that Cherington has the ability to bring that person in from the outside.
I kind of get what you’re saying with some of the hypotheticals. I was looking at it as Yorke replaces Reynolds in LF and Reynolds replaces Tellez at 1B. To me, there doesn’t seem to be much upside base on a one for one replacement. In each case, a below average defender is being replaced by an inexperienced defender.
I don’t understand the bullpen usage. Why did we bring Holderman in earlier than Bednar? Why did we put Bednar in a one run game late? Shelton just doesn’t get it…
Shelton just doesn't care.
Bednar is so cooked man.
Just shut him down and try again next year.
It’s all command- that is a hangin curveball at the numbers. Good hitters destroy that pitch all day long
Yep. It's crazy that it just never came back all season.
First lead in the series. It's up to the bullpen now. That doesn't exactly fill me with hope, but stranger things have happened.
Well that didn't take long.
3 pitches..
Tsung-Che Cheng having a solid game in AAA tonight. Some solid at-bats. Better than the 1-3 it shows in the box score. Reached on an error, later scored.
Made a couple of plays defensively too.
I'm glad that they let him continue playing. It was a rough season for someone who hasn't had hitting trouble in the past. I wonder if Altoona fired a respected hitting coach and hired someone else...
The someone else is Brady Conlan, who is 31 years old, has about 3 years coaching experience, and never played above A-ball. I'm not real sure what qualifies him to be the hitting coach of a AA team, but there you have it. Compare that resume to the guy whom they fired.
Yeah I was hoping they'd let him continue. He's in a weird position because he's on the 40 man, and is a legitimate shortstop. There's a path for some actual playing time if he strings some solid at-bats together.
Would be interesting to see him with the Pirates during the last week, but I think he will go the AFL route. Prime candidate for it
I had him on my list when Nola and I talked about it on the podcast. Not sure if I got around to actually bring him up when we were recording
A bit late but……BOOOMMMA!! Goes Cook!!!!
Let the rookies play!
If Cook and Yorke aren't both in the lineup tomorrow....
I don’t know. This Michael Taylor kid needs some reps.
Haines, go back to your spot in the dugout and stay there!
Billy Cook and Nick Yorke showing out tonight.
Nice play by Yorke.......but Triolo was stretching with the wrong leg.......baby steps with Shelton's versatility movement.