62 Comments

As a sobering reminder of the futility of being a Pirates fan, only one team in the last forty years won the World Series with an opening payroll in the bottom half of the league. The 2003 Marlins. And payroll disparity between the top and bottom teams has only increased over the years.

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Probably one of the more interesting interviews David Laurila has had:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/pirates-prospect-termarr-johnson-wants-us-to-see-him-play/

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All of us are disappointed that at this point in the offseason, clear needs have not been clearly addressed. We are split on Horwitz but may be united that he is better than the 250 pound bounce back guys of the last several years. We like Ferguson but are looking for more on the bullpen front.

What we don't have is the "inside" guy who can blame the owner for not spending or the GM for not acquiring. With payroll during the Huntington period going over $100M and the rate of inflation figured in, I'm leaning towards this being a GM problem. However, if this is a GM problem, the personnel decision ultimately rests on the owner, too. Come on, Mr. Nutting, either open up the pocketbook or hold your management team accountable. There is a good business opportunity to make more money with a winning team!

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If Cherington has money available to spend than you have to figure he would spend it as a matter of self-preservation. One or two more losing seasons and Cherington will probably get fired.

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You talk like Nutting cares about winning. I am no longer convinced this is true.

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His actions indicate that winning is definitely not high up on his list of priorities. He surely wouldn't mind winning as long as he can do so on the cheap. But good luck with that. Nutting, though, knows that firing the GM and manager every five years or so is a good way to placate the masses and make it seem like he is prioritizing winning.

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Yeah, I think a big part of his lack of action is a lack of available money. A smaller part is that he seems to be risk-averse, which isn't all bad.

He was actually asked this at Pirates Fest, specifically if the fallout from the Archer trade made them more cautious about trades. He said no, but he's yet to make a move that I would classify as high reward/high risk.

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The part of his response that puzzled me was that he didn’t take the easy softball there, which is: “but I didn’t make that trade!” It struck me as odd to base such a question on a move he didn’t have anything to do with.

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According to Cot's, the Projected 40 man Salaries for the NL Central in 2025:

Chicago Cubs - $179.8 mil

St Louis Cards - $146.6 mil

Milwaukee Brewers - $108.2 (11th of 15 in the NL)

Cincinnati Reds - $104.6 mil (13th of 15 in the NL)

Pittsburgh Pirates - $ 81.6 mil (14th of 15 in the NL)

Only NL Team spending less than the Pirates is Miami. We are $23 mil behind the Reds and $26.6 mil behind the Brewers - why are the Pirates so far behind teams representing Metropolitan Area's that are equal to the Pittsburgh Metro Area. With possibly a Top 3 Rotation in the NL, the only add of a hitting starter during the off-season was the trade to get Spencer Horwitz for 1B.

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Good find here! The payroll number is one thing but seeing how far we are behind the Reds even though they are the next closest team is kind of shocking to see, even for someone who follows the team closely.

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With a $30 million expenditure the Pirates could easily sign a RF (Grichuk or Hays), a vet starting pitcher (Gibson or Heaney) and another bullpen arm (take your pick). And probably they would have money left over. May need to extend an offer of a two or three year contract to get a RF or starting pitcher worth signing but the competitive window should be open for the next three or four years, at the least, so why not make this type of signing. A SS would have also been nice but there is no one left worth signing. Perhaps a trade instead?

This all being said, what are the odds of this actually happening? Less than 1%?

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I like the idea. I think I’m leaning hays and Quintana. Then grab a Craig Krimbel to see if he can do what Chapman did last year. Like you said you’d still be around $100M

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Or get creative? The Yankees are trying to get someone to take Stroman off their hands. Get a prospect to go with that deal. Edit: not advocating for Stroman per se, but something like a vet + prospect I’d be open to.

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If they don’t land an obvious upgrade for RF or SS, I’d just rather they use RF as an open audition for the guys on hand (maybe could get on board with Grichuck for the short side platoon in RF).

With Skenes, though, I’d like them to take a high risk/high reward swing with Luis Robert. He’s a potential game changer and I believe injuries and the White Sox culture (is it a coincidence that others like Tim Anderson, Benetendi, Eloy and others all took nosedives?) are the prime reasons for his horrific year last year. A lot of risk, but his 2023 was outstanding on both sides of the ball. Taking on all of his salary (and potential 2 option years) adds roughly $20M to the payroll each year. If he performs close to 2023, that’s good value.

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They could probably get Stroman and Marte plus a prospect for each, pay less than $20 million total while only giving up lottery ticket prospects. If they want better prospects back either eat more cash or up the prospects going the other way.

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This would be a smart way of improving the roster. Although Stroman's vesting option is a hindrance to trading for him.

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Isn’t it 140 innings? I feel that’s unlikely if the Bucs traded for him.

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I think we'll sign Hays, Grichuk, or Verdugo but are waiting for a better deal. Players shop for teams offering the best deal, we shop for (similar) players offering the best deal. One of the two RH bats makes more sense, at least for those of us who hope Suwinski bounces back and aren't ready to turn things over to Cook.

I agree about a veteran starter because we have too many young pitchers to be confident that we can cover a full season's worth of innings, but I don't think they'll add a starter on anything more than a minor league deal (i.e., not someone we'd be excited about).

I also want a back-of-the-pen reliever as insurance against Bednar and/or Holderman struggling or getting injured. My expectation of such an acquisition falls between the two above cases.

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I'm guessing here and could be completely wrong.

I would guess they have made offers to Verdugo and Grichuk, but Verdugo and Grichuk's agents are holding off for a better offer from a better team.

If they don't get those better offers from better teams, you'll see one of them or a similar player sign before ST.

They'll sign more NRI relievers, and it wouldn't surprise me to see them sign Patrick Corbin if they can get him for 1 year and cheap.

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Please no on Corbin. He is toast.

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So basically we will be looking at the last man standing for RF, someone not even worthy of a MLB contract to fill the starting rotation vet role and another reliever for the same amount or less we signed Ferguson for. Bleak. Perhaps $5 million in added expenditures. With a likely outcome of getting what they paid for.

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That’s also lower than 2024. Nuttin’s showing his desire to win by cutting payroll.

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I feel an extension coming….

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No doubt. The “plan” is to hope they can ride the rotation to a .500 season and the fleeting illusion of contention, then declare it a success, while the real success goes into the Nuttin Trust Fund.

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I'm wondering why the MLBPA has not taken action against the Pirates. How can they be watching this charade, travesty, and not make any attempt to call attention to this lack of willingness to use the MONIES BEING PAID TO THE PIRATES EACH YEAR SO THAT THEY CAN "COMPETE"!

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I believe that the agreement in the CBA uses the CB tax figure, where the Pirates sit at 103 million. The figure mentioned for the A's when the grievance issue was discussed for was 105 million, which the Pirates will easily exceed during the season. I don't know if their value is the same as the A's, but it can't be much different.

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They did. They filed a grievance a couple years ago about the Pirates not utilizing luxury tax money to increase the payroll. The Pirates defense was that the agreement only states that it needs to go towards improving the team. Not sure whatever happened with it.

But honestly, there's no way to prove that they did or didn't. The Pirates can just change the accounting around, keep the same payroll, and say that 100% of their luxury tax money went to payroll.

The ultimate solution is a floor, which the MLBPA will never agree to because they think it will lead to a cap. I would imagine a bunch of small market owners will vote against a floor without a cap as well....including our favorite one.

Let's face it. Moaning about payroll is pointless. BN wants to make a tidy profit every year, and if winning happens to come along with that, great.

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Reminds me of the scene from Braveheart where the King orders his Archers to shoot arrows into the melee.

“We’ll kill our own men.

“Yes, but we’ll kill theirs, too.”

Losing on the field is a small sacrifice to make to ensure profits.

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"If you kill ours, we don't have to pay them. Genius!"

-- Commander Bob

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As a former LR Rep, every grievance costs money. Keep filing and they may have to hire an outside firm to represent them or try to play it straight. If we do not see players added, all the money they spend on facilities and training are kind of useless - there's a caliber of player we may not have and the only way to get that itch scratched is to buy the players needed.

Right now would be a great time to do it because the pitchers alone will continue to add butts in the seats!

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omg do you honestly believe the cost of defending against MLBPA grievances even remotely compares to raising payroll $20 - $30M?

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More from "Baseball Wit and Wisdom" to help stoke the stove in advance of the return of baseball activities next month:

"One of the beautiful things about baseball is that every once in a while you come into a situation where you want to, and where you have to, reach down and prove something."

-- Nolan Ryan

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Missed most of yesterday’s chat on ZIPS. After looking at the projections, it’s fairly apparent that this team will live or die by their ‘tail’ distributions. Meaning, for them to make any noise, they will need the majority of their roster to outperform their projections and a handful of guys to push their 80 percentile or better. Those 50 percentile projections are so mundane. Maybe they make sense in the total collective, but this team is only going to win if it hits on the extremes.

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Some would say that Cherington's claim to fame, the WS with the Red Sox, was due to an unexpected number of players hitting their upper percentiles with very few in the other tail. Maybe lightening will strike twice.

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That’s absolutely what happened. The next year they all reverted to form and he finished last, which is the fat part of his performance curve.

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Love the percentiles that you threw out. The chance that the majority our players reaching the 80 percentile is about 1 in a million, unless the events are dependent on each other. Maybe we have a really good leader, hitting coach, a player that gets everybody going, or maybe just a well constructed line-up. Otherwise, statistics say we are a 70 to 80 win team.

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If you’re referencing Zips then “statistics” say this is about an 82 win team. Falling into the 70-win range would be 20th percentile probability. It’s right there in the article!

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I wasn't referencing zips, just following up on the statement that Anthony said the majority of the roster needs to reach their 80 percentile or better. For that to happen statistics says that is about 1 in a million, unless their are dependent variables involved. As far as the last sentence, I could have left that out for argument sake.

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For the majority of the roster to hit 80th percentile is 1 in a million????

What statistical process are you using?

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he got on you this one, bro.

The statistical probability of 13 players, the bare majority of a 25-man roster, simultaneously reaching their 80th percentile projection is 1 in *ten* million.

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Yes he did

I'm an idiot!

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I really wasn't trying to get anybody. Getting talented guys (for the dollar) is the most important. After that, for the Pirates to be successful they need to find a way to get these players to reach a higher percentile. I have plenty of opinions on this, but I'm pretty sure no one wants to hear them. :)

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My main point is there needs to be other variables involved for us to achieve well because that many players don't reach their 80th percentile all by chance.

Without getting into the poisson distribution, let's assume the chance of a player reaching the 80th percentile is .2 (because statistically that happens 20 percent of the time). 26 players times .2 gives you an average of 5.2 players should reach the 80th percentile. The standard deviation for such an event is a little above 2. To reach 14 players gives a z score of 4.4 which is clearly off the charts and less than 1 in a million.

As far as the majority of the roster hitting their 80th percentile, it is much more likely than that because how baseball players perform depends on many dependent factors that I mentioned which could be their teammates, roster construction, good coaching, etc.....

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"it is much more likely than that because how baseball players perform depends on many dependent factors that I mentioned which could be their teammates, roster construction, good coaching"

Treating dependent variables as independent variables is a fundamental flaw in much statistical analysis. Your argument is identical (different context, of course)... to a debate that I had about game theory and poker online recently. Very well stated.

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We will see where the final payroll numbers are, but there is a serious problem here. With a little infusion of talent, i.e. a backend bullpen piece AND a legitimate SS or OFer, the team stands a chance. If Nutting is so cheap that he cannot raise payroll to even the $100 million bar to give Cherington the funds to put the Pirates in a place where they have a chance, then the fault is all his. If Cherington has $15 million in the budget and has not used it yet, waiting to fill out the roster with a bunch of castoffs in spring training, then the fault is his.

To me, the moves this offseason seem to make more sense than anything that Cherington has done previously. Ferguson was a great deal for the price. The Horwitz trade is the first move that, in my opinion, moves the bar on the Pirates being competitive in almost a decade. There needs to be some follow up though.

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A big move for Kim and bringing Chapman back would’ve had me genuinely excited.

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They absolutely should have signed Chapman. I think he liked it in Pittsburgh and it is hard to find end-of-the-bullpen help for the 2 year/20 million$ he likely would have accepted to stay in Pittsburgh. With Bednar's performance questionable, they will miss Chapman.

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Not too late to trade IKF, sign Kim, and sign Estevez.

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Great minds - I thought this to be a good day to list the Projected Salaries of the teams in the NL Central.

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Payroll has really become THE issue at this point. Every other team, every single one, raises payroll every so often when they are in a competitive window: even the Marlins and As. Only Bob Nutting refuses to break even for a couple of seasons to improve his brand and boost the popularity of the sport in Pittsburgh. Bob stands alone. The player's association needs to advocate for a salary floor in the next collective bargaining agreement.

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MLBPA doesn't care about a floor or competitiveness. They care about Juan Soto getting the monster contract. The Cherington Pirates suit them fine because they hand out multiple major league contracts every year to veterans who otherwise would have to take MiL deals, and who then are liable to complain to the union.

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Didn't the players vote down the MLBPA negotiators at the last negotiations? The majority of MLB players are near minimum salary. The way I saw it, the owners basically bought off the players, as the players turned against their negotiations team (by getting a nice raise on league minimum).

I agree with what you said, but think the owners don't worry too much about what the players think because they feel they can buy them off again, if needed.

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Any of you awake out there, do yourself a favor, and pull up MLB TV for the interviews with Josh and Richie Palacios. They did a free clinic at Abe Lincoln HS, Coney Island NY with a lot of kids who do not usually get the opportunities to work with MLB Players, or attend the camps that can be very expensive. Two kids who grew up in Brooklyn and giving back - great story. Josh had an excellent year at AAA - .860+ OPS and provided a good LH bat when called up.

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Didn’t see the interview, but I attended Lincoln HS, it’s a big school and was well funded back in the early 80’s. Don’t recall anyone ever drafted on the baseball side, but basketball is a different story, the school and its gym has been featured in a few movies that I’ve noticed over the years (He got game .) My point is that it’s a big school.

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Is that where Marbury went? I think Sebastian Telfair went there.

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Yes and yes, a few years after I graduated,1985 seems like a lifetime ago, I guess because it is!!!

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Wish you would have seen it - those two brothers did a great job

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Hopefully they have it on MLB.TV, thanks!

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I hope Josh becomes a solid contributor. Love the energy he brings.

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I don’t think he’s good enough, but I am rooting for him. Great guy to root for.

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