Ashcraft looked good. Averaged 96.7 on his heater, hit 99 but only threw it 26% of the time. Leaned heavily on his slider. Only 1 k, but got squeezed on at least one. He looks every bit of being MLB ready.
I do not think anyone who has commented really thinks that changing hitting coaches or even the Manager would bring about major changes. We are what we have and when any of the key players is singing off key we do not have enough talent in the lineup to pick that player up. They are playing a different brand of baseball for Don Kelly, but we still need help now and in the future.
I like some of the kids coming through the minors and think they will make valid contributions for the Pirates at the MLB level. The first that I see drafted by this GM is going to be Termarr Johnson and I am hoping that Jack Brannigan comes at the same time. They were the MI at A+, now in AA, and I expect they will be together at AAA at some point this year. Siani or Bowen could make a play for LF, and we need to give Malcom Nunez some time in MLB as our RH hitting First Baseman. That's in-house, but the Pirates may need to find a strong MOTO hitter in trade this year.
MOTO hitters run 25-35 mill. On the cheap side they are 18-22 mill. So that isn’t happening. What will is probably Mitch Keller plus for a young AAA hitter. We aren’t getting no 25-30 Hr guy. Cost way to much and we are too far away( in talent) for a good MOTO.
That’s why I love the trade deadline bidding war. Teams overpay for pitching and Keller is cost controlled and effective. Either we get a MOTO guy or Keller stays a buc. Time to use the system instead of just being a feeder. No prospects except as secondary guys.
Mitch Keller is where we need to be - SP's like him are worth $25 - $30 mil and there are 3 or 4 contenders who would love to have him and the relatively inexpensive contract he signed with the Pirates.
Got to disagree with you on this Mel. 4.50 era and 1.4 something WHIP are not 30 million dollar guys. You might find a few but not the norm. Keller is a good #3 pitcher. Sometimes at #2 for a month. He is being paid for a number 3 because he is a number 3 SP
I definitely didn't expect major changes in results from a new manager. Mostly because I don't believe there's a big difference in terms of wins and losses between the worst and best managers in baseball. We also don't really know how much our manager is responsible for the decisions that are being made. There's a lot of speculation that Ben is the one calling the shots on most things.
I did have some hope that a change in hitting coach could positively change things, but that those changes would be more felt in the lower levels of the minors and with new players being brought in. Idk how reasonable it is to expect a player that has been in the org for years being taught one thing to change on a dime and have immediate success if Hague is now teaching them something else.
Regarding the names you listed, Termarr is probably the only real prospect of the bunch and not a very exciting one in my opinion. I don't see anybody thinking he has more potential than to be more than an above average starter, which, would still be more than welcome. But, these guys like Brannigan, Siani, Bowen, Nunez can barely even be considered prospects. In all likelihood, these are the kind of guys that turn into the Diego Castillos, Baes and Triollos of the world if they even make it to the show.
Brannigan, Siani, Bowen, Nunez are all right at that point where they go up or do not and become aging AAA veterans. Of that 4 I favor Brannigan and Nunez to move up. If we make a trade for a MOTO Hitter, it will probably be a LH hitting outfielder with more power potential than Siani/Bowen.
I'm not giving up on Termarr being just above average regular. I think he is finding the approach that fits him, keeping his walk rate high, strikeout rate low, while finding the pitches he can drive. He probably won't be a superstar but could become a top 10 player at his position, occasionally an allstar. He's still really young and if he starts getting to more consistent game power with the approach he's had through May, he'll be back in the top 50 overall prospects by years end.
Sounds like you are describing Adam Frazier. I think 15 career bWAR (Frazier) is an above average regular. I would put my hope in Termarr in that range.
Still only in his age 21 season (Jun 11) and doing well at AA. A .785 OPS with 24 BB/29 K about 13.9%/16.8% with 11 EBH including 5 HR's. It's about time the Pirates start to recognize players who have stats like that - high percentages of Walks and low percentages of Strikeouts. Being a leadoff LH hitter also fits very well with our layout at PNC.
I still think they should try for Mauricio but they probably missed their window for that. He's crushing triple A in his first week back after his injury.
Jeff McNeil, 33, will be in the last year of his contract in 2026, and Mauricio is going to step into getting a lot of MLB reps this year and become the primary 2B in 2026 with McNeil being the backup. He and Lindor will make a helluva MI!
That's why I put probably missed their window (to get him). The Mets still have a lot of options with only 3 positions with questions 2nd, 3rd, and center field for the near future. Baty, Vientos, Acuna, Mauricio, and Williams with McNeil also available in '27 on a club option if he keeps his OPS up near .775, he's been killed on babip so far this year.
I think he's going to really crush RHPing, lefties not so much. I'd give him a try at short, but if he ends up at 3rd or an outfield corner, I wouldn't mind.
In looking at team stats, some depressing if not surprising results:
Last in ISO and SLG.
Last in Fangraphs' BsR which seems a bit surprising given that we have the 6th most SBs.
Second to last in HRs, wOBA, wRC+, and OPS+.
Despite being 8th worst in OBP, we've left the second most men on base (to Boston, but of course they're putting a lot more men on base) while also hitting into the 2nd most DPs.
Of course many of these stats are related but any way you slice it, we have one of the two worst offenses in baseball. So yes, it's (past) time for Cherington to go. The sooner the better as a new GM will need to get to know the organization before making significant moves.
It’s staggering. They get no one on base, and the few they get on are either stranded or thrown out. As WTM says below the core problem is lack of power.
AB posted the #s not long ago. Apart from SBs, this team does a horrible job on the bases. You wonder whether these guys have had any coaching at all. I’ve said before, they don’t do anywhere near the # of drills they used to do in spring training. Shelton WAS part of the problem.
The LOB thing is probably in part a product of the extreme lack of power. The Cheringtons hardly ever drive the ball. IF hits don’t drive in runners from 1st or 2nd.
There seem to be 2 specific problems: the contact play on every infield hit from 3B has led to 6 or 7 outs at home and getting from 1st to 3rd. A lot of this is on the 3B coach who is just not giving clear instructions to the runners. We have seen this often with guys looking over their shoulders, running through stop signs, and otherwise making their own decisions on the bases beyond 1B. Rabelo and the contact play (which I am sure is the product of some analytic abomination in the front office) need to go. I think that would solve many of their problems. They are very good at stealing bases (though a lot of this is having the league's premier base-stealer on the team in Cruz).
What’s so stunning is that there’s no area of the game that the people running this clown show are any good at. (And, no, don’t tell me about pitching. Way too much to say there for one comment.). The few things that go right are situations where a few individual players’ talents just can’t be restrained. Anything else is just complete doggy-doo.
They are not good at developing pitchers. This is the biggest myth surrounding this organization right now. Look at their bullpen. They now have 1 pitcher from their system in the bullpen and 2 in the rotation, and one of those 2 (Keller) predates the Cherington era. They have added exactly 2 pitchers to their major-league staff in 5+ years from their "great pitcher development." Now, I get that Jones is hurt and that they traded Ortiz, but even with Jones and Ortiz, that makes 4 in 5+ years. That is no where near acceptable in a league where teams carry 13 pitchers on their roster.
They didn't even sign Ortiz. That was Huntington. He also drafted Burrows and Ashcraft. Basically, this FO made a handful of very good draft picks and that's it. The FCL team has by far the worst pitching in its league and Bradenton's isn't very good, either. Despite the team's great record, Greensboro's staff is below average in their league. There's no magic touch with pitching here, not in coaching, scouting or development. It just hasn't been the complete, historical-level shit show that the hitting has been.
If there is a magic touch, it is Strom at the major-league level. TBH, their bullpen has overperformed markedly so far (yes... it should be much worse than it looks), and Heaney, Falter, and Keller are setting up for career years.
Here's some of the prep bats I'd target in order of preference. Taitn Gray, Josiah Hartshorn, Jacob Parker, Diego Velazquez, and a sleeper Kenyon Sikkema (Sikkema might be a class of '26 but I think he reclassified to '25).
Jacob would also go to 2nd on this list if they take his brother JoJo with pick 6. I'd then want them to take Hartshorn in the 3rd round lol.
I would take him and Gray before pick 50. Both have legit power and very little swing and miss and are more athletic than their bodies look (Gray on the muscle side).
I think the Parker Brothers will be a package deal or Jacob head to school without a major over slot.
Tague Davis didn't get picked last year and he had a great year at Louisville (I think he dropped because he wanted to pitch and hit, it's why I dropped him from my want list last year).
Last night's game at Indy reminded me of a Pirate's game. Indy hitters score 2 runs on 11 baserunners. A starter goes 5 scoreless. 3 of the 4 one-inning relievers looked good while one did not. The Pirates did hang on to the game 2 to 1.
I hope the Pirates don't rush NIck Gonzalels or Endy Rodriguez to the majors until they get their stroke in triple A. Gonzales is hitting .056 and Endy is hitting .178.
I like the way DJ Stewart always give it 100% and I liked what I saw from him this spring, but man he is 10 for 92 which equates to a .109 average.
One little bit of good news — Reinold Navarro is starting in the FCL this AM, so he evidently wasn’t hurt much by taking a liner off the shin a week ago.
Probability of scoring with bases loaded and no outs, roughly 85% to 86%. Average number of runs scored in this situation, approximately 2.29. Pirates 0% and no runs
All so true but lets see how the offense got in that situation. E5 on routine ground ball, passed ball, 5 pitch walk with no swings, 6 pitch walk with 1 swing. They basically did nothing to start that failed "rally".
A sweep by the Pirates in the MiLB last night. Only 2 games - at AAA and at the FCL Level and both were low scoring affairs where Pirates Pitching carried the day.
At AAA Chen threw 5 scoreless with 4 K's, and Moreta pitched an inning with 2 K's. Cook, Yorke, and Peguero all had 2 hits. Rehabbing players NG was 1-4 with 2 K's, and Endy was 0-4 grounding out twice to 1B, and once apiece to 2B and SS. Kyle Nicolas "earned" a one inning Save but was not very effective - 2 hits, 2 BB's, 1 ER, but 3K's.
The FCL featured some future hopes with Rehabbing Carlson Reed 3 IP, 2H, 1BB, 1K. Levi Sterling came on for 3 IP, 4H, 2BB, 6K, and Cesar Aquino earned the save with a clean IP with 1K. Aquino was very strong for the DSL Gold last year with an 0.98 ERA in 46 IP with a mixture of Starts/Relief.
Ashcraft looked good. Averaged 96.7 on his heater, hit 99 but only threw it 26% of the time. Leaned heavily on his slider. Only 1 k, but got squeezed on at least one. He looks every bit of being MLB ready.
Endy with a 63 wRC+ so far in AAA, picking right up where he left off in the MLB.
I do not think anyone who has commented really thinks that changing hitting coaches or even the Manager would bring about major changes. We are what we have and when any of the key players is singing off key we do not have enough talent in the lineup to pick that player up. They are playing a different brand of baseball for Don Kelly, but we still need help now and in the future.
I like some of the kids coming through the minors and think they will make valid contributions for the Pirates at the MLB level. The first that I see drafted by this GM is going to be Termarr Johnson and I am hoping that Jack Brannigan comes at the same time. They were the MI at A+, now in AA, and I expect they will be together at AAA at some point this year. Siani or Bowen could make a play for LF, and we need to give Malcom Nunez some time in MLB as our RH hitting First Baseman. That's in-house, but the Pirates may need to find a strong MOTO hitter in trade this year.
MOTO hitters run 25-35 mill. On the cheap side they are 18-22 mill. So that isn’t happening. What will is probably Mitch Keller plus for a young AAA hitter. We aren’t getting no 25-30 Hr guy. Cost way to much and we are too far away( in talent) for a good MOTO.
That’s why I love the trade deadline bidding war. Teams overpay for pitching and Keller is cost controlled and effective. Either we get a MOTO guy or Keller stays a buc. Time to use the system instead of just being a feeder. No prospects except as secondary guys.
Tim, Just curious. What names do you think Keller brings back in a trade… again just curious
Mitch Keller is where we need to be - SP's like him are worth $25 - $30 mil and there are 3 or 4 contenders who would love to have him and the relatively inexpensive contract he signed with the Pirates.
Got to disagree with you on this Mel. 4.50 era and 1.4 something WHIP are not 30 million dollar guys. You might find a few but not the norm. Keller is a good #3 pitcher. Sometimes at #2 for a month. He is being paid for a number 3 because he is a number 3 SP
Mitch hasn’t had an era or fip exceed 4.2 in 4 years.
I definitely didn't expect major changes in results from a new manager. Mostly because I don't believe there's a big difference in terms of wins and losses between the worst and best managers in baseball. We also don't really know how much our manager is responsible for the decisions that are being made. There's a lot of speculation that Ben is the one calling the shots on most things.
I did have some hope that a change in hitting coach could positively change things, but that those changes would be more felt in the lower levels of the minors and with new players being brought in. Idk how reasonable it is to expect a player that has been in the org for years being taught one thing to change on a dime and have immediate success if Hague is now teaching them something else.
Regarding the names you listed, Termarr is probably the only real prospect of the bunch and not a very exciting one in my opinion. I don't see anybody thinking he has more potential than to be more than an above average starter, which, would still be more than welcome. But, these guys like Brannigan, Siani, Bowen, Nunez can barely even be considered prospects. In all likelihood, these are the kind of guys that turn into the Diego Castillos, Baes and Triollos of the world if they even make it to the show.
Brannigan, Siani, Bowen, Nunez are all right at that point where they go up or do not and become aging AAA veterans. Of that 4 I favor Brannigan and Nunez to move up. If we make a trade for a MOTO Hitter, it will probably be a LH hitting outfielder with more power potential than Siani/Bowen.
I'm not giving up on Termarr being just above average regular. I think he is finding the approach that fits him, keeping his walk rate high, strikeout rate low, while finding the pitches he can drive. He probably won't be a superstar but could become a top 10 player at his position, occasionally an allstar. He's still really young and if he starts getting to more consistent game power with the approach he's had through May, he'll be back in the top 50 overall prospects by years end.
Sounds like you are describing Adam Frazier. I think 15 career bWAR (Frazier) is an above average regular. I would put my hope in Termarr in that range.
I'm hoping for a bit more power for Termarr but a good comparison.
Still only in his age 21 season (Jun 11) and doing well at AA. A .785 OPS with 24 BB/29 K about 13.9%/16.8% with 11 EBH including 5 HR's. It's about time the Pirates start to recognize players who have stats like that - high percentages of Walks and low percentages of Strikeouts. Being a leadoff LH hitter also fits very well with our layout at PNC.
I still think they should try for Mauricio but they probably missed their window for that. He's crushing triple A in his first week back after his injury.
Jeff McNeil, 33, will be in the last year of his contract in 2026, and Mauricio is going to step into getting a lot of MLB reps this year and become the primary 2B in 2026 with McNeil being the backup. He and Lindor will make a helluva MI!
That's why I put probably missed their window (to get him). The Mets still have a lot of options with only 3 positions with questions 2nd, 3rd, and center field for the near future. Baty, Vientos, Acuna, Mauricio, and Williams with McNeil also available in '27 on a club option if he keeps his OPS up near .775, he's been killed on babip so far this year.
i've been hoping they'd trade for him for years now. sigh
I think he's going to really crush RHPing, lefties not so much. I'd give him a try at short, but if he ends up at 3rd or an outfield corner, I wouldn't mind.
In looking at team stats, some depressing if not surprising results:
Last in ISO and SLG.
Last in Fangraphs' BsR which seems a bit surprising given that we have the 6th most SBs.
Second to last in HRs, wOBA, wRC+, and OPS+.
Despite being 8th worst in OBP, we've left the second most men on base (to Boston, but of course they're putting a lot more men on base) while also hitting into the 2nd most DPs.
Of course many of these stats are related but any way you slice it, we have one of the two worst offenses in baseball. So yes, it's (past) time for Cherington to go. The sooner the better as a new GM will need to get to know the organization before making significant moves.
It’s staggering. They get no one on base, and the few they get on are either stranded or thrown out. As WTM says below the core problem is lack of power.
AB posted the #s not long ago. Apart from SBs, this team does a horrible job on the bases. You wonder whether these guys have had any coaching at all. I’ve said before, they don’t do anywhere near the # of drills they used to do in spring training. Shelton WAS part of the problem.
The LOB thing is probably in part a product of the extreme lack of power. The Cheringtons hardly ever drive the ball. IF hits don’t drive in runners from 1st or 2nd.
There seem to be 2 specific problems: the contact play on every infield hit from 3B has led to 6 or 7 outs at home and getting from 1st to 3rd. A lot of this is on the 3B coach who is just not giving clear instructions to the runners. We have seen this often with guys looking over their shoulders, running through stop signs, and otherwise making their own decisions on the bases beyond 1B. Rabelo and the contact play (which I am sure is the product of some analytic abomination in the front office) need to go. I think that would solve many of their problems. They are very good at stealing bases (though a lot of this is having the league's premier base-stealer on the team in Cruz).
What’s so stunning is that there’s no area of the game that the people running this clown show are any good at. (And, no, don’t tell me about pitching. Way too much to say there for one comment.). The few things that go right are situations where a few individual players’ talents just can’t be restrained. Anything else is just complete doggy-doo.
They are not good at developing pitchers. This is the biggest myth surrounding this organization right now. Look at their bullpen. They now have 1 pitcher from their system in the bullpen and 2 in the rotation, and one of those 2 (Keller) predates the Cherington era. They have added exactly 2 pitchers to their major-league staff in 5+ years from their "great pitcher development." Now, I get that Jones is hurt and that they traded Ortiz, but even with Jones and Ortiz, that makes 4 in 5+ years. That is no where near acceptable in a league where teams carry 13 pitchers on their roster.
They didn't even sign Ortiz. That was Huntington. He also drafted Burrows and Ashcraft. Basically, this FO made a handful of very good draft picks and that's it. The FCL team has by far the worst pitching in its league and Bradenton's isn't very good, either. Despite the team's great record, Greensboro's staff is below average in their league. There's no magic touch with pitching here, not in coaching, scouting or development. It just hasn't been the complete, historical-level shit show that the hitting has been.
If there is a magic touch, it is Strom at the major-league level. TBH, their bullpen has overperformed markedly so far (yes... it should be much worse than it looks), and Heaney, Falter, and Keller are setting up for career years.
I really hope they target prep power bats with their two second round picks that have plate discipline and don't have swing and miss issues.
The college class has guys with power but have swing and miss issues or will probably be gone by the time pick 50 comes along.
I really hope prep power bats with good contact and discipline had any chance of making it to the second round.
Only one is a shortstop in the group I listed below and he's probably a 3rd basemen. Most are stuck in a corner outfield or 1st base.
It's a really deep class on prep shortstops.
Here's some of the prep bats I'd target in order of preference. Taitn Gray, Josiah Hartshorn, Jacob Parker, Diego Velazquez, and a sleeper Kenyon Sikkema (Sikkema might be a class of '26 but I think he reclassified to '25).
Jacob would also go to 2nd on this list if they take his brother JoJo with pick 6. I'd then want them to take Hartshorn in the 3rd round lol.
There is no way that Hartshorn kid makes it to the 3rd round. Someone is going to jump on that power in the top 50 picks, even if he is limited to 1B.
I would take him and Gray before pick 50. Both have legit power and very little swing and miss and are more athletic than their bodies look (Gray on the muscle side).
I think the Parker Brothers will be a package deal or Jacob head to school without a major over slot.
Tague Davis didn't get picked last year and he had a great year at Louisville (I think he dropped because he wanted to pitch and hit, it's why I dropped him from my want list last year).
Last night's game at Indy reminded me of a Pirate's game. Indy hitters score 2 runs on 11 baserunners. A starter goes 5 scoreless. 3 of the 4 one-inning relievers looked good while one did not. The Pirates did hang on to the game 2 to 1.
I hope the Pirates don't rush NIck Gonzalels or Endy Rodriguez to the majors until they get their stroke in triple A. Gonzales is hitting .056 and Endy is hitting .178.
I like the way DJ Stewart always give it 100% and I liked what I saw from him this spring, but man he is 10 for 92 which equates to a .109 average.
One little bit of good news — Reinold Navarro is starting in the FCL this AM, so he evidently wasn’t hurt much by taking a liner off the shin a week ago.
Just K’d the side.
K’d the side in 3rd.
Braves’ P had a perfect game with two out in the 4th, then Ramirez singled and Florentino launched one.
Probability of scoring with bases loaded and no outs, roughly 85% to 86%. Average number of runs scored in this situation, approximately 2.29. Pirates 0% and no runs
All so true but lets see how the offense got in that situation. E5 on routine ground ball, passed ball, 5 pitch walk with no swings, 6 pitch walk with 1 swing. They basically did nothing to start that failed "rally".
The offense just stinks.
So they OVERperformed!
NOBLETIGER!
So what you're saying is BC's metrics are saying that they are way underperforming in this area and it will all even out eventually.....
Just “bad luck” lol
The Pirates offense is something special lol
Special needs.
I will write it again, we are lucky if we win one game on this trip. But now I’m gonna add that BC will not survive it.
A sweep by the Pirates in the MiLB last night. Only 2 games - at AAA and at the FCL Level and both were low scoring affairs where Pirates Pitching carried the day.
At AAA Chen threw 5 scoreless with 4 K's, and Moreta pitched an inning with 2 K's. Cook, Yorke, and Peguero all had 2 hits. Rehabbing players NG was 1-4 with 2 K's, and Endy was 0-4 grounding out twice to 1B, and once apiece to 2B and SS. Kyle Nicolas "earned" a one inning Save but was not very effective - 2 hits, 2 BB's, 1 ER, but 3K's.
The FCL featured some future hopes with Rehabbing Carlson Reed 3 IP, 2H, 1BB, 1K. Levi Sterling came on for 3 IP, 4H, 2BB, 6K, and Cesar Aquino earned the save with a clean IP with 1K. Aquino was very strong for the DSL Gold last year with an 0.98 ERA in 46 IP with a mixture of Starts/Relief.