I still think if Jones has another strong showing, I'd pencil him in for the starting rotation. He can always be sent back down, but he has earned a chance to begin the season on the big club.
My rotation would look something like 1) Keller 2) Pérez 3) Jones
I’ve been wrong plenty in my life, but when it comes to the Pirates and super 2: that’s one of the safest bets you can make. From a talent standpoint, making him super 2 will cost them millions potentially. Likewise that same talent might make it impossible for them to send him down. I just don’t see them altering how they do things.
Reynolds wasn’t all that highly touted as a prospect. And I’m not sure how high they were on Walker, trading for Iwamura to block him, and he was from a prior regime. He didn’t appear on Baseball America’s top 100 list. So I’m not sure that’s an apples to apples comparison.
I’d argue my personal opinion of Jones is irrelevant. I’m relying on publications who evaluate these prospects. And the Pirates have a history of service time manipulation with similarly pedigreed prospects to Jones. I personally could care less about service time manipulation. If they had spent to competently fill the rotation the need to worry about the year of control/super 2 status is irrelevant.
I agree with what you're saying, it doesn't fit their MO. If he keeps preforming like he has it'll prove the FO is full of it, if he begins the season in Indy.
I think the approach the FO took this offseason has proven that a lot of what they are saying is empty words. Hence my skepticism he’s actually in the running.
German probably has more upside, but of course there is the huge IF he can stay sober and really has learned from (and is remorseful about) his past domestic violence. I believe in second chances and it sounds like we did our due diligence and there will be zero tolerance.
But, we could have had both and I'd prefer Lorenzen over Anderson and Lauer, though I am somewhat intrigued by Lauer and am willing to give Anderson the benefit of the doubt as long as he's on a short leash.
Yeah I think you are right there is more upside with German. If we could have had German, Lorenzen and lauer instead of Gonzales I would have preferred that.
Gonzales seems like a bargain that Ben just couldn't pass up. But like any bargain we run the risk of ending up wishing we had paid for what we really wanted/needed.
Gonzalez is an acceptable gamble for a 5th starter. The problem is that the Pirates need him to be their 3rd starter... i.e. the problem is not Gonzalez... it is the lack of 2 other starters better than he is.
I actually think we’re in Connie Mack territory. Mack once said his ideal team would play well early to get attendance up, then tank so he wouldn’t have to give the players raises.
I think BC is intentionally aiming at mediocrity as a ceiling, because if they start winning there’ll be pressure to spend money to add. Attendance isn’t a factor; that’s not where Nuttin makes his money. Ben just wants 75 wins, 80 max, so expectations won’t get raised.
Yeah I think he was available at bargain so early too. It just played out in that way. I wanted Lorenzen all off-season, but I thought it would take $10M. So it stinks he signed for $4.5M somewhere else.
He should be given 3-4 starts in Indy and if those go well, then he should be up. That saves us a year of control while also giving him the opportunity to be Super Two which could be worth millions to him--it's a good compromise. If he struggles in Indy, well there's Lauer and German.
With such a young team, I think there is value is saying 'this guy played his way onto the major league team' with a near perfect spring. Once he struggles, really easy to spend 3 starts in Indy 'working on his command' or something.
i think this is the most overlooked part of the whole service time debates. it is much more likely that Jones struggles at some point and could benefit from a AAA reset than him making the OD rotation and dominating the entire year (and if he does that, you get a pick!)
Marco was just throwing BP, absolutely nothing on his FB, making his change useless. He's going to be in the rotation due to no other options.
I'm rooting really hard for Priester, seems like a really good guy. That said, he can't get MLB hitters out...It almost looks like he's aiming that sinker, and you can see it really well coming out of his hand. I don't see a scenario where he has success right now. At this point in time, they have to give one of the final spots to Jones. The other spot is probably down to Ortiz and Falter. Hopefully Skenes checks the boxes and is up sooner than later.
There's some numbers from yesterday's game that still have me hopeful, along with how he showed after the first 4-5 hitters. My biggest fear with Q is him hanging his brutal FF.
He only threw 6, but it's the only offering that pairs with his curve. Also, his slider looks more like a cutter. He's basically become a sinker, slider guy. I just can't see his stuff getting MLB hitters out...they're just too damn good.
Savant says 6, currently, but I'd venture to guess it was 10. And of the 4 mislabeled, one went for a 108.4 MPH single. Pitch shape and whether a pitch was a sinker or fastball aside, command is going to be his biggest bugaboo (as is clearly biggest issue with most of their current MLB options). At least per some Stuff+ models, his stuff grades out average or better, except the FF. Which is bad. And for some reason, they consistently have him throwing it up in the zone.
All that said again, yesterday's appearance didn't go well in large part cause he couldn't find the zone at all with the first few batters and put himself in a huge hole.
I'll add I'm a little worried in that the sinker isn't showing similar sink as it did in its abbreviated use last year, but it's trending in the right direction. His FF lives in the bad zone. Unless he decides to start pumping 97-98 with it, it needs to just be a show-me pitch, and especially not used top of the zone where he's been throwing it.
Rooting for Honeywell…went to the game last night and got to see some fan interaction from the bullpen, dude is a riot! I honestly didn’t even know who he was bc some of the guys don’t have names on their jerseys. He hardly warmed up, came in and got two quick out to end the fifth.
Searching for opportunities to find something positive about last night's debacle, and the top exit velo's you posted are good enough to use as a segue out of that beating. Cruz, Suwinski, Reynolds, but missing Hayes - that's OK, I'll settle for 3 of the 4 guys we will be depending upon to carry this team through the first 30 games.
A night game away against the Yankees followed by a night game away against the Bluejays should be just the shock therapy needed to prep for the season opener.
Not wishing anything bad on Yamamoto, but what if the slight difference in the size of the baseball from mlb to Japan has a huge difference on his stuff. If it does, he might become the highest paid backend starter in the history of the sport.
Kiley had an interesting article on Yamamoto's struggles in spring training where he provided his own insights and those of a scout, and their conclusion was that the struggles were nothing more than SSS bad luck--the pitch quality was there. And in today's game it was an overall slugfest, so maybe something to do with the conditions. But it will be interesting to watch how this plays out. Some drama in Dodger-land right now.
I think everyone on here is focusing too much on the younger guys being in the rotation and sleeping on Lauer/German.
I wonder if those two will be ready right away based on later signings? Apart from my personal hope that german never takes the field
Lauer would be ready sooner than German? It also doesn’t appear that they’ll need a 5th starter right away, glancing at the schedule.
I still think if Jones has another strong showing, I'd pencil him in for the starting rotation. He can always be sent back down, but he has earned a chance to begin the season on the big club.
My rotation would look something like 1) Keller 2) Pérez 3) Jones
4) still open 5) Gonzales
I’ve been wrong plenty in my life, but when it comes to the Pirates and super 2: that’s one of the safest bets you can make. From a talent standpoint, making him super 2 will cost them millions potentially. Likewise that same talent might make it impossible for them to send him down. I just don’t see them altering how they do things.
You guys are ridiculous with this shit. Imagining boogeymen where they don't exist.
There's no rational argument behind Jared Jones being any more talented than Bryan Reynolds or Neil Walker, both of whom were Super 2.
You'll point to O'neil Cruz, when the objective reality is that he was the worst player on the Indy roster for the first 6 weeks of the season.
You'll even somehow try to tie Super 2 to Hank Davis, who nearly set a record for least minor league experience before promotion.
You're now using spring training ERA - spring training ERA!! - to craft your latest conspiracy theory.
Plenty to be pissed about, fellas, without contriving anything else.
Reynolds wasn’t all that highly touted as a prospect. And I’m not sure how high they were on Walker, trading for Iwamura to block him, and he was from a prior regime. He didn’t appear on Baseball America’s top 100 list. So I’m not sure that’s an apples to apples comparison.
You're exaggerating your personal opinion of Jared Jones.
I’d argue my personal opinion of Jones is irrelevant. I’m relying on publications who evaluate these prospects. And the Pirates have a history of service time manipulation with similarly pedigreed prospects to Jones. I personally could care less about service time manipulation. If they had spent to competently fill the rotation the need to worry about the year of control/super 2 status is irrelevant.
I agree with what you're saying, it doesn't fit their MO. If he keeps preforming like he has it'll prove the FO is full of it, if he begins the season in Indy.
I think the approach the FO took this offseason has proven that a lot of what they are saying is empty words. Hence my skepticism he’s actually in the running.
Well good thing we didnt sign those japanese guys! Would hate to have them on our team based on how the early season is going! (/s)
Lorenzen signed for 1/4.5, couldve been very doable
That’s crazy, they signed German over Lorenzen? I don’t get it, $4.5M is a deal and he is an idiot.
German probably has more upside, but of course there is the huge IF he can stay sober and really has learned from (and is remorseful about) his past domestic violence. I believe in second chances and it sounds like we did our due diligence and there will be zero tolerance.
But, we could have had both and I'd prefer Lorenzen over Anderson and Lauer, though I am somewhat intrigued by Lauer and am willing to give Anderson the benefit of the doubt as long as he's on a short leash.
A little strange that Lauer is not mentioned in Transactions or NRI's on pirates mlb site.....
Yeah I think you are right there is more upside with German. If we could have had German, Lorenzen and lauer instead of Gonzales I would have preferred that.
Gonzales seems like a bargain that Ben just couldn't pass up. But like any bargain we run the risk of ending up wishing we had paid for what we really wanted/needed.
Gonzalez is an acceptable gamble for a 5th starter. The problem is that the Pirates need him to be their 3rd starter... i.e. the problem is not Gonzalez... it is the lack of 2 other starters better than he is.
I don't see it that way...
They have Keller and 4 5th starters
Ben shows a tendency of trying to be clever rather than good.
I actually think we’re in Connie Mack territory. Mack once said his ideal team would play well early to get attendance up, then tank so he wouldn’t have to give the players raises.
I think BC is intentionally aiming at mediocrity as a ceiling, because if they start winning there’ll be pressure to spend money to add. Attendance isn’t a factor; that’s not where Nuttin makes his money. Ben just wants 75 wins, 80 max, so expectations won’t get raised.
Yeah I think he was available at bargain so early too. It just played out in that way. I wanted Lorenzen all off-season, but I thought it would take $10M. So it stinks he signed for $4.5M somewhere else.
I meant Lorenzen isn’t an idiot. Haha
The odds on Jared Jones being in the rotation by the end of April went up yesterday.
He should be given 3-4 starts in Indy and if those go well, then he should be up. That saves us a year of control while also giving him the opportunity to be Super Two which could be worth millions to him--it's a good compromise. If he struggles in Indy, well there's Lauer and German.
With such a young team, I think there is value is saying 'this guy played his way onto the major league team' with a near perfect spring. Once he struggles, really easy to spend 3 starts in Indy 'working on his command' or something.
i think this is the most overlooked part of the whole service time debates. it is much more likely that Jones struggles at some point and could benefit from a AAA reset than him making the OD rotation and dominating the entire year (and if he does that, you get a pick!)
Agree 100%. Hell, there's a decent chance that both Jones and German are in the rotation by the end of April. The best rotation might be:
Keller
Perez
German
Jones
Ortiz/Priester
Marco was just throwing BP, absolutely nothing on his FB, making his change useless. He's going to be in the rotation due to no other options.
I'm rooting really hard for Priester, seems like a really good guy. That said, he can't get MLB hitters out...It almost looks like he's aiming that sinker, and you can see it really well coming out of his hand. I don't see a scenario where he has success right now. At this point in time, they have to give one of the final spots to Jones. The other spot is probably down to Ortiz and Falter. Hopefully Skenes checks the boxes and is up sooner than later.
I’d imagine one of the 5 will be German once he’s stretched out.
There's some numbers from yesterday's game that still have me hopeful, along with how he showed after the first 4-5 hitters. My biggest fear with Q is him hanging his brutal FF.
He only threw 6, but it's the only offering that pairs with his curve. Also, his slider looks more like a cutter. He's basically become a sinker, slider guy. I just can't see his stuff getting MLB hitters out...they're just too damn good.
Neil Walker had a good comp: Derrick Lowe. Sinker slider. 220 inning 3-4 starter.
Savant says 6, currently, but I'd venture to guess it was 10. And of the 4 mislabeled, one went for a 108.4 MPH single. Pitch shape and whether a pitch was a sinker or fastball aside, command is going to be his biggest bugaboo (as is clearly biggest issue with most of their current MLB options). At least per some Stuff+ models, his stuff grades out average or better, except the FF. Which is bad. And for some reason, they consistently have him throwing it up in the zone.
All that said again, yesterday's appearance didn't go well in large part cause he couldn't find the zone at all with the first few batters and put himself in a huge hole.
I'll add I'm a little worried in that the sinker isn't showing similar sink as it did in its abbreviated use last year, but it's trending in the right direction. His FF lives in the bad zone. Unless he decides to start pumping 97-98 with it, it needs to just be a show-me pitch, and especially not used top of the zone where he's been throwing it.
Maybe Marco needs more time coming off his injury from last year. Put him in extended ST, then a rehab assignment with Indy.
Rooting for Honeywell…went to the game last night and got to see some fan interaction from the bullpen, dude is a riot! I honestly didn’t even know who he was bc some of the guys don’t have names on their jerseys. He hardly warmed up, came in and got two quick out to end the fifth.
Searching for opportunities to find something positive about last night's debacle, and the top exit velo's you posted are good enough to use as a segue out of that beating. Cruz, Suwinski, Reynolds, but missing Hayes - that's OK, I'll settle for 3 of the 4 guys we will be depending upon to carry this team through the first 30 games.
A night game away against the Yankees followed by a night game away against the Bluejays should be just the shock therapy needed to prep for the season opener.
first 30 games?
Yeah, what happens after 30 games? Stargell is reincarnated to help ahhhtt?
Other than the distance of the HRs, Gonzales didn't do any worse than Yamamoto, and that was in a game that counts ;)
Not wishing anything bad on Yamamoto, but what if the slight difference in the size of the baseball from mlb to Japan has a huge difference on his stuff. If it does, he might become the highest paid backend starter in the history of the sport.
The scouting reports made him sound so interesting that I want to see that pitcher, and I'd be disappointed if he can't make the transition.
The only pitch I could see it making a real difference is the splitter almost fork ball he throws.
Kiley had an interesting article on Yamamoto's struggles in spring training where he provided his own insights and those of a scout, and their conclusion was that the struggles were nothing more than SSS bad luck--the pitch quality was there. And in today's game it was an overall slugfest, so maybe something to do with the conditions. But it will be interesting to watch how this plays out. Some drama in Dodger-land right now.
It was an indoor domed stadium, so weather conditions would not apply.
At least they only have a billion dollars invested in the drama lol.
time to put the Japanese in their place...again. USA USA USA
A spring training game is never a debacle. Unless someone gets hurt.
Got that right…You sure got that right!
I was torn between debacle and sound thrashing.