Rule of thumb I was brought up with: 4 runs is average. If you score more than 4 runs and lose, that’s on your pitchers. If you score less than 4 runs and lose, that’s on your hitters. If you score exactly 4 runs and lose, that’s baseball.
How many games have we scored 4+ runs this year? Without checking out B-ref I’m guessing not many.
I said virtually the same thing to father in law today at party. He was complaining about the error at first by Perez and I said today isn’t the day to complain about something your pitcher did . Score 3/4 runs in first 9 innings and no one cares about that play .
If you’re looking for another reason to be depressed, Keith Law had a brief note on Termarr Johnson. He was surprisingly positive on the speed and the defense, but said he was missing middle-middle 91-93 mph fastballs. What happened to the hit tool?
Tonight, TJ was 2-3 with 2 BB and a K. His average and OPPs continue to climb.
When evaluating the work of prospect analysts, you are looking at the product of groupthink and the work of a group that knows that it's difficult for prospects to make the Majors. It always pays better to underestimate a prospect than to overestimate a prospect. Longenhagen's recent Pirates evaluations lowballed Skenes, Jones, Chandler, Ashcraft and Harrington. Skenes was the most glaring miss I've ever seen: a five pitch repertoire all of which are plus pitches save for three that are double plus, a fastball that holds its velocity through 100 pitches, plus to double plus command and control. He's akin to a young DeGrom. He'll win the ROY and, if the Pirates could hit, would have a chance at a Cy Young Award. Longenhagen's analysis was written after Skenes made it to the Majors and began to flatten Major League hitters. Only an arm or shoulder injury can derail what should be an outstanding career.
When the shutdown started, Gonzales, a sub-six foot second baseman at New Mexico State, was leading the NCAA in home runs, thanks in no small part to five home runs in one day against the Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons, who went 7-45 last spring. Gonzales hits “small,” with a big leg kick but minuscule stride and very little weight transfer, showing plus bat speed with a grooved swing that has produced contact and power. His production in school has been aided by home games at 3,900 feet above sea level — although he also mashed on the Cape last summer, hitting for average and power there, too. He played primarily at shortstop this spring before the season ended, but his arm and range are short for the left side of the infield and he’s going to end up at second. His home run output doesn’t project to carry over into pro ball but he does project to hit for average with some doubles power with solid defense at second, enough to make him a safe pick in the first round for a team that wants a likely regular.
My reaction is don’t shoot the messenger. Law was very high on Johnson when he was drafted. But can anyone deny that he’s taken a major step backward, especially this year? He draws a lot of walks. That’s the best you can say for his offensive game at this point.
I saw him do some things in spring training to convince me he can be a special talent. I thought he would be doing better the first few months, but I am not too worried. I think it will just take longer.
Maybe statcast was a mistake? Listening to McKenry talk about how we had 3 balls hit over 105 mph today as if it was a different sort of victory was almost too much.
Where I'm going to disagree is with the notion that they need a long-term solution to contend this year. They're playing guys who are so horrendously awful that you'd just need a bunch of AAA rosters and some darts to get upgrades. There are 368 players in MLB with 100+ PAs. Of those, Grandal ranks 364th in wRC+, MAT is 359th, Triolo is 330th and Jack is 328th. MAT is barely above replacement due to his glove, the other three are well below. You'd have to work hard to find four AAAA types who'd be worse, and even then the odds would be heavily against you managing it.
I've never seen a team with a more obvious and more easily fixable problem, and so little willingness to make the slightest effort to fix it. They don't have to get Aaron Judge for a significant upgrade. They just need a few very mediocre players.
Those issues all should have been addressed in the off-season. The last thing I want to do right now is trade away good prospects or major league talent i a weak attempt to make up for the off-season mistakes.
If Bob doesn't spend a little more and if Ben doesn't find good talent this next off-season, then we are in big big trouble.
I know I know, Can't trade away prospects. Gotta have a couple prospects in the top 100 rankings. Gotta be one of the top 5 farm systems in Baseball America's rankings so we can dream of a future that never comes. Good free agents don't want to come here due to lack of comittment to winning and Nutting not opening his wallet so yes trade prospects.
If we had this attitude last off-season, there would could have easily traded away Jared Jones, Nick Gonzales, not to mention Paul Skenes. Pretty much most of our roster were prospects at one time. I'm not saying don't trade some. I'm saying being out of contention and trading away prospects at the deadline is the exact worse time to trade them. Remember Glasnow, Meadows and Baz for Archer...... who we released and got signed back by the Rays.
The window is now. They have the pitching prospects to compete. Problem: they won't get proven hitting by trading prospects. They will likely get prospects not ready for MLB or short term options. Meanwhile 2025, the Skenes, Jones window will be in year two....
I hear you or really do, I was with you 100% this off-season. There were a hundred good players that could have helped ups this off-season, not to mention teams were wanting to give away talent because they were needing to cut salary. Instead we sat on our hands. That is when you get most for your dollar. Right now there is big competiton for star players, so we would have to pay double or triple because we are competing with Mets, Cardinals, Red Sox, Guardians, Padres and several other teams with money that are trying to rent players. Many of these players they will give away this off-season.....if we are ready to spend.
I agree. The pitching is good enough, that short term upgrades would improve this team enough to compete for a playoff spot. Still they need more to win a championship or at least be a contender to win a championship. That's why i said longer term solution. They need more offense beyond this year for the Skenes, Jones, Chandler.....window.
I'm going to predict, right here and now, that this offseason Cherington will bring in the same sort of bottom-feeding, washed-up dreck he's brought in his first five years. He does. not. care.
Getting crappy players you can blame on Ben. Not spending money is a Bob thing. Bob spent money for one run with guys like Burnett, Liriano, Martin, Nova, Cerveli etc. He waited until he thought we could compete. Otherwise Nutting is not spending a dime.
It bears repeating. GMBC had the whole off-season, a more marketable stable of prospects to trade, and $30 million to improve the roster. He was unable to bring in even 1, single, solitary position player who can clear the lowest possible bar of replacement level. Why would anyone want this guy to start trading prospects for bats mid-season for a team that is below .500 with a negative run differential? The best move is to start the search for a new GM. Don't let Cherington do anything other than tinker around with the waiver wire and the 26-man. Then get your new GM in during the season, so he can become familiar with the organization and be prepared to make the necessary moves this off-season.
I agree, a few weeks ago it would have been worth the risk. Now they should look for bounce back, change of scenery or blocked prospects types that could potentially help some this year or in the future that doesn't cost too much.
Roansy did move his ERA from 3.82 to 4.04 today by giving up 2 ER and one unearned and facing 14 batters over 2.2 innings to be handed the loss but that's still a good bit better than Santana's 7.16 ERA!
Rule of thumb I was brought up with: 4 runs is average. If you score more than 4 runs and lose, that’s on your pitchers. If you score less than 4 runs and lose, that’s on your hitters. If you score exactly 4 runs and lose, that’s baseball.
How many games have we scored 4+ runs this year? Without checking out B-ref I’m guessing not many.
I said virtually the same thing to father in law today at party. He was complaining about the error at first by Perez and I said today isn’t the day to complain about something your pitcher did . Score 3/4 runs in first 9 innings and no one cares about that play .
If you’re looking for another reason to be depressed, Keith Law had a brief note on Termarr Johnson. He was surprisingly positive on the speed and the defense, but said he was missing middle-middle 91-93 mph fastballs. What happened to the hit tool?
After his home run tonight he is up to a 770 OPS as a 20 year old. He is still a key piece going forward.
Tonight, TJ was 2-3 with 2 BB and a K. His average and OPPs continue to climb.
When evaluating the work of prospect analysts, you are looking at the product of groupthink and the work of a group that knows that it's difficult for prospects to make the Majors. It always pays better to underestimate a prospect than to overestimate a prospect. Longenhagen's recent Pirates evaluations lowballed Skenes, Jones, Chandler, Ashcraft and Harrington. Skenes was the most glaring miss I've ever seen: a five pitch repertoire all of which are plus pitches save for three that are double plus, a fastball that holds its velocity through 100 pitches, plus to double plus command and control. He's akin to a young DeGrom. He'll win the ROY and, if the Pirates could hit, would have a chance at a Cy Young Award. Longenhagen's analysis was written after Skenes made it to the Majors and began to flatten Major League hitters. Only an arm or shoulder injury can derail what should be an outstanding career.
Would be interesting to see a spread of ratings and write-ups on the Pirates’ prospects by analyst to see who is actually challenging consensus.
Org wide hitting philosophy.
Kevin Newman isn't convinced.
Any old reports out there on what he had to say about Nick Gonzales or Neil Walker?
In his 2020 draft writeup Law said:
>7. Nick Gonzales, 2B, New Mexico State, Age: 21
When the shutdown started, Gonzales, a sub-six foot second baseman at New Mexico State, was leading the NCAA in home runs, thanks in no small part to five home runs in one day against the Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons, who went 7-45 last spring. Gonzales hits “small,” with a big leg kick but minuscule stride and very little weight transfer, showing plus bat speed with a grooved swing that has produced contact and power. His production in school has been aided by home games at 3,900 feet above sea level — although he also mashed on the Cape last summer, hitting for average and power there, too. He played primarily at shortstop this spring before the season ended, but his arm and range are short for the left side of the infield and he’s going to end up at second. His home run output doesn’t project to carry over into pro ball but he does project to hit for average with some doubles power with solid defense at second, enough to make him a safe pick in the first round for a team that wants a likely regular.
My reaction is don’t shoot the messenger. Law was very high on Johnson when he was drafted. But can anyone deny that he’s taken a major step backward, especially this year? He draws a lot of walks. That’s the best you can say for his offensive game at this point.
I saw him do some things in spring training to convince me he can be a special talent. I thought he would be doing better the first few months, but I am not too worried. I think it will just take longer.
I've been saying for like 2 months they need to move him up to get challenged in the zone by pitchers.
A 20 year old in A+ taking a step back……
.293/.859 the last 30 days
$10M for A Chapman 0.0 WAR
$8M for M Perez (0.3)
$4M for M Taylor 0.5 (-0.4 oWAR)
$3.25 for R Tellez 0.1
$3M for M Gonzales n/a
$2.5M for Y Grandal (0.5)
fWAR is a better measure.
Chapman -0.1
Perez 0.2
MAT 0.1
Tellez -0.3
Marco 0.3
Grandal -0.4
I personally agree. bWAR way too hot on defensive value imo.
Just take the mean between the 2.
They are worth nothing.
I guess that's not fair to Marco and Perez.
Too lazy to look up MAT’s WAR, but it should go down by a full point after today.
Have to keep that batter on 1B at all costs.
This series is the cherry on top of his crappy season.
So infuriating to be a fan of this team some days.
What's Cherington's win percentage? .413 or something the last 5 years? I'd replace some days with 3/5s days haha
Maybe statcast was a mistake? Listening to McKenry talk about how we had 3 balls hit over 105 mph today as if it was a different sort of victory was almost too much.
Excit velocity is the most meaningless stat in all of sports.
I hope some day catch framing will be.
This lady on postgame is at least better to look at than Rob King
Not allowed to say that.
Huh, I thought that was why they hired her.
Everyone knows the issue, and imo, trading prospects will not get this team the longer term offensive answer it desperately needs.
Where I'm going to disagree is with the notion that they need a long-term solution to contend this year. They're playing guys who are so horrendously awful that you'd just need a bunch of AAA rosters and some darts to get upgrades. There are 368 players in MLB with 100+ PAs. Of those, Grandal ranks 364th in wRC+, MAT is 359th, Triolo is 330th and Jack is 328th. MAT is barely above replacement due to his glove, the other three are well below. You'd have to work hard to find four AAAA types who'd be worse, and even then the odds would be heavily against you managing it.
I've never seen a team with a more obvious and more easily fixable problem, and so little willingness to make the slightest effort to fix it. They don't have to get Aaron Judge for a significant upgrade. They just need a few very mediocre players.
This should be nailed to the door.
Those issues all should have been addressed in the off-season. The last thing I want to do right now is trade away good prospects or major league talent i a weak attempt to make up for the off-season mistakes.
If Bob doesn't spend a little more and if Ben doesn't find good talent this next off-season, then we are in big big trouble.
I know I know, Can't trade away prospects. Gotta have a couple prospects in the top 100 rankings. Gotta be one of the top 5 farm systems in Baseball America's rankings so we can dream of a future that never comes. Good free agents don't want to come here due to lack of comittment to winning and Nutting not opening his wallet so yes trade prospects.
If we had this attitude last off-season, there would could have easily traded away Jared Jones, Nick Gonzales, not to mention Paul Skenes. Pretty much most of our roster were prospects at one time. I'm not saying don't trade some. I'm saying being out of contention and trading away prospects at the deadline is the exact worse time to trade them. Remember Glasnow, Meadows and Baz for Archer...... who we released and got signed back by the Rays.
I'd trade Jones as soon as he's healthy honestly. His value may never be higher than this season. Think back on Roansy and Ortiz last season.
The point was if we traded him last year, we would have gotten very little in return.
The window is now. They have the pitching prospects to compete. Problem: they won't get proven hitting by trading prospects. They will likely get prospects not ready for MLB or short term options. Meanwhile 2025, the Skenes, Jones window will be in year two....
I hear you or really do, I was with you 100% this off-season. There were a hundred good players that could have helped ups this off-season, not to mention teams were wanting to give away talent because they were needing to cut salary. Instead we sat on our hands. That is when you get most for your dollar. Right now there is big competiton for star players, so we would have to pay double or triple because we are competing with Mets, Cardinals, Red Sox, Guardians, Padres and several other teams with money that are trying to rent players. Many of these players they will give away this off-season.....if we are ready to spend.
I agree. The pitching is good enough, that short term upgrades would improve this team enough to compete for a playoff spot. Still they need more to win a championship or at least be a contender to win a championship. That's why i said longer term solution. They need more offense beyond this year for the Skenes, Jones, Chandler.....window.
I'm going to predict, right here and now, that this offseason Cherington will bring in the same sort of bottom-feeding, washed-up dreck he's brought in his first five years. He does. not. care.
The problem is that he (BC) absolutely refuses to do multi year deals. There is no commitment beyond one year. That guarantees dreck.
It isn’t even the amount of money he spends. The lack of a second year (or more) kills them.
Until he does something different, there's no reason to believe otherwise.
Getting crappy players you can blame on Ben. Not spending money is a Bob thing. Bob spent money for one run with guys like Burnett, Liriano, Martin, Nova, Cerveli etc. He waited until he thought we could compete. Otherwise Nutting is not spending a dime.
Cherington spent $30M this offseason though. Just spent it really poorly.
It bears repeating. GMBC had the whole off-season, a more marketable stable of prospects to trade, and $30 million to improve the roster. He was unable to bring in even 1, single, solitary position player who can clear the lowest possible bar of replacement level. Why would anyone want this guy to start trading prospects for bats mid-season for a team that is below .500 with a negative run differential? The best move is to start the search for a new GM. Don't let Cherington do anything other than tinker around with the waiver wire and the 26-man. Then get your new GM in during the season, so he can become familiar with the organization and be prepared to make the necessary moves this off-season.
Just wish it could be before the draft, can see them taking Griff O' Forfuckssake at pick 37 or 47.
You referring to Griff O'Ferrall? I sure hope not. When makeup is the first thing that gets talked about about a prospect, no thanks haha.
Makeup? Does the sunblock paint really bring out the color in his eyes?
Yep, said it as soon as they drafted Jebb last year, just wait for Griff next year lol.
Yep #FireBenandDerry
I agree, a few weeks ago it would have been worth the risk. Now they should look for bounce back, change of scenery or blocked prospects types that could potentially help some this year or in the future that doesn't cost too much.
Well, damn. Needed this series, and need the Mets series more. Damn damn.
They don't need the series. They need an actual bottom of the order.
Cherington should be proud. He has constructed a roster to lose game after game of strong starts. We are built to be competitive and lose.
Cherington's memoir:
Losing, Competitively: One GMs Journey to a Single Winning Season, a World Series and a Bunch of Crap
Cherington’s offense never misses an opportunity to miss an opportunity.
Oh, and why tf is Dennis Santana still on this team, much less pitching in the tenth inning?
Because they DFAed Contreras for... reasons. What an idiot our GM is.
Roansy did move his ERA from 3.82 to 4.04 today by giving up 2 ER and one unearned and facing 14 batters over 2.2 innings to be handed the loss but that's still a good bit better than Santana's 7.16 ERA!
Right on!
Rough game for Cutch
Keep extending it.
Alright, come on Cutch. Put one in the seats.
Come on Joey. Put one in the seats.
Way to extend it Triolo.
I thought Gonzales got that.
in 24 of 30 ballparks, he did
Home field disadvantage today.
Can we pin this loss on Dairy Queen Derek or?
Or we could point to the same 1 run, 5 hit offense that has frequently prevented wins this season.
Those are his lineups, too, but sure I'd give it 50/50 Cherington/Shelton as born losers all year long. They're neck and neck and deserve each other.