Why do I have a bad feeling the Pirates will announce a Noah Syndergaard one year deal for 8 million and hope for a bounce back. The pitching market seems robust and I’m getting a little worried the Pirates will end up with much less than we were hoping for
I was very happy to see Suarez leave Cincy a few years back. A very strong defensive 3B, he seems to be able to play every day - 94.7% of the total games available in the past 8 years, and his 3.2 fWAR in 2023 was heavily weighted by his defensive play at 3B. The D plus the ability to answer the bell almost every day are well worth his $11 mil salary - the D'backs will also have a Club Option available to them for 2025.
I just hate it that the Yankees, Dodgers, and Braves pretty much get what they want. I want Montgomery! What would it take to keep the Yankees from signing him? Break the bank! Be bold! Sign him. Snell too.
Our realistic chance at acquiring a player others want is via a trade using our prospect (or recently graduated prospects) capital. For example, Davis, Jones, and a low-A lottery ticket like Blanco or De Los Santos for Cease (which is rated as a fair trade by Baseball Trade Values). I don't know that I would do that trade, but that's how we can compete with teams like the Dodgers who are interested in Cease.
I seems as if it will take at least a commitment of 5 years and $100+ mil. He's entering his age 31 season, and is coming off a year where he was a World Series hero after being traded to Texas from St Louis during the 2023 season. The Yankees drafted him originally, they need a SP or two, and they have the bucks to outbid anyone. Texas may want to keep him to go along with the SP's they have like Eovaldi, or SP's they will be getting back from injury such as Jacob DeGrom.
I recall being surprised (and annoyed) that the Cardinals could acquire Montgomery for Badler, and now 1.5 years later the salary projections are in line with that surprise. It shows that there is the potential to acquire impact SP on the trade market,
Yes, good catch! It would take a commitment from Pirates Ownership and probably collections on street corners of Pittsburgh to commit to pay anyone $20 mil a year. Reynolds averaged over 4 fWAR/year and it took about 2 years of hand wringing for the Pirates to "COMMIT" $106 mil for 8 years - an average of $13.25/year. $20 mil/year for the Pirates is like going to outer space!
Our Rotation to start 2024 will be Mitch Keller, Jared Jones, Andre Jackson, and Quinn Priester. From there it's possibly Bailey Falter, Luis Ortiz, Roansy Contreras, Carmen Mlodzinski and others for a BP Start or maybe one of these guys steps up in ST. From there we are looking at BRU and Burrows in late May early June. In 2025 we will have a VG Rotation to start the season.
Lack of commitment, imo, is the fundamental issue with this franchise. It shows up a lot with payroll, but that's not all of it. There's the willingness to stick for long periods of time with guys who just can't play in the majors. Josh VanMeter, Michael Chavis, Miguel Perez and countless others showed there was no level of awfulness that was unacceptable to the Pirates. There was, not just hanging onto, but regularly playing the carcasses of Gregory Polanco and Yoshi Tsutsugo in the hopes that they'd have a good game and some meth-addled GM would trade for them. There's the endless habit of settling for the guy nobody else wants, like Hedges and Santana last year. (A big negative marker for me will come if they "upgrade" from a very old Santana to an even older Santana. Go to baseballsavant.com and compare his batted ball metrics from 2023 to 2022 if you want a real shock.) There's the willingness to continue employing the failure known as Andy Haines.
What I absolutely don't see with this franchise, and haven't for many years, is a mindset that winning is the priority. To them, it's just something that'd be nice if it happened. Nobody with that mindset wins in pro sports.
All of this and being highly risk averse. Whether it's making a long-term commitment to a FA because of the risk the contract might end up looking bad, or trading prospects because of the risk they might turn into something later, or extending a pitcher beyond 1-2 years because of the injury risk, we just won't take on much risk.
Huntington made one move I considered risky, the Archer deal. With the way that turned out, Cherington is probably even less likely to take a similar risk.
It's definitely an overriding priority with them to ensure the payroll is easily within Nutting's very limited parameters at all times. No future risks.
VanMeter was very frustrating and a clear sign the Pirates almost wanted to lose. Polanco and even Tsutsogo at least had signs of a high ceiling. The Pirates just hung on to them too long.
I don't feel Hedges and Santana were the usual leftover signings. I think the Pirates hand-picked those guys (probably advised by their sabermetric team) and paid a little extra to sign them. There were plenty of catchers out there at the time which made the Hedges signing a little baffling.
Hope that isn't our rotation out of ST! If it is, it's business even worse than usual for Bob.....kick the can down the road for another year. I would consider a Jackson/Priester piggyback arrangement that could get us into the back of the bullpen every 5th day. And Falter deserves a rotation spot. That leaves 2 holes to fill.
Don't like Jared Jones? FG had him as our No. 11 heading into 2023 and he had solid performances at AA and AAA even though he pitched 4 months of the season as a 21 year old. Keller, Jones Falter, and Jackson would be a nice 4 with Priester as 50% of No.5. I just think we have enough in house rather than trying to find a SP for $10 mil or less.
I thought FG did very well in picking Peguero 6th, Chandler 8th, Triolo 9th, Jones 11th, Harrington 13th, and downgrading Gonzales to 23rd after having him 6th going into 2022. They had Solometo a respectable 20th, but he outdid that.
Jones did not have solid results at AAA in 12 starts. Gave up lots of hits and walks..5.63 era. Just turned 22, he needs another year at AAA. Chandler could be the one to watch, may be coming into his own in '24.
Why do I have a bad feeling the Pirates will announce a Noah Syndergaard one year deal for 8 million and hope for a bounce back. The pitching market seems robust and I’m getting a little worried the Pirates will end up with much less than we were hoping for
if you want a good predictor of what starting pitcher we´ll sign, look toward the cheapest guy who threw the most innings in 2023
only 88.2 innings in 2023 but a lot of reruns against the reds when the announcer reminds us that that ball had a family
I was very happy to see Suarez leave Cincy a few years back. A very strong defensive 3B, he seems to be able to play every day - 94.7% of the total games available in the past 8 years, and his 3.2 fWAR in 2023 was heavily weighted by his defensive play at 3B. The D plus the ability to answer the bell almost every day are well worth his $11 mil salary - the D'backs will also have a Club Option available to them for 2025.
I just hate it that the Yankees, Dodgers, and Braves pretty much get what they want. I want Montgomery! What would it take to keep the Yankees from signing him? Break the bank! Be bold! Sign him. Snell too.
The Braves developed almost all of their good/great players OR used their developed prospects to trade for players like Murphy and Olson.
Not that I disagree with your premise. Spend some freaking money.
Our realistic chance at acquiring a player others want is via a trade using our prospect (or recently graduated prospects) capital. For example, Davis, Jones, and a low-A lottery ticket like Blanco or De Los Santos for Cease (which is rated as a fair trade by Baseball Trade Values). I don't know that I would do that trade, but that's how we can compete with teams like the Dodgers who are interested in Cease.
I seems as if it will take at least a commitment of 5 years and $100+ mil. He's entering his age 31 season, and is coming off a year where he was a World Series hero after being traded to Texas from St Louis during the 2023 season. The Yankees drafted him originally, they need a SP or two, and they have the bucks to outbid anyone. Texas may want to keep him to go along with the SP's they have like Eovaldi, or SP's they will be getting back from injury such as Jacob DeGrom.
I recall being surprised (and annoyed) that the Cardinals could acquire Montgomery for Badler, and now 1.5 years later the salary projections are in line with that surprise. It shows that there is the potential to acquire impact SP on the trade market,
MLB Trade Rumors predicted Montgomery for 6 years $150 million. That seems like a lot for a 31 year old that has yet to make an all-star team.
Bob Nutting in Jim Mora voice:
“Commitment?? COMMITMENT??!!”
Yes, good catch! It would take a commitment from Pirates Ownership and probably collections on street corners of Pittsburgh to commit to pay anyone $20 mil a year. Reynolds averaged over 4 fWAR/year and it took about 2 years of hand wringing for the Pirates to "COMMIT" $106 mil for 8 years - an average of $13.25/year. $20 mil/year for the Pirates is like going to outer space!
Our Rotation to start 2024 will be Mitch Keller, Jared Jones, Andre Jackson, and Quinn Priester. From there it's possibly Bailey Falter, Luis Ortiz, Roansy Contreras, Carmen Mlodzinski and others for a BP Start or maybe one of these guys steps up in ST. From there we are looking at BRU and Burrows in late May early June. In 2025 we will have a VG Rotation to start the season.
Lack of commitment, imo, is the fundamental issue with this franchise. It shows up a lot with payroll, but that's not all of it. There's the willingness to stick for long periods of time with guys who just can't play in the majors. Josh VanMeter, Michael Chavis, Miguel Perez and countless others showed there was no level of awfulness that was unacceptable to the Pirates. There was, not just hanging onto, but regularly playing the carcasses of Gregory Polanco and Yoshi Tsutsugo in the hopes that they'd have a good game and some meth-addled GM would trade for them. There's the endless habit of settling for the guy nobody else wants, like Hedges and Santana last year. (A big negative marker for me will come if they "upgrade" from a very old Santana to an even older Santana. Go to baseballsavant.com and compare his batted ball metrics from 2023 to 2022 if you want a real shock.) There's the willingness to continue employing the failure known as Andy Haines.
What I absolutely don't see with this franchise, and haven't for many years, is a mindset that winning is the priority. To them, it's just something that'd be nice if it happened. Nobody with that mindset wins in pro sports.
All of this and being highly risk averse. Whether it's making a long-term commitment to a FA because of the risk the contract might end up looking bad, or trading prospects because of the risk they might turn into something later, or extending a pitcher beyond 1-2 years because of the injury risk, we just won't take on much risk.
Huntington made one move I considered risky, the Archer deal. With the way that turned out, Cherington is probably even less likely to take a similar risk.
It's definitely an overriding priority with them to ensure the payroll is easily within Nutting's very limited parameters at all times. No future risks.
VanMeter was very frustrating and a clear sign the Pirates almost wanted to lose. Polanco and even Tsutsogo at least had signs of a high ceiling. The Pirates just hung on to them too long.
I don't feel Hedges and Santana were the usual leftover signings. I think the Pirates hand-picked those guys (probably advised by their sabermetric team) and paid a little extra to sign them. There were plenty of catchers out there at the time which made the Hedges signing a little baffling.
Hope that isn't our rotation out of ST! If it is, it's business even worse than usual for Bob.....kick the can down the road for another year. I would consider a Jackson/Priester piggyback arrangement that could get us into the back of the bullpen every 5th day. And Falter deserves a rotation spot. That leaves 2 holes to fill.
Don't like Jared Jones? FG had him as our No. 11 heading into 2023 and he had solid performances at AA and AAA even though he pitched 4 months of the season as a 21 year old. Keller, Jones Falter, and Jackson would be a nice 4 with Priester as 50% of No.5. I just think we have enough in house rather than trying to find a SP for $10 mil or less.
I thought FG did very well in picking Peguero 6th, Chandler 8th, Triolo 9th, Jones 11th, Harrington 13th, and downgrading Gonzales to 23rd after having him 6th going into 2022. They had Solometo a respectable 20th, but he outdid that.
That would be a terrible top 4. Falter and Jackson are quad A players. And Jones will likely be in Indy to start the year.
Jones did not have solid results at AAA in 12 starts. Gave up lots of hits and walks..5.63 era. Just turned 22, he needs another year at AAA. Chandler could be the one to watch, may be coming into his own in '24.