Position: 3B
Height: 5’11”
Weight: 195 lbs
Bats/Throws: R/R
Born: 01/28/1997
High School: Concordia Lutheran HS (Tomball, TX)
How Acquired: Drafted 1st Rd., 32nd Overall, 2015
Bonus: $1,855,000
40-man Roster: Yes
Rule 5 Eligible: N/A
Minor League Free Agency: N/A
Options Left: 2
Overview
Hayes is the son of former major league, and Pirate, third baseman Charlie Hayes. When drafted, the younger Hayes was an advanced line drive hitter, with some question about his power. Scouts considered him to have average raw power, but in games he took a line drive approach. Hayes got into better shape for his senior year and that helped him move up draft boards; Baseball America ranked him only 57th among draft prospects, but his stock was improving at the time of the draft.
The scouting reports at draft time left something to be desired. His speed supposedly wasn’t good, but as a minor leaguer scouts considered his speed above-average and as of 2022, StatCast agreed. It showed his speed as a little below average in 2023, but that may have been the result of back problems he had throughout the season. Hayes has mostly been a good base stealer. Scouts considered his defense good, but as he advanced through the minors he quickly gained a reputation as an outstanding defender. He has great hands and actions, and a very accurate arm. As a major leaguer, by 2022 at the latest he was clearly the best defensive third baseman in MLB. In fact, he may have been the best defensive player at any position. He didn’t win the Gold Glove because he didn’t play for St. Louis or hit as many home runs as Nolan Arenado.
Hayes’ bat has been more of an issue. He’s had stretches in which he’s hit very well, but overall he’s been disappointing in the majors. One possible issue is that, although he hits the ball very hard — his average exit velocity and hard hit % are among the best in MLB — he doesn’t always elevate it enough. He’s also had a pattern of being hampered for long periods, nearly entire seasons in some cases, by nagging injuries.
2015-17
Hayes played at the two class A levels in 2017-18 and put up just decent numbers, without much power. He did make consistent contact and he was consistently young for the leagues he was in. He may have been limited by a cracked rib that he suffered at some unknown point in 2017 and that hampered his offseason preparation prior to 2018. He also had a back strain in 2017, but he did steal 27 bases that year in 32 tries.
2018-19
Hayes took a step forward in AA in 2018 while playing the entire season at 21. He got off to a slow start, with just a .555 OPS in April. After that, his OPS was well over .800. His already-good plate discipline improved and he showed good gap power, while playing in a home park that strongly depresses right-handed power (his slugging average was 124 points higher on the road than at home). He made only six errors all year and was described by scouts as a shortstop playing third. Hayes’ 2019 season in AAA was a little more disappointing, as he struggled with offspeed stuff and put up numbers that were slightly below league average. He committed only three errors. The Pirates did not call him up in September, but they added him to the 40-man roster after the season.
2020-22
In the pandemic season, the Pirates sent Hayes to their training facility. Despite the major league team being a complete clown show, they left him there even after the risk of him becoming eligible for “Super Two” status was past. Once Hayes came up at the beginning of September, he was by far the team’s best player from the day he arrived, playing Gold Glove quality defense and putting up a 1.124 OPS.
In 2021, Hayes homered in his first at-bat of the season, then in his second game injured his wrist on a swing. He aggravated it while working to come back, so in the end he missed two months. He went on to have a disappointing season and it seems likely that he never fully regained strength in his wrist. The power mostly disappeared and he rarely pulled the ball, instead just trying to serve it into right field. He aggravated the injury near the end of August and missed a few games, then was shut down about a week before the end of the season. At that point, doctors discovered that he had a cyst between his left index and middle fingers, likely due to repeated injuries in that area. The problems didn’t affect Hayes in the field, where he performed at a premium level, frequently making highlight reel plays and committing only three errors in 95 games.
On opening day of 2022, the Pirates signed Hayes to an eight-year extension worth $70M, with a club option for 2030. The contract was the largest ever given out by the team; it surpassed Jason Kendall’s $60M deal signed way, way back in 2000, which is an obvious indicator of the unwillingness of ownership to invest in the team over the years. Hayes’ defensive play should have earned him a Gold Glove, but the voters mindlessly went with Arenado. Hayes’ hitting was another matter. He started the season well, but his final four months were very bad. His OPS by month:
April – .840
May – .704
June – .571
July – .614
August – .590
Sept/Oct – .652
One likely factor was a back injury that, after the season, Hayes said had been bothering him all year. It led to him being out for several short stretches, although he only went on the injured list once. Even with the offensive struggles, though, Hayes’ defense and baserunning had so much value that he led the team in fWAR with 3.0.
2023-24
Hayes effectively had two separate seasons in 2023. He struggled early and at the end of May was hitting 221/273/348 with two home runs. At the very beginning of June he suddenly started hitting — in the month’s first seven games, he had three three-hit games and one five-hit game. He got interrupted by a back problem about a week before the end of the month. He returned for one game in early July, then went out again until the beginning of August. He continued hitting when he returned. From June 1 onward, he batted 307/334/528 with 13 home runs. It may have helped that the Pirates started getting Hayes regular rest, but the main difference was that he started getting the ball in the air more and pulling it more. Defensively, he once again was the best third baseman in MLB, by Outs Above Average, he easily led everybody despite the missed time. He won his first Gold Glove a year later than he should have.
Hayes’ 2024 season was a disaster. He was plagued by pain from a slipped disk in his back that hampered his hitting badly all season, completely sapping his power. He went on the injured list for most of May, then again in mid-August for the rest of the season. For the year, he hit 233/283/290. His wRC+ of 59 was the second-lowest of any player in MLB with 350+ plate appearances. Hayes also seemingly was hampered in the field, although he still played well. He’s gotten extensive medical input and, according to the Pirates, the only viable answer is intensive conditioning. Surgery is not an option.
Stats
Transactions
June 8, 2015: Drafted by the Pittsburgh Pirates in the 1st round, 32nd overall pick; signed on June 16.
November 20, 2019: Contract purchased by the Pittsburgh Pirates.