So, the week we officially lose a year of control of Skenes. Of course that's fine because it's clearly created a greater sense of urgency on Ben's part--"get better _faster_"!
The pirates made the worst decision for the franchise and the best decision for the player in my opinion. If it leads them to really trying to be a contender, great. The problem is in their sense of urgency and lackluster attempts at offensive improvement.
When Skenes started his 5th game in the majors, Ben should have been trying to improve the offense, he waited. When the trade deadline came around he got 4 right handed bats (2 mlb players 2 prospects) on a team that's right handed heavy. He gave away a potential and needed future lefty reliever for a temporary fill.
I just don't trust Cherington to "get better faster".
He will not get better faster. As I said at the time, bringing up Skenes, a generational talent, in mid-May was one of the worst decisions for this franchise I can remember in years. For 4-6 extra weeks of Skenes, it will cost them at least 20 million extra dollars because of the extra arbitration year (not to mention the lost extra year of service time for the ROY and no extra draft pick). This means they will trade him several years earlier, because they certainly will not pay him even for the last 2 arbitration years.
That's what I said in my first sentence. I agree, been saying Skenes was by far the best player in the 2023 draft leading up to it. The only knock was being a pitcher and the potential for injury. My "get better faster" is aimed at Cherington, who I think is worse than Littlefield.
This is something we’ve consistently seen across Nutting’s ownership though. Post-2011, when it was clear that they had a solid core brewing they should’ve signed an actual decent free agent. Instead we got Rod Barajas and Clint Barmes and Erik Bedard.
I had a feeling there was a good chance of it happening, especially when they brought him up. I'll say they surprised me with the timing of his call-up, cause considering their heightened sense of being risk adverse, it felt they would only promote him either before the 172 service day mark, or after the August 45 service days mark. Allowing him the ability to compete for ROY and gaining a full year of service time feels like a complete mess up, without giving themselves a shot at a PPI pick.
The only reason we finished with the same record as last year was due to Skenes, Jones, and the return of Cruz. Roll that around awhile and consider we have to keep plugging in better players to make up for the onfield guidance provided by Derek Shelton. 5 Years, .415 Winning Percentage. Pitiful!
It’s amazing to me that more attention isn’t paid to this EFF up. By calling him up in May they gave him Super 2 status and a chance to finish top 2 in ROY and get the full year of service time (loss of a year of control for the team).
If they had waited until June they keep the extra year of control. If they had started him in MLB they would have gotten a 1st rd draft pick via the PPI incentive.
There were 3 options and they picked the only one that could harm the franchise. Gross negligence.
A lot of people inexplicably (IMO) think it isn’t an eff up because they are trying to win something something. In reality, all you did was blow a year of control on a 76 win, last place team, while ensuring you’re going to trade him sooner because he’s going to get expensive a year sooner. Makes no sense.
The problem with these discussions, especially the ones involving Skenes, is the underlying assumption that there's some sort of window where they're going to try to get better. After five years of making no effort to improve the team each offseason, or in-season for that matter, Cherington is suddenly going to start trying.
I don't think there's any sort of long-term plan like that. The way of operating the last five years is what we're going to see going forward. No effort to find better players or address glaring weaknesses, no urgency, no accountability, a willingness to put up endlessly with replacement-or-below performances. This is the Ben Cherington Way.
And Skenes was never going to stay six years, or even five. He'll get $30M+ in arbitration if he keeps on the way he has. Nutwit ain't paying that.
I'm thinking his 3 arb years will cost Nutting (under the unsupported assumption that Nutting is willing to pay for all 3 years) in the neighborhood of $60MM. So, extend him now for six years and $90MM or, preferably, seven years and $125-130MM and he gets security against the risk of injury while still entering FA before age 30 while we get two more years of his prime. I think at least 29 teams would do everything they could to make this happen.
You’re getting a bargain at 6/$90 MM or 7/$120 (IMO). Some risk involved obviously, as with any extension for a pitcher, but he’s likely to be a 5-6 WAR workhouse and you’d be paying him as a 2 WAR guy there. Problem is, I think they already maxed themselves out on payroll.
Yes, 6/90 may not be quite enough because by my simplistic estimates, that would be close to buying out his first FA year for ~$30MM. Perhaps a better way to structure the contract is 5/60 or so and then team options for $40MM for each of the first two FA years. If Bob is still the owner, then those probably get turned down. But if, say, Mark Cuban ;) is the owner, then we'd have him for two more seasons.
The Braves players were all signing extensions cause they saw a FO that was actively trying to push for a consistently competitive club. Like you said, the Pirates don't give off that impression, so no way Skenes is going to sign away his prime years, unless for some reason he has that "I wanna play in one place, and one place only for my career" gene. Even then, the Pirates would probably eventually trade him.
I agree there doesn’t seem to be much of a plan, but I also think it’s possible that they are overvaluing what they have. I wonder if they assume they have 12 fWAR in Keller, Reynolds and Hayes. You look at the Keller extension in that context, and the AAV, you have to think they view that as a window.
Oh, it's a consistent pattern to overvalue what they have. The main role for all those staffers who were filling up the locker room is probably to invent ways to show Ben what a brilliant job he's done and how the W/L record isn't really the W/L record.
Been out of town, but have the Pirates selected a box and checked it for whether we will have Derek Shelton as our Manager or if they still have that issue under consideration. I know it's a difficult decision with just 5 years of abject failure on which to base a logical decision.
Skenes a finalist for ROY and CYA.
Siani went 1 for 4 today
So, the week we officially lose a year of control of Skenes. Of course that's fine because it's clearly created a greater sense of urgency on Ben's part--"get better _faster_"!
The pirates made the worst decision for the franchise and the best decision for the player in my opinion. If it leads them to really trying to be a contender, great. The problem is in their sense of urgency and lackluster attempts at offensive improvement.
When Skenes started his 5th game in the majors, Ben should have been trying to improve the offense, he waited. When the trade deadline came around he got 4 right handed bats (2 mlb players 2 prospects) on a team that's right handed heavy. He gave away a potential and needed future lefty reliever for a temporary fill.
I just don't trust Cherington to "get better faster".
He will not get better faster. As I said at the time, bringing up Skenes, a generational talent, in mid-May was one of the worst decisions for this franchise I can remember in years. For 4-6 extra weeks of Skenes, it will cost them at least 20 million extra dollars because of the extra arbitration year (not to mention the lost extra year of service time for the ROY and no extra draft pick). This means they will trade him several years earlier, because they certainly will not pay him even for the last 2 arbitration years.
That's what I said in my first sentence. I agree, been saying Skenes was by far the best player in the 2023 draft leading up to it. The only knock was being a pitcher and the potential for injury. My "get better faster" is aimed at Cherington, who I think is worse than Littlefield.
This is something we’ve consistently seen across Nutting’s ownership though. Post-2011, when it was clear that they had a solid core brewing they should’ve signed an actual decent free agent. Instead we got Rod Barajas and Clint Barmes and Erik Bedard.
Barajas was worth -2.6 fWAR. That's an accomplishment Cherington's been trying to beat for five years.
I had a feeling there was a good chance of it happening, especially when they brought him up. I'll say they surprised me with the timing of his call-up, cause considering their heightened sense of being risk adverse, it felt they would only promote him either before the 172 service day mark, or after the August 45 service days mark. Allowing him the ability to compete for ROY and gaining a full year of service time feels like a complete mess up, without giving themselves a shot at a PPI pick.
The only reason we finished with the same record as last year was due to Skenes, Jones, and the return of Cruz. Roll that around awhile and consider we have to keep plugging in better players to make up for the onfield guidance provided by Derek Shelton. 5 Years, .415 Winning Percentage. Pitiful!
It’s amazing to me that more attention isn’t paid to this EFF up. By calling him up in May they gave him Super 2 status and a chance to finish top 2 in ROY and get the full year of service time (loss of a year of control for the team).
If they had waited until June they keep the extra year of control. If they had started him in MLB they would have gotten a 1st rd draft pick via the PPI incentive.
There were 3 options and they picked the only one that could harm the franchise. Gross negligence.
A lot of people inexplicably (IMO) think it isn’t an eff up because they are trying to win something something. In reality, all you did was blow a year of control on a 76 win, last place team, while ensuring you’re going to trade him sooner because he’s going to get expensive a year sooner. Makes no sense.
The problem with these discussions, especially the ones involving Skenes, is the underlying assumption that there's some sort of window where they're going to try to get better. After five years of making no effort to improve the team each offseason, or in-season for that matter, Cherington is suddenly going to start trying.
I don't think there's any sort of long-term plan like that. The way of operating the last five years is what we're going to see going forward. No effort to find better players or address glaring weaknesses, no urgency, no accountability, a willingness to put up endlessly with replacement-or-below performances. This is the Ben Cherington Way.
And Skenes was never going to stay six years, or even five. He'll get $30M+ in arbitration if he keeps on the way he has. Nutwit ain't paying that.
I'm thinking his 3 arb years will cost Nutting (under the unsupported assumption that Nutting is willing to pay for all 3 years) in the neighborhood of $60MM. So, extend him now for six years and $90MM or, preferably, seven years and $125-130MM and he gets security against the risk of injury while still entering FA before age 30 while we get two more years of his prime. I think at least 29 teams would do everything they could to make this happen.
You’re getting a bargain at 6/$90 MM or 7/$120 (IMO). Some risk involved obviously, as with any extension for a pitcher, but he’s likely to be a 5-6 WAR workhouse and you’d be paying him as a 2 WAR guy there. Problem is, I think they already maxed themselves out on payroll.
Yes, 6/90 may not be quite enough because by my simplistic estimates, that would be close to buying out his first FA year for ~$30MM. Perhaps a better way to structure the contract is 5/60 or so and then team options for $40MM for each of the first two FA years. If Bob is still the owner, then those probably get turned down. But if, say, Mark Cuban ;) is the owner, then we'd have him for two more seasons.
The Braves players were all signing extensions cause they saw a FO that was actively trying to push for a consistently competitive club. Like you said, the Pirates don't give off that impression, so no way Skenes is going to sign away his prime years, unless for some reason he has that "I wanna play in one place, and one place only for my career" gene. Even then, the Pirates would probably eventually trade him.
I agree there doesn’t seem to be much of a plan, but I also think it’s possible that they are overvaluing what they have. I wonder if they assume they have 12 fWAR in Keller, Reynolds and Hayes. You look at the Keller extension in that context, and the AAV, you have to think they view that as a window.
Oh, it's a consistent pattern to overvalue what they have. The main role for all those staffers who were filling up the locker room is probably to invent ways to show Ben what a brilliant job he's done and how the W/L record isn't really the W/L record.
Been out of town, but have the Pirates selected a box and checked it for whether we will have Derek Shelton as our Manager or if they still have that issue under consideration. I know it's a difficult decision with just 5 years of abject failure on which to base a logical decision.