I like the pitching options. But some unexpected things will happen - injury, velocity issues, etc. At this point, the best chance for contention is not trading from strength which is fleeting but by adding hitting, preferably by a couple established major league free agents (i.e. actual hitters with some MLB success). In my opinion, trading Keller is risky since there really is no one else with more than one successful season under his belt. <Still skittish on management in any scenario, obviously.>
A little strange, there were no NL vote details in article. Chris Sale had 26 first place, 4 second place votes. Wheeler had 4 first place, 25 second, and 1 fourth place votes. Skenes had 1 second place, 13 thirds, 3 fourths, 4 fifths.
I think he is a decent back of the rotation or long relief lefty. I'd love to see the pirates get aggressive and go after Crochet (assuming an extention) as an upgrade to the rotation. With that, it is not a priority, adding another lefty for the rotation does make sense.
With Skenes, Jones, Keller, Ortiz, and Chandler, we'll likely have an all righty rotation. Maybe they'll get creative and have a lefty opener or two where they get through the top of the lineup once before bringing in, say, Ortiz and/or ? (I don't know how Jones, Keller, or Chandler would handle not starting but maybe the incentive would be having a chance to finish the game by pitching innings 3-9; plus, they could get 4-inning Ws).
For Skenes, I'm expecting multiple complete games now that the reigns will be off. Nothing crazy like the old days, but maybe 4-5.
Since 3 guys led the majors in 2024 with a whopping 2 CG's, I think 4 - 5 is probably pretty unrealistic.
Managers just don't let guys complete games anymore, unless they are crazy efficient with the pitch count. That's the one thing that Skenes hasn't shown yet.
You're right, it is unrealistic--even Scherzer has only had one season with 4 CGs, and it would take trading K's for quick outs. But he is Paul Skenes!
I like Keller, but it makes a lot of sense to trade him and use the money elsewhere.
OTOH, whenever we thought we had "too much" pitching, we've been burned later. And any team that had to resort to bullpen games just to get through the season doesn't need to be trading starters.
It makes sense to trade Keller on one level, but on another level it’s going to be hard to replace the innings and as you said, pitching depth is fleeting. It might make sense to cut payroll elsewhere, if needed. Perhaps trading IKF and/or Hayes, non-tendering BDLC/Joe, etc.
It may be hard to replace his (mostly) quality innings but they do have Burrows, Oviedo, Harrington and maybe some reclamation project to try to fill those innings competently. I really like Mitch, but unloading him is the only feasible way to create more room to sign a quality FA to help the offense. As noted below, that would still include non-tendering BDLC and Joe.
Unfortunately, in order to unload IKF’s salary they would need to include a decent prospect. When he signed his current deal, it was one of, if not the biggest outliers when compared to the projections. The deal value of the contract was in question the moment he signed and he didn’t do anything in the last year to change that tune.
So, IKF and Barco for a single A lotto ticket; or
Keller to the O’s for Mayo, then use the savings toward a quality outfielder usually above their price range. (Remember, if traded, Keller’s contract comes off the books for this year and the rest of the deal, allowing them to possibly sign someone to more than a 1-2 year contract).
Then, move Reynolds to full time DH in 2026 after Cutch retires.
I don't think they will need to include a prospect to trade IKF. 7.5 million for IKF is basically market value. They won't get anything for him, but they should not lose anything to move his salary. He is a legitimate major-league player.
I’m not sure I trust the depth to replace his workhorse innings.
I’m skeptical that they would have to attach a prospect to IKF to move him as his salary is commensurate with what he’d produce.
Also not sure you get Mayo for Keller. One of the issues with the extension, as opposed to trading him when he had cheaper years of control, is that the salary saps a lot of the residual value. It’ll make it hard to get what he’s worth, at least I suspect.
Like I said though, I wouldn’t shut the door on any possibility, but I don’t love trading Keller for those reasons.
because of IKF´s salary and raises for Keller, Bednar and Reynolds, we have like $8mil to spend this offseason - - and that assumes Joe and BDLC are cut on friday
Yeah the payroll appears to be tight so hopefully they are on the lookout for a variety of ways to create the dollars they will need to spend in order to improve. I wouldn’t take anything off the table.
Sale has now won a Cy, has a 2nd place finish, a 3rd, 2 4ths, 2 5th and a 6th place finish. That is 8 pretty solid years. A downside is his other 6 years his overall record is 21-21. I know wins matter less and less, but can voters ignore he has only 138 career wins?
Sandy Koufax and Dizzy Dean had barely 300 between them. As NMR said, voters have to adjust with the way the game has shifted or just not induct anybody on the mound.
I know I'm aging when I can remember the debate around how high Sale should be drafted because of his funky delivery, slender frame, and playing at a smaller school as if it was last year, and now we're talking about solidifying his HOF case.
He may still be short. From 12-18, he was third in fWAR behind Kershaw and Scherzer. Then the injuries set in and he looked pretty rough. But last year, he was legitimately outstanding. Another couple years close to that and he should get in. Maybe not on the first ballot.
I like the pitching options. But some unexpected things will happen - injury, velocity issues, etc. At this point, the best chance for contention is not trading from strength which is fleeting but by adding hitting, preferably by a couple established major league free agents (i.e. actual hitters with some MLB success). In my opinion, trading Keller is risky since there really is no one else with more than one successful season under his belt. <Still skittish on management in any scenario, obviously.>
A little strange, there were no NL vote details in article. Chris Sale had 26 first place, 4 second place votes. Wheeler had 4 first place, 25 second, and 1 fourth place votes. Skenes had 1 second place, 13 thirds, 3 fourths, 4 fifths.
Make Jones the closer.
yinz happy with Falter in the rotation or think we need to acquire a left handed starting pitcher?
I think he is a decent back of the rotation or long relief lefty. I'd love to see the pirates get aggressive and go after Crochet (assuming an extention) as an upgrade to the rotation. With that, it is not a priority, adding another lefty for the rotation does make sense.
Falter & Ortiz are the new Locke & Morton. Passable back of the rotation arms, but an area that could be improved on.
Bubba is the new Jameson. Just a better, healthier version.
Skenes, Keller & Jones are the new Cole, Burnett and Liriano.
I like this, and you still have backup with some collection of the likes of Oviedo, Burrows, Harrington, Ashcraft, etc.
Turning Ortiz to a full-time multi-inning reliever will also supplement the bullpen
Max Fried.
bring back Cantina
You misspelled Candelaria.
I’m ok with Falter, but maybe you add some left handed depth?
With Skenes, Jones, Keller, Ortiz, and Chandler, we'll likely have an all righty rotation. Maybe they'll get creative and have a lefty opener or two where they get through the top of the lineup once before bringing in, say, Ortiz and/or ? (I don't know how Jones, Keller, or Chandler would handle not starting but maybe the incentive would be having a chance to finish the game by pitching innings 3-9; plus, they could get 4-inning Ws).
For Skenes, I'm expecting multiple complete games now that the reigns will be off. Nothing crazy like the old days, but maybe 4-5.
Since 3 guys led the majors in 2024 with a whopping 2 CG's, I think 4 - 5 is probably pretty unrealistic.
Managers just don't let guys complete games anymore, unless they are crazy efficient with the pitch count. That's the one thing that Skenes hasn't shown yet.
You're right, it is unrealistic--even Scherzer has only had one season with 4 CGs, and it would take trading K's for quick outs. But he is Paul Skenes!
yet another reason to trade Keller
I like Keller, but it makes a lot of sense to trade him and use the money elsewhere.
OTOH, whenever we thought we had "too much" pitching, we've been burned later. And any team that had to resort to bullpen games just to get through the season doesn't need to be trading starters.
It makes sense to trade Keller on one level, but on another level it’s going to be hard to replace the innings and as you said, pitching depth is fleeting. It might make sense to cut payroll elsewhere, if needed. Perhaps trading IKF and/or Hayes, non-tendering BDLC/Joe, etc.
It may be hard to replace his (mostly) quality innings but they do have Burrows, Oviedo, Harrington and maybe some reclamation project to try to fill those innings competently. I really like Mitch, but unloading him is the only feasible way to create more room to sign a quality FA to help the offense. As noted below, that would still include non-tendering BDLC and Joe.
Unfortunately, in order to unload IKF’s salary they would need to include a decent prospect. When he signed his current deal, it was one of, if not the biggest outliers when compared to the projections. The deal value of the contract was in question the moment he signed and he didn’t do anything in the last year to change that tune.
So, IKF and Barco for a single A lotto ticket; or
Keller to the O’s for Mayo, then use the savings toward a quality outfielder usually above their price range. (Remember, if traded, Keller’s contract comes off the books for this year and the rest of the deal, allowing them to possibly sign someone to more than a 1-2 year contract).
Then, move Reynolds to full time DH in 2026 after Cutch retires.
I don't think they will need to include a prospect to trade IKF. 7.5 million for IKF is basically market value. They won't get anything for him, but they should not lose anything to move his salary. He is a legitimate major-league player.
i dont think Cutch is going to retire any time soon
I’m not sure I trust the depth to replace his workhorse innings.
I’m skeptical that they would have to attach a prospect to IKF to move him as his salary is commensurate with what he’d produce.
Also not sure you get Mayo for Keller. One of the issues with the extension, as opposed to trading him when he had cheaper years of control, is that the salary saps a lot of the residual value. It’ll make it hard to get what he’s worth, at least I suspect.
Like I said though, I wouldn’t shut the door on any possibility, but I don’t love trading Keller for those reasons.
normally each offseason we have $30mil to spend
because of IKF´s salary and raises for Keller, Bednar and Reynolds, we have like $8mil to spend this offseason - - and that assumes Joe and BDLC are cut on friday
Yeah the payroll appears to be tight so hopefully they are on the lookout for a variety of ways to create the dollars they will need to spend in order to improve. I wouldn’t take anything off the table.
if not now then in july if we are winning then
Maybe this solidifies Sale’s HOF case.
Sale has now won a Cy, has a 2nd place finish, a 3rd, 2 4ths, 2 5th and a 6th place finish. That is 8 pretty solid years. A downside is his other 6 years his overall record is 21-21. I know wins matter less and less, but can voters ignore he has only 138 career wins?
Sandy Koufax and Dizzy Dean had barely 300 between them. As NMR said, voters have to adjust with the way the game has shifted or just not induct anybody on the mound.
Seems like at some point voters are gonna have to adjust their thinking or else they’re effectively done voting in starting pitchers.
I know I'm aging when I can remember the debate around how high Sale should be drafted because of his funky delivery, slender frame, and playing at a smaller school as if it was last year, and now we're talking about solidifying his HOF case.
When I think of Sale, I think of him cutting his Whitesox jersey to pieces in the clubhouse.
Yeah he’s got some weirdo dickish qualities. An angry lefty.
He may still be short. From 12-18, he was third in fWAR behind Kershaw and Scherzer. Then the injuries set in and he looked pretty rough. But last year, he was legitimately outstanding. Another couple years close to that and he should get in. Maybe not on the first ballot.