91 Comments

Reds drop $8M on reliever Pagan. Hmmm I think they're serious about being playoff team. Meanwhile......

still crickets on Federal St.

Expand full comment

Severino off the board

Expand full comment

6.65 era nets a $13mil salary

we´ve got no play in this fellas

Expand full comment

Via ESPN, mention of gleyber being a trade target for us with possible salary of ~15m. Imo, the yanks would have to eat at least half of that realistically so im not sure i see the fit myself

Expand full comment

Why not just cycle through Triolo, Peguero, Bae, Nick Gonzo at 2b and see what we've got? Gleyber's an upgrade but only for a season.

Expand full comment

Probably a better use of dollars to put that money towards the rotation and go with this strategy, was just curious since espn put it out there

Expand full comment

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - #April Rotation - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Keller

*Hill

Priester

Ortiz / Contreras

Jackson / Falter

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - #June Rotation - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Keller

Hill

Priester / Ortiz / Contreras

Skenes

Harrington / Jones

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - #August Rotation - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Skenes

Wolf

Priester / Ortiz / Contreras

Harrington / Jones

Brubaker / Burrows

Expand full comment

Where does keller run off to in august?

Expand full comment

Arizona in exchange for Andrew Jones Jr

Expand full comment

There's a key word there that will prevent the Pirates from signing Fedde...

*a lot of MLB interest*

Expand full comment

*former first-round pick and top prospect* are words that make GMBC salivate though.

Expand full comment

Sounds like he's really changed his pitch arsenal. Need to get Oviedo to this facility Fedde went to as soon as he's healthy: https://archive.is/iE0r2

Expand full comment

I was a big fan of the DBacks signing Merril Kelley under similar circumstances.

Expand full comment

Very true. However, if there's half a dozen teams competing to sign him, that generally doesn't bode well for the Pirates.

Expand full comment

Erick Fedde looks mighty interesting. For major league teams, that is.

Expand full comment

Was just gonna say, if they ain’t gonna dip into FA here...

Expand full comment

To me, Bieber to cincy would be less scary than glasnow given that his K numbers are falling and how small that park plays

Expand full comment

I think the Reds may end up signing Bauer.

Expand full comment

Good, I dont want him near our team/clubhouse

Expand full comment

I'd take him but only if you had a quick out for minimal dollars. Sad that minimal dollars is around $10 million.

Expand full comment

I wish we would. 2-3 of Bauer, Fedde, Paxton, Montas. Wouldn't even be that $$$. Bank some wins early this season and then you're in a good spot around the trade deadline for once.

Expand full comment

I'd be happy with those first 3.

Bauer on a 4 year with club options to hedge themselves.

Year 1) $7 million with a $3 million buyout.

Year 2) $10 million with a $3 million buyout.

Year 3) $15 million with a $3 million buyout.

Year 4) $18 million.

Fedde a 1 year with a 2nd year club option.

Year 1) $8 million with a $2 million buyout.

Year 2) $12 million

Paxton a 1 year $10 million, maybe have a 2nd year option.

Expand full comment

To me, Nutting is the owner who makes the most sense to sign Bauer anyway. He's already universally disliked. Bauer will be cheap relative to the talent level. Just win, baby.

Expand full comment

As much as I didn't want Bauer, I've flipped. As long as the team leave themselves an option out, it should be a minimal risk. I wrote yesterday, it's a $10 million gamble with a potential $50 million bargain.

Expand full comment

He's hitting 100 now!

Expand full comment

I'd go Fedde, Paxton & Montas all on short term deals...if they're willing to bite.

Expand full comment

Pirates gonna have to deal with Chorizo and Queso for quite some time. And that's not even accounting for Misiorowski, Black, and Gasser. Or the 20 OF prospects they saw ascend to the majors last year and all see some level of success. One of the reasons I'm sitting back thinking, "Idk if this new developmental team is exactly doing much better than the last. And Pirates don't exactly have a far superior farm system of prospects, as some would like to believe".

Expand full comment

No no BnP, clearly we are the only system with a thomas harrington level pitcher!

Expand full comment

To be fair, we do have the edge in pitching. But, seeing as how that's gone so far...

Expand full comment

The central all of a sudden is going from barren of competition to the reds shopping in the star rental SP market, the cubs ready to swing their checkbook around, the cards already putting ~40Ms into their rotation and the brewers as the only other team whos status for next year is somewhat questionable

Expand full comment

Which is funny, cause the Brewers being "in question" involves their manager left, pitching staff shorthanded, but they already have high end prospects on the cusp of the majors. No breaking it down or "rebuilding" to get to that point. Where the Reds are "What are we going to do with all these shortstops?", the Brewers have an outfield "problem".

Expand full comment

We have uhhh a big third tier second baseman problem

Expand full comment

lol @ "Glasnow topped 100 injuries".

Expand full comment

I thought he was going to say for his career.

Expand full comment

Glasbow

Expand full comment

Everyone is acting. The Pirates are waiting for the leftovers. Maybe we get the first pick again. Does it really matter? It's just a stupid game.

Expand full comment

Off topic. The Pirates are fucked! Big time! Nutting will NEVER pay up. However hope may be on the horizon. Mark Cuban is selling his share of the Mavericks supposedly to support his political ambitions. What if the real reason is he's finally ready to purchase the Pirates and spend lavishly. Just a pipedream

Expand full comment

I can't wait for Cuban to buy the Pirates, and then the extent of how much the payroll jumps is like $10M

Expand full comment

While youre right that I dont think that the payroll would jump nearly as much as the average yinzer thinks if cuban buys the team, a $10M increase is honestly a pretty large percentage of the payrolls weve been running out. Wouldnt fix all of our issues but if our baseline was just that much higher, I wouldnt hate it lol

Expand full comment

Wouldn't be terrible, while at same time I feel a lot of fans "expectations" would be that he increases payroll substantially like $80M lol

Expand full comment

I bet a Cuban type would run $120-$150M payrolls.

Expand full comment

I think the extent of "hope" we'd have if he were to buy the Pirates, would be that his initial purchase of the team would lead to a jump in fan's enthusiasm. Maybe a "bigger" name or two come to Pittsburgh, and maybe a couple trades are made that otherwise wouldn't have been, but I don't know if I'd believe their payroll would see a substantial increase early on. But the boost in fan's enthusiasm would boost revenue, and then Cuban would likely be more open to spending the extra cash flow as opposed to saving it for a rainy day and "future acquisitions".

Expand full comment

What I don't get is how Bob expects us to believe he's been saving for a rainy day all these years. $74M in 2019, $63M in 2020, $47M in 2021, $59M in 2022, $70M in 2023, $22M in guaranteed contracts + ~$16M in Arb for 2024 as it stands. Even if say $85M is like some operational baseline, there'd be like a $100M+ rainy day fund sitting there for say a 5 year, $22M per deal or something.

Expand full comment

Correct. Everyone seems to think that being a billionaire means your ATM receipt says: “balance: $10 billion” and that they just choose not to spend it.

Expand full comment

No owner puts their own money into the team. Spending on payroll is a % of revenue, and the Pirates are a low revenue team. While someone could spend more than Nutting, no one is spending “lavishly” as the Pirates simply don’t generate that sort of money and never will under the current system.

Expand full comment

I always go to Cot's and look at the Forbes estimated VALUE of each team - sort of like "if I needed to sell my house I wonder what I could ask?" The Pirates 2023 worth was $1.32 Billion which would put them around 23rd in MLB. Teams below them would be Mia, Oak, TB, KC, Cle, Cincy, and Mil. Most are the dogs of MLB, but Mia, TB, Cle, Cincy, and Mil have found ways to turn it around.

What was the Forbes Value in 2010? $289 Mil, dead last 30th. Since then they have been as high as 17th $1.25 Bil Forbes Value in 2017.

Expand full comment

Sure, these guys are getting richer on paper. From what I’ve read a focus of Nutting is to keep the teams debt low, which only enhances his value if he would ever choose to sell. But, that still doesn’t help generate much cash flow for payroll.

Expand full comment

Your mention of Oakland reminded of their impending move to Las Vegas and I started thinking well obviously the owner will put the taxpayers on the line for a stadium. My first thought was that's really unfair because Nevada is a large state land wise with a small population. Been to Vegas many times and know it's in Clark County but didn't realize out of Nevada's 3.1 million residents that 2.3 million of them reside in Clark County, lol.

Expand full comment

This is the key, and my response to this is:

1. We have to be as smart at identifying and developing talent as the Rays, Brewers, Guardians, etc. and that remains to be seen.

2. No reasonable Pirates fan expects us to spend like the Cubs, Dodgers, or Mets, but there is no excuse for not spending at levels the Brewers and Reds spend at.

I.e., we need to be better at developing from within _and_ we should be spending more. Being better at one can help offset the other but right now we don't seem to be doing enough in either category.

Expand full comment

Each of the small rev ballclubs that did well had a solid MLB Manager; the Pirates do not.

Developing from within - Last year, at the MLB Level, Liover Peguero and Jared Triolo proved that they are the best 2B/Utility players we have, with Ji-Hwan Bae a 2nd option for CF and a 3rd option for 2B. Right now, Peguero and Triolo should be working out in the off-season knowing that they are the guys we are going to depend upon going into ST and the regular season at 2B/Utility - it does no good to keep it a secret. It's management saying "we believe in you" - people who have never played the game cannot understand how important that "we believe in you" is to a ballplayer. That's how a team is built!

Sometimes it is tough to make that call, but it has to be done if you want people to respect the people making the decisions.

Expand full comment

Your premise is constantly being put forward by most MLB owners, but it is false narrative. They blame the system, but it's the one they put in place and continue to support. There is no rule prohibiting owners from doing whatever they want and unfortunately that also applies to teams that not only don't invest in their team but don't spend the revenue they take in.

Some owners, the Padres might be the most obvious recent example, use ownership money to sign players essentially betting that becoming a higher profile team will increase revenue. That's called business following the axiom that you have to spend money to make money. It has worked for the Padres at least on paper as they have gone from being a revenue payee to a payor based on their increased revenue income despite their being the fifth smallest market. It hasn't produced the type of winning they had hoped for probably because of how they have spent it, but they are making money from attendance and sponsorships largely because of their willingness to invest their own money in their product.

There is no reason Nutting or any other owner can't do the same thing but there is more risk involved and the system works for him the way it is. Why would he want to kill the proverbial goose that's giving him golden eggs with very little effort or risk on his part? Baseball is a business to owners like him and not the game fans expect it to be. Winning means higher profits, not the playoffs.

Other owners don't like it because it threatens their ability to continue to hide their income and do as they please while complaining about being too poor to build a competitive team. It's their story and they're going to stick to it. It's served them well, but it's really not true.

Expand full comment

The Padres are a case study in “what not to do.” They just had to take out a $50 million loan to cover payroll. Apparently, they asked for something like $90 million. Think about operating a business where you don’t have enough working capital to fund payroll...doesn’t sound like they’re on the best financial footing.

Expand full comment

Forgive me as I get lost in the economic issues, but isn’t one reason for that loan due to the collapse of their TV deal?

Expand full comment

That is one factor, and I’ve also heard that they were counting on playoff revenue which never materialized.

Expand full comment

And it didn’t work to boot. They won 6 more games us.

Expand full comment

It didn’t work in 2023, but it did in 2022 when they made the NLCS. They probably went overboard after 22, and I wonder how much of that was due to Seidler’s health.

Expand full comment

Fair enough, but one season where you made the NLCS isn’t worth threatening the long term prospects of your organization to where you’re looking at a major tear down. If they had won a World Series it would be different. To put it in perspective, Manfred has all but said that what they are doing is financially unsustainable. And no doubt Seidlers very unfortunate health situation might have played a role in all this.

Expand full comment

1.) They put the system in place:

Sure. The system does two things:

A.)allows the Yankees and Dodgers to collect massive revenues and retain all the best players.

B.) allows the little guys like Nutting a seat at the table and to be minimally profitable so long as they avoid large contracts.

2.) The Padres. And what happened to the Padres? They are brink of financial ruin and had to take out a $50 MM loan just to cover payroll. Soto and others will be traded this offseason as a major payroll paring is coming. That's what happens when you live beyond your means. There’s other problems with this example too. The San Diego metro area has a million more people than we do, average household income is far higher, and the San Diego metro area is ranked 17 in gross metro GDP, while we are ranked 28th. San Diego is a far superior market to us.

3.) You have to spend money to make money. Sure, if teams were actually dependent on gate revenue as the largest proportion of revenue. Now, with TV money, many teams are covering their payroll before they even sell a ticket. And the Pirates, with a low population metro area, are at a decided disadvantage. The Dodgers get $200 million from TV revenue. We get maybe $50? And that was before the RSN’s blew up. So the new figure is likely to be lower.

The most common sense thing would be to adopt a salary floor and salary cap. The big markets don’t want it because then they want to be able to hoard all the top talent. Nutting doesn’t want that because a floor threatens his profitably.

So two things can be true:

1.) we can’t afford to spend a ton in this market.

2.) despite number 1, Nutting should spend more.

Expand full comment

I can't imagine being pathetic as to spend this much time meekly carrying water for billionaires.

Expand full comment

Advocating for him to spend more and advocating for a salary cap and salary floor that would take away his guaranteed profitability is hardly carrying water. What I do carry water for: the fans of flyover country in small markets who consistently get screwed out all the best players by the wacky economic system we currently have.

Expand full comment

Is it possible that loan the Padres took out was do to the loss of revenue from Diamond Sports Group when they filed for bankruptcy and stopped paying everyone they had a broadcast contrast with. MLB took over their broadcast before the end of the 2023 season so the Padres lost revenue from that along with many other professional sports teams in the west.

Expand full comment

This is spot on and I was going to pen a response similar (not as complete- THANK YOU). I tend to drop out quickly of threads that just say CHEAP CHEAP CHEAP. More absolutely should be spent but rules are different. This overall thread talks of Forbes value but your comments on the realism of the Pittsburgh market is perfect. I saw an article a few years ago from a Yankee fan or writer basically saying Yankees should spent $500M(I forget the actual $) on salaries without batting an eye. Let that sink in if they and others spent.

I don't think tanking should be an every 6-7 year gameplan, but I do fall into those who believe what BC inherited (and I am assuming was in his interviews with Bob) was ripe for a full tank. So.. first part complete - pure tanking should be over. The real test is how pieces are added to build a real playoff team. I really thought 2024 might be the year but the SP situation has me pushing to 2025.

Expand full comment

Yes a lot of people don’t recognize the harsh reality of our market. They confuse the passion of the fan base with the ability to generate massive revenues.

Not a huge fan of the 5 year plans either. You can avoid those, IF you know when to retool button. We will see if they learned their lesson from last time.

Expand full comment

A bonus comment: This is not what people want to think about, but if MLB truly started from scratch (and did not have existing fan bases) with their franchise locations, IMO there would be at most two teams between CLE/CIN/PGH and very possibly only one.

Expand full comment

I view Ben with a clean slate. He was given the 'opportunity' to tank (not sure they could have spent their way out of the hole - biggest trade asset in jail, work horse starter acquired via overpay injured etc.). Neil actually did well until he had to maintain the success (or at least not bottom out). Ben isn't even to that point yet, but I would love to be discussing how to maintain the playoff team. I'm too patient, but I absolutely see progress. If somehow 2 or 3 of Priester/Brubaker/Burrows/Oviedo/Ortiz would have looked like mid rotation starters entering 2024 this might have been the year to think realistically about a playoff run.

Expand full comment

The current system being Nutting. Do you know what the Pirate revenue was?

Expand full comment

The current system being one that funnels the most money towards the largest markets whose fans can afford to pay hundreds of dollars per game for 81 games for season ticket packages and that have the large population to generate massive TV contracts.

Do I know the exact revenue number? No. Can I figure out based on publicly available numbers that the Dodgers generate hundreds of millions of dollars more in revenue than the Pirates? Yes, I can.

Expand full comment

Do the Pirates have enough revenue that allows them to spend substantially more than they are? I'm not asking for Ohtani. Is there enough there to go after Montgomery and/or Snell?

The dodgers are paying a team of superstars. I'm asking can we afford one? If not the whole system needs revamping. Take a look at the NFL.

Expand full comment

They should be spending more. It’s absolutely inexcusable if they don’t sign someone like Belt/Hoskins and a starting pitching making $15-$20 MM a year. But, you have to look at comparable teams with the same market size. The Brewers/Reds/Royals on average spend more than we do, but not by some massive amount. Yes, the whole economic system needs overhauled. You need a salary cap and floor (to force owners to spend), and full revenue sharing.

Expand full comment

Jackson Chourio is a beast - a product of the Brewers stepping up their IFA activity in Venezuela. Still only 19 and tore up AA last year even though the league was experimenting for half the season with a tackier ball giving the pitchers an edge with more spin. When they went back to the real baseball, he became possibly the best hitter in the league. He's their CF of the future and should see MLB in 2024.

Expand full comment

I see Chourio is a #2 prospect that can play all over the field, can run and is only 19. I get it. I don't get the hitting part of it yet. .280 avg, .336 obp in over 500 at bats at double A to go along with over 100 strike outs. 22 homers is nice, but not super-scary with the bat yet, according to the numbers.

Expand full comment

He's 19 years old and was 12% above average vs AA & AAA arms. Not many 19-year-olds on the planet can make that claim.

Expand full comment

I already get the age and the fielding and not disputing that at all. I didn't know about his arm. Thanks for sharing that. He should be a major league stand-out for years. (Probably for fantasy league purposes) I was wondering what he has done with the bat. His hitting stats are ok for double A, but don't stand out yet..... unless I am missing something with his hitting.

Expand full comment

You're not wrong, but also this is why they say not to scout the stat line.

A 19 yo who cut 10% off his k rate between A and AA is very likely to be a better big leaguer than a 23 yo who puts up a 900 OPS or whatever.

I do, though, think we've hit the limits of the theory. Lots of super young guys getting pushed aggressively without seeing performance catch up.

Expand full comment