I actually thought Marcos Cabrera could’ve been a decent grab for them in the MiLB rule 5. Good frame with a cannon arm and hit the ball hard(when he made contact). I guess the hit tool was really just that bad.
A video in which Jared Jones tells us it was actually fellow prospect Thomas Harrington who unlocked the ride on his amazing fastball and not the Pirates development team or pitching coordinators.
>Prospects TLDR: Jones looks like a developmental success as he's improved his control of plus stuff. This is in no way attributable to the Pirates but rather one of their other pitching prospects and Jones himself.
Yet by the law of associative properties if Harrington was developed by the Pirates and Harrington developed Jones, Jones was therefor developed by the Pirates.
All this talk about one size fits all approaches and selling out for power would leave one completely unaware that the club's two best power hitters have massively regressed.
The approach seems a bit contradictory, no? Sell out for power, but the approach towards taking pitches handcuffs guys so they can’t feast on fastballs early in the count.
I don’t mean to suggest that pitchers exclusively pound the zone with FB’s early. In fact, this year I’ve noticed a lot of teams sliding in off-speed stuff early in the count. But that doesn’t change the fact that we do take some early count fastballs, probably too many.
He definitely has great stuff, just needs to keep the ball in the zone but not centered. Hopefully he can maintain his velocity and control as a starter, if not he could become a backend reliever.
Did not see the game, but looked like one that we could have won if the late inning relief was better. Good to see some friendly words about Cruz, Suwinski, and Triolo.
Well pitched game by Sullivan at AA, and another positive inning by Eddie Yean. Looking at the lineup and the players who are Pirate Developee's - Fraizer .216, Jarvis .154, Cheng .167, Bowen .161, and Gonzalez .192.
Liked the effort by Reilly with 5 IP, 2 H, 2BB, 8K, but a lot of pitches (81). Brannigan with a double and HR, nice slash of 250/391/481/872. The error was his first at SS where he is fielding .968.
Surprised that the Steelers drafted a player in Round 1 at a position of need! Can the Pirates locate a young prospect at AAA who plays CF, hits RH and with power? Possible Trade?
#5 seems too severe, but 3/4 seems about right, and #3's were signing for the kind of AAV Keller got, even if that AAV has been too much for the Pirates. Maybe Ben was feeling pressure to do something after not living up to his pledge in October to significantly upgrade the rotation.
As for defense, it could be argued that Tellez's defense cost us a sweep, though walks played a major factor in those innings. Is there anything worse than a player who thinks he can tell others how to play the game the right way when he doesn't do that himself (and it's not just plays like the two boneheaded plays yesterday, but jogging out of the box on grounders, not running hard to 2nd on DP balls, busting his bat when he's telling others to stay calm,...)? I hope he proves me wrong, but right now he's looking like the worst offseason acquisition since the Littlefield days.
Since I'm pretty down on Cherington about signing Tellez as our primary 1B, I'll give him credit for signing Lamb as a plan b if/when they call him up to replace Tellez. It's been a long time since Lamb was good, but he has put up a couple of 3 WAR seasons. Tellez's best season was 1 WAR and in 3 of his 4 seasons with at least 100 games he was worth negative WAR. All I can figure is that Cherington liked Tellez from their time in the Toronto organization.
Jake Lamb is a break the glass type replacement, due to his injury history and recent lack of production. A guy with Tellez’s career production demanded a better backup plan than Lamb.
Tellez is, if im understanding all the comments, is a terrible ball player (given), lazy and hypocritical person, and just maybe the type of guy who "thinks he is the smartest person in the room", disgusting??? 🤣🤣... just kidding, he sure is off to a tough start for us, sure the clock is ticking for him to 'right the ship', if possible🤔🤔🤷♂️🤷♂️
I haven't been this frustrated with a player since...well, was it Burntiz who thanked Littlefield for paying him when every other GM understood that he was done? So I'm sure my posts sound a little over the top--he can't possibly be as bad as he's looked, and I'm sure part of my dislike of him as how easily he took the "leadership" accolades in ST before doing anything for this organization.
He’s pitched like a #5, or worse, for many more starts than he hasn’t in his Pirates career. The best attribute to his game is his durability. That’s a valuable attribute, but he’s not a SP who can be counted on to give quality innings consistently.
If you think his poor outings in 2019 and 2020 matter equally to what he’s done the past 40-50 appearances, you can look at it that way. I’m not sure what a player did that far in the rearview matters in relation to his current status though, especially since he was a disaster early on.
For his career, Keller's a 4 FIP pitcher. If you isolate pretty close to where you suggested to since July 1 2022 (last 54 starts) he's a 3.82 pitcher. That's all in slightly above average SP range there. He's a 3-4 SP, imo.
With Keller there seems to be some bias towards smaller sample sizes. I’ve noticed this with Hayes as well. Not saying they aren’t useful ball players, but fans seem to want to isolate their hot stretches and say “this is who this guy this.”
That's why I like to post, "let this be Hayes from now on!". I hope for the day it becomes consistent enough I can post, "This is Hayes!" and be happy. Same principle goes for Keller, I'm not saying pitch like an ace every time out, but 2 out of 3 or even 3 out of 5 would make him a top notch 3 to a backside 2.
His inconsistent outings make him a backside 3 to a 4, only reason he's not a 5 is his ability to consistently go 5 innings and occasionally be dominant.
It sucks because they both have the potential to be a lot more.
He is Zack Wheeler-lite, but Zack Wheeler wasn't really Zack Wheeler until about his age 28 season. Some pitchers get better with age, up to a point. Keller will be one of those, I suspect. BTW... he has been fine really... the defense that the Pirates have played behind him would make most pitchers look bad.
The numbered starting pitching system gets murky to be fair. A lot of people hate it for that reason. I look at it in the context of the individual team. A number five starter for us is going to look different than for say, the Yankees. For us, to say Keller is a 5 is probably a little low, but I could definitely see him being a 5 for a top 15 market.
I know some people say there are only 10 or so number 1 starters in baseball. I simply say the top 30 starting pitchers in baseball are a 1. 31 thru 60 are a 2, 61 thru 90 a 3, 91 thru 120 a 4, 121 thru 150 a 5.
That’s a different way to look at it, by market size. My simple bald brain always liked the symmetry of a 5-4-3-2-1 idea of how to categorize what number an SP falls into. As in, a 5-WAR pitcher is a 1, a 4-WAR pitcher is a 2, and so on.
The categorization also highly fluid, considering pitchers vary greatly in performance and sustain a high number of injuries. So in practice, maybe that doesn’t work. For large portion of 2023, Mitch was a fringe 2/solid 3. I think he’s probably more in line as a 3, which is fine.
There’s so many different ways to look at it, because they are all rooted in opinion, and as you correctly point out: the state of pitching in the league at that moment. And none of the ways of looking at this are really wrong.
Seems by your own definition (which I share!) Keller was no more than a #3 last year, which included a first half that was far beyond much if anything he's been able to replicate in his career.
Pitched like an ace in the first half (2.5 WAR) and a backend starter in the second (0.8 WAR). The latter seems like what we can reasonably expect.
The hard thing to reconcile for me (probably just being a fan), is that Mitch was also pretty good in the second half of 22, when he seemed to turn a corner. But baseball history is littered with guys who do that sort of thing, so he’s unlikely to be much different. I dunno, if he can replicate those 2-3 month heaters like he did last year, I’ll take the inconsistency that goes with it.
I actually thought Marcos Cabrera could’ve been a decent grab for them in the MiLB rule 5. Good frame with a cannon arm and hit the ball hard(when he made contact). I guess the hit tool was really just that bad.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q87BOUY3Xvo
A video in which Jared Jones tells us it was actually fellow prospect Thomas Harrington who unlocked the ride on his amazing fastball and not the Pirates development team or pitching coordinators.
>Prospects TLDR: Jones looks like a developmental success as he's improved his control of plus stuff. This is in no way attributable to the Pirates but rather one of their other pitching prospects and Jones himself.
Yet by the law of associative properties if Harrington was developed by the Pirates and Harrington developed Jones, Jones was therefor developed by the Pirates.
Doesn't sound like Harrington was getting pitch design from the Bucs staff either. https://twitter.com/AscentAthlete_/status/1734253599692063083
Another reason I like Thomas Harrington. Have there been any injury updates on him/
Not that I've seen and he was "no throwing for 2-3 weeks" a month ago.
That's all I know as well which probably isn't a good thing about him being back soon.
All this talk about one size fits all approaches and selling out for power would leave one completely unaware that the club's two best power hitters have massively regressed.
The approach seems a bit contradictory, no? Sell out for power, but the approach towards taking pitches handcuffs guys so they can’t feast on fastballs early in the count.
The days of big league pitchers consistently throwing early-count heaters are long, long gone.
The fans who assume they're intentionally taking hittable fastballs desperately need to follow Pitching Ninja.
I don’t mean to suggest that pitchers exclusively pound the zone with FB’s early. In fact, this year I’ve noticed a lot of teams sliding in off-speed stuff early in the count. But that doesn’t change the fact that we do take some early count fastballs, probably too many.
Right, I hear you there, my only point is that I'm not sure I see a ton of evidence it's intentional any more than it's a matter of misidentification.
At the end of the day they're almost exactly leaguer-average in terms of strikes taken.
Maybe I'm giving them too much grace.
Fair enough. It’s something to watch as the season goes on.
I wasn't aware we had any power hitters.
The big dog with the big stick at 1B begs to differ.
Wasn't Reilly the guy making his first appearance in the made for TV Prospects game vs Orioles?
Yeah that kid is the real deal (sss!), he should make steady progression quickly thru the minors.
He's 2025's Jared Jones.
He definitely has great stuff, just needs to keep the ball in the zone but not centered. Hopefully he can maintain his velocity and control as a starter, if not he could become a backend reliever.
IIRC (or not) Agent00 was a big custodio guy, sad to see him go
he usually put up good stats. but the pirates never seemed to like him much. he barely played. weird situation
Did not see the game, but looked like one that we could have won if the late inning relief was better. Good to see some friendly words about Cruz, Suwinski, and Triolo.
Well pitched game by Sullivan at AA, and another positive inning by Eddie Yean. Looking at the lineup and the players who are Pirate Developee's - Fraizer .216, Jarvis .154, Cheng .167, Bowen .161, and Gonzalez .192.
Liked the effort by Reilly with 5 IP, 2 H, 2BB, 8K, but a lot of pitches (81). Brannigan with a double and HR, nice slash of 250/391/481/872. The error was his first at SS where he is fielding .968.
Surprised that the Steelers drafted a player in Round 1 at a position of need! Can the Pirates locate a young prospect at AAA who plays CF, hits RH and with power? Possible Trade?
No Everson shout out here at the end? Did Anthony threaten to ban you if you mentioned his name again?
Once again Pirates inability to make plays on defense costs them a win. Two dropped catches in OF and a botched rundown cost them 3 runs.
When is it time to start wondering if Keller is really a #5 SP who can eat innings rather than a TOR SP he has been for a brief period of time?
I think of him as a 3 starter, but is pitching like a 5.
#5 seems too severe, but 3/4 seems about right, and #3's were signing for the kind of AAV Keller got, even if that AAV has been too much for the Pirates. Maybe Ben was feeling pressure to do something after not living up to his pledge in October to significantly upgrade the rotation.
As for defense, it could be argued that Tellez's defense cost us a sweep, though walks played a major factor in those innings. Is there anything worse than a player who thinks he can tell others how to play the game the right way when he doesn't do that himself (and it's not just plays like the two boneheaded plays yesterday, but jogging out of the box on grounders, not running hard to 2nd on DP balls, busting his bat when he's telling others to stay calm,...)? I hope he proves me wrong, but right now he's looking like the worst offseason acquisition since the Littlefield days.
Jake lamb couldnt possibly be worse at this point, and it seems very likely brandon belt would be a significant upgrade. Theres moves for us out there
Since I'm pretty down on Cherington about signing Tellez as our primary 1B, I'll give him credit for signing Lamb as a plan b if/when they call him up to replace Tellez. It's been a long time since Lamb was good, but he has put up a couple of 3 WAR seasons. Tellez's best season was 1 WAR and in 3 of his 4 seasons with at least 100 games he was worth negative WAR. All I can figure is that Cherington liked Tellez from their time in the Toronto organization.
Jake Lamb is a break the glass type replacement, due to his injury history and recent lack of production. A guy with Tellez’s career production demanded a better backup plan than Lamb.
After what we've seen at first base so far Jake Lamb would look like the second coming of Joey Bart, lol.
Tellez is, if im understanding all the comments, is a terrible ball player (given), lazy and hypocritical person, and just maybe the type of guy who "thinks he is the smartest person in the room", disgusting??? 🤣🤣... just kidding, he sure is off to a tough start for us, sure the clock is ticking for him to 'right the ship', if possible🤔🤔🤷♂️🤷♂️
I haven't been this frustrated with a player since...well, was it Burntiz who thanked Littlefield for paying him when every other GM understood that he was done? So I'm sure my posts sound a little over the top--he can't possibly be as bad as he's looked, and I'm sure part of my dislike of him as how easily he took the "leadership" accolades in ST before doing anything for this organization.
Yes, it was Burnitz. Good one.
Prescient last paragraph. It’s why I was so leery of the extension.
It’s fair to be leery of an extension, but come on. He ain’t a five.
He’s pitched like a #5, or worse, for many more starts than he hasn’t in his Pirates career. The best attribute to his game is his durability. That’s a valuable attribute, but he’s not a SP who can be counted on to give quality innings consistently.
If you think his poor outings in 2019 and 2020 matter equally to what he’s done the past 40-50 appearances, you can look at it that way. I’m not sure what a player did that far in the rearview matters in relation to his current status though, especially since he was a disaster early on.
For his career, Keller's a 4 FIP pitcher. If you isolate pretty close to where you suggested to since July 1 2022 (last 54 starts) he's a 3.82 pitcher. That's all in slightly above average SP range there. He's a 3-4 SP, imo.
With Keller there seems to be some bias towards smaller sample sizes. I’ve noticed this with Hayes as well. Not saying they aren’t useful ball players, but fans seem to want to isolate their hot stretches and say “this is who this guy this.”
That's why I like to post, "let this be Hayes from now on!". I hope for the day it becomes consistent enough I can post, "This is Hayes!" and be happy. Same principle goes for Keller, I'm not saying pitch like an ace every time out, but 2 out of 3 or even 3 out of 5 would make him a top notch 3 to a backside 2.
His inconsistent outings make him a backside 3 to a 4, only reason he's not a 5 is his ability to consistently go 5 innings and occasionally be dominant.
It sucks because they both have the potential to be a lot more.
He is Zack Wheeler-lite, but Zack Wheeler wasn't really Zack Wheeler until about his age 28 season. Some pitchers get better with age, up to a point. Keller will be one of those, I suspect. BTW... he has been fine really... the defense that the Pirates have played behind him would make most pitchers look bad.
I’ve always said he’s a 3, even last year his ERA was over 4 and it was his all star year.
Always?? Lol both of us totally jumped off his bandwagon in 21-22! If he can be a "3" that's the best outcome we should be thrilled.
You know what, you are 💯 percent right about that, I’m rewriting history over here. 😳
The numbered starting pitching system gets murky to be fair. A lot of people hate it for that reason. I look at it in the context of the individual team. A number five starter for us is going to look different than for say, the Yankees. For us, to say Keller is a 5 is probably a little low, but I could definitely see him being a 5 for a top 15 market.
I know some people say there are only 10 or so number 1 starters in baseball. I simply say the top 30 starting pitchers in baseball are a 1. 31 thru 60 are a 2, 61 thru 90 a 3, 91 thru 120 a 4, 121 thru 150 a 5.
That’s a different way to look at it, by market size. My simple bald brain always liked the symmetry of a 5-4-3-2-1 idea of how to categorize what number an SP falls into. As in, a 5-WAR pitcher is a 1, a 4-WAR pitcher is a 2, and so on.
The categorization also highly fluid, considering pitchers vary greatly in performance and sustain a high number of injuries. So in practice, maybe that doesn’t work. For large portion of 2023, Mitch was a fringe 2/solid 3. I think he’s probably more in line as a 3, which is fine.
There’s so many different ways to look at it, because they are all rooted in opinion, and as you correctly point out: the state of pitching in the league at that moment. And none of the ways of looking at this are really wrong.
We’re also at a weird stage where older ace types are aging out, and the new tier has had a lot of injury hiccups.
Seems by your own definition (which I share!) Keller was no more than a #3 last year, which included a first half that was far beyond much if anything he's been able to replicate in his career.
Pitched like an ace in the first half (2.5 WAR) and a backend starter in the second (0.8 WAR). The latter seems like what we can reasonably expect.
The hard thing to reconcile for me (probably just being a fan), is that Mitch was also pretty good in the second half of 22, when he seemed to turn a corner. But baseball history is littered with guys who do that sort of thing, so he’s unlikely to be much different. I dunno, if he can replicate those 2-3 month heaters like he did last year, I’ll take the inconsistency that goes with it.