The collapse of the 2015 club has been routinely blamed on huge drops in production from their best players.
Their Top 5 most valuable players in 2016 were worth 10 less WAR than their Top 5 most valuable players in 2015 en route to a 20-game drop in the win column.
Is there a fan alive who realizes the 2023 club's Top 5 most valuable players *also* cratered to a 10 WAR drop in value last season? They did! Hayes, Suwinski, Reynolds, Keller, and Bednar were worth 10 less WAR last year and the club still won as many games as the year before.
For those who seem to get off wallowing in their own misery, that is a *good* outcome! To lose that much production from your core and still win as many games points to *positive* projection in the future.
Scratch back even half that value and this is a .500 ballclub without a single outside addition.
We scoff when they say their best shot at improvement is internal, but next year that turns out to be absolutely true. All the more reason to be bold and buy into this club instead of waiting to add. The Division is wide open.
Another way to look at this top 5 thing is that the '23 Pirates got 14 WAR from their top 5. When your top 5 averages under 3 WAR, that's not likely to get things done. The '24 Pirates, led by Skenes of course, made some progress by getting 17.2 WAR from their top 5 but they couldn't take advantage of that progress due to Hayes' and Bednar's collapses and a lack of depth in general.
The 2015-2016 Pirates also lost 10 WAR from their 6-10 spots with two of those players (and about 5 WAR) not even on the 2016 roster due to retirement or free agency. That 2015 team was a great team and was bound to regress, but they were doomed when they lost over 7 WAR between Cole and Cutch, two players they had every reason to expect to come close if not maintain the 9.5 WAR they put up in '15. Had just Cutch and Cole repeated '15, we would have been in the pennant race until the last weekend of the season and with deadline acquisitions, who knows?
If you or anyone wants an example of not being doomed by losing WAR from your top 5, the Padres lost 19 WAR from their top 5 in '23 (most of that leaving with Snell and Soto) and yet added 11 wins on the season.
Honestly those are great points. Those five were worth 3.1 war…collectively in 2024! Basically Reynolds and Keller were still decent and the other three were train wrecks.
My question is, which of these three seems best to rebound? I’m leery of bad body relievers, so I’m hesitant to go with Bednar. For some odd reason, I don’t seem overly concerned with Hayes’ injury so I’m inclined to say him. Just a hunch though. Either way, if they eliminate the awful, they’re in good shape.
You can argue Judge earned it but unanimously, with Bobby Witt putting up the highest percentage of team WAR in baseball for a low-budget team who made the playoff, is absolutely hilarious east coast bias.
The problem with the MVP voting now is that it is just a WAR contest (which is a stat that I don't much like). The whole "stick Judge in CF even though he has no business there" gimmick boosted his WAR. I think it has as much to do with everyone bowing uncritically to the sacred WAR idol as with East-coast bias.
I don't have a problem with Judge winning. Both players were very valuable to their teams, and I could go either way on which of the two was most valuable to his team. I do agree with you that it is bologna that Witt didn't receive any 1st place votes, because it was not clear-cut who was more valuable.
You could be right, no doubt. I'd have been 100% behind you if my faith in humanity weren't temporarily restored by Skenes winning RoY over Merrill in spite of the latter putting up higher WAR.
Yes. They completely abandoned the idea of team defense. That is a major reason why they are sitting at home polishing their AL trophy while the Dodgers are admiring their World Series trophy.
They were also better defensively by UZR and OAA than the World Series Champion Los Angeles Dodgers, but I'll take his point seriously and not literally.
Usually I don’t get my undies in a wad over unanimous voting. But I am surprised that not one voter looked at what Witt did with that team around him (especially the position players) and voted for him as #1.
As an aside related to two of the players who are non-tender contracts, Joe was near the bottom of the league in Statcast's adjusted HR-xHR with a -3.4 while BDLC was near the top with a value of 2.5. Not that 3-4 more HRs for Joe would have made much of a difference, but I found the contrast interestng.
Two other Pirates near the top or bottom are Triolo (+2.9) and Gonzales (-2.4)--Triolo must be benefitting from going the other way, while Gonzales would look even better if he played in, say, Cincy or Boston.
Triolo started the year with a new swing that lost him the job at 2B. Gonzales came up in May and looked like he had found the hitting secret he was unable to find in past years. Well, Gonzales dropped about .300+ OPS in Jun and July, and then he was iffy at best.
Triolo, OTOH, dropped his hands pre-swing and found the secret to a better swing and started hitting for better average and power in the second half of the season. He could be a "difference maker" in 2025. At 6'3, 215 and the ability to play every IF position and the corner OF positions, if he can develop into a 15 HR hitter, he can really help this team. He had 9 in 2024 where more than half of his AB's were wasted on his bad swing for more than half the season.
It will be interesting to see how they handle Bednar. I'm guessing they'll tender him (not going out on much of limb) and then try to work out a deal for less than the projected arb value ($6.6MM from MLBTR). I think if Bednar wasn't from Pittsburgh, there would be a good chance that he'd be non-tendered, especially with the pitching depth we think we have.
I'm probably crazy but I'd try to extend Bednar at a lower rate. Something around 2 years at $5 mil a year with a 3rd year team option. Or 3 year with a 4th option.
If the Rangers non-tender him, he should be someone the Pirates go after. Just turned 26, switch-hitter, power/speed combo and I think there is even more power to unleash. Really good defensively!!
Oneil playing CF probably puts a dent in that wish though.
BC went out to get some help for our offense and brought back BDLC and IKF who both proceeded to strike out 13 times for every one walk with the Pirates. Pitiful numbers, and an embarrassment to this ballclub. A bad trade made by a panicky GM who would have been better off just playing kids already with the club like Cook, Yorke, and Peguero. Then a no-decision on Shelton?
The other GM's are just sitting back and waiting for the next opportunity to fleece the Pirates!
With BDLC, it may come down to how much faith they have in the analyst scout who was "pounding the table" for him, if there was such an analyst/scout. If they have confidence in that person, I can see the case for the SSS argument and let's see what he can do after getting more comfortable with his teammates. If the trade was more along the lines of "we have to do something", then he'll likely be gone--Cherington hasn't shown much or any of a tendency to keep a player just because he came back in a trade.
I kinda think their passive approach has more to do with it. They should have been trying to aquire a better player in May instead of waiting till the deadline. If Delay wouldn't have had the knee injury, Bart wouldn't have been acquired. It was a necessity. They need to be more aggressive.
Definitely. Far too passive in letting the market play out a bit and you end up with a bunch of piecemeal moves that don’t move the needle as much as they need to.
In regards to the scouts pounding on the table (love the use of that phrase btw) I'd be curious to know if the results of last season led to any changes in how they approach these decisions? There's so much we don't know about how and why they make decisions that drives a lot of the discussions we have here, and of course this front office leaks less than most. Oddly enough, we have reporting that suggests that the BDLC subject was a point of dispute in their Marlins front office, but we don't know much about how our front office viewed the transaction, which would give us an insight into whether or not he might be tendered.
They are replacing their directors of R&D and professional scouting and while I'm sure that's not entirely or even mostly due to the deadline deals, the outcomes of those deals may have been a contributing factor.
Good point. Always hard to say if a shift in personnel results in a change of philosophy though. You can always argue the idea was right, but the execution was poor.
With the non-decision regarding the Manager of 5 years who owns a .415 Winning Percentage, it is difficult to think the Pirates are committed to winning. Therefore, regardless of what decision they make on Joe and BDLC, it will not move the needle.
The only reason they were able to post the same record as in 2023 is the return of Oneil Cruz, and the fact that the Pirate Pitching improved from 23rd overall in MLB in 2023 to 13th overall in MLB in 2024 (FG). Considering the magnitude of that jump by the pitchers in one year, a good case can be made that the Pirates underperformed overall in 2024 - from the GM right on down to the bullpen Catcher!
I can’t imagine them non-tendering BDLC, waiting for the impending BS this FO will spew to defend their decision. Agreed, paying $4m for a fourth or fifth OF all but tells us they aren’t trying to acquire a legit starting corner OF and MOO bat.
Maybe they try to get De La Cruz signed for $1 million or so to see if Hague can unlock something in him. If he is unwilling to accept this then he should be an easy non-tender decision.
Wholly agree with that financial logic. Even if he turns it around you’re looking at an upside as a .720ish OPS 1 WAR player. So probably not worth expending the funds. And it’s not like they gave up a lot to get him. No reason why they shouldn’t try to do better.
The collapse of the 2015 club has been routinely blamed on huge drops in production from their best players.
Their Top 5 most valuable players in 2016 were worth 10 less WAR than their Top 5 most valuable players in 2015 en route to a 20-game drop in the win column.
Is there a fan alive who realizes the 2023 club's Top 5 most valuable players *also* cratered to a 10 WAR drop in value last season? They did! Hayes, Suwinski, Reynolds, Keller, and Bednar were worth 10 less WAR last year and the club still won as many games as the year before.
For those who seem to get off wallowing in their own misery, that is a *good* outcome! To lose that much production from your core and still win as many games points to *positive* projection in the future.
Scratch back even half that value and this is a .500 ballclub without a single outside addition.
We scoff when they say their best shot at improvement is internal, but next year that turns out to be absolutely true. All the more reason to be bold and buy into this club instead of waiting to add. The Division is wide open.
Another way to look at this top 5 thing is that the '23 Pirates got 14 WAR from their top 5. When your top 5 averages under 3 WAR, that's not likely to get things done. The '24 Pirates, led by Skenes of course, made some progress by getting 17.2 WAR from their top 5 but they couldn't take advantage of that progress due to Hayes' and Bednar's collapses and a lack of depth in general.
well said!
The 2015-2016 Pirates also lost 10 WAR from their 6-10 spots with two of those players (and about 5 WAR) not even on the 2016 roster due to retirement or free agency. That 2015 team was a great team and was bound to regress, but they were doomed when they lost over 7 WAR between Cole and Cutch, two players they had every reason to expect to come close if not maintain the 9.5 WAR they put up in '15. Had just Cutch and Cole repeated '15, we would have been in the pennant race until the last weekend of the season and with deadline acquisitions, who knows?
If you or anyone wants an example of not being doomed by losing WAR from your top 5, the Padres lost 19 WAR from their top 5 in '23 (most of that leaving with Snell and Soto) and yet added 11 wins on the season.
and again!
Get outta here. You and your facts…
Honestly those are great points. Those five were worth 3.1 war…collectively in 2024! Basically Reynolds and Keller were still decent and the other three were train wrecks.
My question is, which of these three seems best to rebound? I’m leery of bad body relievers, so I’m hesitant to go with Bednar. For some odd reason, I don’t seem overly concerned with Hayes’ injury so I’m inclined to say him. Just a hunch though. Either way, if they eliminate the awful, they’re in good shape.
I'm sure I'll be all curmudgeonly when the rip of a hot streak at the start of the season so maybe I'm just contrarian. ;)
Anyways, that question is on my mind as well and really what backs my optimism.
Hayes could give back all his 2023 offensive improvement and *still* add almost 3 WAR.
Suwinski could return to 2022 levels and *still* add another 3.
Bednar could only be as good as '24 Chapman and *still* add another 1.
Those three alone could be 25% *worse* than '23 and still add 7 wins.
Baseball doesn't work like that yadda yadda but still, there's a lot of meat on this bone without even needing to be particularly remarkable.
You can argue Judge earned it but unanimously, with Bobby Witt putting up the highest percentage of team WAR in baseball for a low-budget team who made the playoff, is absolutely hilarious east coast bias.
The problem with the MVP voting now is that it is just a WAR contest (which is a stat that I don't much like). The whole "stick Judge in CF even though he has no business there" gimmick boosted his WAR. I think it has as much to do with everyone bowing uncritically to the sacred WAR idol as with East-coast bias.
I don't have a problem with Judge winning. Both players were very valuable to their teams, and I could go either way on which of the two was most valuable to his team. I do agree with you that it is bologna that Witt didn't receive any 1st place votes, because it was not clear-cut who was more valuable.
You could be right, no doubt. I'd have been 100% behind you if my faith in humanity weren't temporarily restored by Skenes winning RoY over Merrill in spite of the latter putting up higher WAR.
Judge seemed to be in center because they didn’t have a viable one on their roster. Well, Trent Grisham is, but he can’t hit for shit.
Yes. They completely abandoned the idea of team defense. That is a major reason why they are sitting at home polishing their AL trophy while the Dodgers are admiring their World Series trophy.
I wouldn’t say completely abandoned team defense. Volpe and Chisholm are pretty good defenders overall. They just made some bad plays in the series.
They were also better defensively by UZR and OAA than the World Series Champion Los Angeles Dodgers, but I'll take his point seriously and not literally.
We all saw the world series.
Usually I don’t get my undies in a wad over unanimous voting. But I am surprised that not one voter looked at what Witt did with that team around him (especially the position players) and voted for him as #1.
De La Cruz has never been a 1 WAR player. His rookie year he was .9 war but the was 4 years ago. Just my opinion
As an aside related to two of the players who are non-tender contracts, Joe was near the bottom of the league in Statcast's adjusted HR-xHR with a -3.4 while BDLC was near the top with a value of 2.5. Not that 3-4 more HRs for Joe would have made much of a difference, but I found the contrast interestng.
Two other Pirates near the top or bottom are Triolo (+2.9) and Gonzales (-2.4)--Triolo must be benefitting from going the other way, while Gonzales would look even better if he played in, say, Cincy or Boston.
Triolo started the year with a new swing that lost him the job at 2B. Gonzales came up in May and looked like he had found the hitting secret he was unable to find in past years. Well, Gonzales dropped about .300+ OPS in Jun and July, and then he was iffy at best.
Triolo, OTOH, dropped his hands pre-swing and found the secret to a better swing and started hitting for better average and power in the second half of the season. He could be a "difference maker" in 2025. At 6'3, 215 and the ability to play every IF position and the corner OF positions, if he can develop into a 15 HR hitter, he can really help this team. He had 9 in 2024 where more than half of his AB's were wasted on his bad swing for more than half the season.
It will be interesting to see how they handle Bednar. I'm guessing they'll tender him (not going out on much of limb) and then try to work out a deal for less than the projected arb value ($6.6MM from MLBTR). I think if Bednar wasn't from Pittsburgh, there would be a good chance that he'd be non-tendered, especially with the pitching depth we think we have.
I'm probably crazy but I'd try to extend Bednar at a lower rate. Something around 2 years at $5 mil a year with a 3rd year team option. Or 3 year with a 4th option.
When others are fearful, be greedy!
Buy low... sell high.
Jesus Sanchez and Jake Fraley are two non-tender candidates I’d be interested in having around as opposed to BDLC.
I know I liked Sanchez instead of BDLC.
A Sanchez/Cook platoon could be fire.
I’m a fan of Leody Taveras.
If the Rangers non-tender him, he should be someone the Pirates go after. Just turned 26, switch-hitter, power/speed combo and I think there is even more power to unleash. Really good defensively!!
Oneil playing CF probably puts a dent in that wish though.
I like Taveras too but I’m not sure he’s a roster fit right now.
wish we could nontender IKF
BC went out to get some help for our offense and brought back BDLC and IKF who both proceeded to strike out 13 times for every one walk with the Pirates. Pitiful numbers, and an embarrassment to this ballclub. A bad trade made by a panicky GM who would have been better off just playing kids already with the club like Cook, Yorke, and Peguero. Then a no-decision on Shelton?
The other GM's are just sitting back and waiting for the next opportunity to fleece the Pirates!
The Joe and De La Cruz decisions will be key indicators as to how serious the front office is about improving the team. Both should be non-tendered.
Yes. If they tender either, the gig is up. It will be another year of wasting the budget on spare parts.
With BDLC, it may come down to how much faith they have in the analyst scout who was "pounding the table" for him, if there was such an analyst/scout. If they have confidence in that person, I can see the case for the SSS argument and let's see what he can do after getting more comfortable with his teammates. If the trade was more along the lines of "we have to do something", then he'll likely be gone--Cherington hasn't shown much or any of a tendency to keep a player just because he came back in a trade.
The solution is to get rid of whatever scout is pounding the table for bums like BDLC.
I kinda think their passive approach has more to do with it. They should have been trying to aquire a better player in May instead of waiting till the deadline. If Delay wouldn't have had the knee injury, Bart wouldn't have been acquired. It was a necessity. They need to be more aggressive.
Definitely. Far too passive in letting the market play out a bit and you end up with a bunch of piecemeal moves that don’t move the needle as much as they need to.
Yes I'm sure it was the scouts who chose the only available outfielder who just so happened to come at league min.
Wasn’t wholly serious with my comment there.
In regards to the scouts pounding on the table (love the use of that phrase btw) I'd be curious to know if the results of last season led to any changes in how they approach these decisions? There's so much we don't know about how and why they make decisions that drives a lot of the discussions we have here, and of course this front office leaks less than most. Oddly enough, we have reporting that suggests that the BDLC subject was a point of dispute in their Marlins front office, but we don't know much about how our front office viewed the transaction, which would give us an insight into whether or not he might be tendered.
They are replacing their directors of R&D and professional scouting and while I'm sure that's not entirely or even mostly due to the deadline deals, the outcomes of those deals may have been a contributing factor.
Good point. Always hard to say if a shift in personnel results in a change of philosophy though. You can always argue the idea was right, but the execution was poor.
With the non-decision regarding the Manager of 5 years who owns a .415 Winning Percentage, it is difficult to think the Pirates are committed to winning. Therefore, regardless of what decision they make on Joe and BDLC, it will not move the needle.
The only reason they were able to post the same record as in 2023 is the return of Oneil Cruz, and the fact that the Pirate Pitching improved from 23rd overall in MLB in 2023 to 13th overall in MLB in 2024 (FG). Considering the magnitude of that jump by the pitchers in one year, a good case can be made that the Pirates underperformed overall in 2024 - from the GM right on down to the bullpen Catcher!
I can’t imagine them non-tendering BDLC, waiting for the impending BS this FO will spew to defend their decision. Agreed, paying $4m for a fourth or fifth OF all but tells us they aren’t trying to acquire a legit starting corner OF and MOO bat.
$4m?! For *this* guy's first time through arb? That estimate shocks me.
If they pay that guy $4million, they deserve what they get.
Maybe they try to get De La Cruz signed for $1 million or so to see if Hague can unlock something in him. If he is unwilling to accept this then he should be an easy non-tender decision.
No. Just let him go. If every nickel matters, don’t waste time with BDLC.
Wholly agree with that financial logic. Even if he turns it around you’re looking at an upside as a .720ish OPS 1 WAR player. So probably not worth expending the funds. And it’s not like they gave up a lot to get him. No reason why they shouldn’t try to do better.