Our end would be way light. Maybe for Adam alone. The Rays wouldn't want Hayes' contract and Suwinski has no value at all. Harrington and Peguero for Adam might have a chance. Hayes and Suwinski just make the deal worse for the Rays, not better.
Two of ashcraft, barco, harrington, and peggy should be enough to get at least an OF bat with years of control I would imagine? I feel like a bargain bin corner OF is easy enough to find in the offseason, so CF would of course be the preference. Contending teams should probably have varying interest in Chapman, Gonzales, Perez, MAT, etc. to recoup some cost/maybe a lotto ticket
MLBTR "Front Office" (paid sub) has an article on the Bucs as a contender who could trade from surplus pitching:
"Perhaps the Bucs can use Gonzales and/or Pérez to nab a veteran bat on a similar deal, or simply trade them for a modest prospect return while trading other prospects for offensive help in a separate deal, therefore having a neutral impact on the farm system overall. Even without those two veterans, they could ride into the second half with Skenes, Keller, Priester and Ortiz, with Ashcraft, Woodford, Jones and Falter potentially in the mix as well.
There’s also the option of doing something bold, as the long-term rotation has plenty of options. Between Skenes, Jones, Keller, Priester, Ortiz, Falter, Oviedo, Burrows, Ashcraft, Chandler and Harrington, the Bucs have 11 potential starters, with everyone in that group under club control through 2027 or longer.
There would be danger in making a deal that subtracts from that group, as pitching “surpluses” often evaporate quickly. The Marlins are a perfect cautionary tale in this department as they have traded a few arms and have since seen almost all of their remaining starters hit the injured list, decimating what was once an enviable stockpile of rotation depth. But if the Pirates want to make a push, they will have to put something on the table at some point. And if their payroll stays near the bottom of the league, that means they will probably need to part with some prospect capital eventually."
Good point that perez/gonzales might be able to do an expiring contract swap for a bat! Wonder if any playoff teams need some innings to be eaten but have a spare bat on an expiring deal? Could also do a gonzales + ashcraft (or any similar combo) for a team that maybe has innings needs for this year but also is sending a bat with more control so that we help fill this year and future holes
Yikes. August 19th is the next day where the Pirates play a team that doesn't have a winning record. And even that series will be against 2023 World Champion Texas Rangers.
I love all of the trade talk. Getting excited about the 3 game home series with the Phillies. Wish I was there. The bottom line is if we sweep, we are buyers. If we get swept, we are sellers. HUGE series.
I have clearly entered rooting against anybody above the Pirates (beyond those out of reach which I conclude the Brewers) and for anybody below unless they are playing the teams out of it. ie. show me the wild card race everyday... if Brewers go belly up then I will worry about that when it happens.
I hear you on all of that, the only problem is we need to chase down the Diamondbacks if we want to make it as a wild card team. We are already ahead of the Cubs
Was more an exercise of 'who is an impactful player offensively I'd like', and Happ had reached base something like 60 games in a row vs Pirates. I mean he just signed his contract 1 year ago and runs for 2 more seasons, but he is the kind of guy I want.
Jazz and a corner OF rental are on my wishlist for the next few weeks. Jazz can give us a cf to ride for the next few years and i think a bandaid in the corner OF is fine while maybe this offseason we look to find a longer term solution, whether internal or external
I don’t think Jazz would cost “the farm” given the reasons you stated. Robert would cost more because he’s got a higher ceiling and more years of control. His health scare me, but he’s legit in center. Which they desperately need.
The problem with Jazz, and just about every decent bat with years of control, is the amount of interest that teams with deeper pockets/better farm systems have. We will almost assuredly be outbid for his services based on those factors.
I think those two cost about the same because Robert is better but more expensive. BTV has Jazz at 39 surplus and Robert at 36 fwiw. Chandler + Termarr = ~33 so... I'd prefer Kevin Pillar and Taylor Ward.
I'm guessing the only thing you do here is pimp the Pirates every move and criticize other commenters. BTV is flawed but it's the best model we fans have and based on historic trade data. Don't start trolling my every comment again, ok? You were warned about that.
Part of the problem with the BTV detractors, especially as it pertains to the higher tier talents, is that even if its valuation are wildly off, say by 30%, Jazz is still likely far more valuable than the prospect haul we are going to want to give up. Do we honestly think there’s any reasonable trade valuation system where Jazz’s value isn’t massive in this trade environment? Ridiculous.
I’m not so sure BTV is as accurate as it claims. I haven’t been on there much since they paywalled it (I pay for enough sports stuff online!), but their values seemed off on some players or would fluctuate way too much.
Hayes featured on today's issue of FG Replacement Level Killers which is notable because that's Fangraphs considering the Pirates 1) in the playoff picture and 2) I should probably mention we also got written up in the Catchers section:
>Pirates
Last year, in his fourth major league season, Ke’Bryan Hayes set career highs in home runs (15), wRC+ (101) and WAR (3.2) despite playing in just 124 games. The key was better contact than ever; he shaved more than seven points off his groundball rate, to 41.8%, increased his average launch angle from 5.2 degrees to 13.2, and set full-season bests in average exit velocity (92.2 mph) and barrel and hard-hit rates (7.4% and 48.3%, respectively). Alas, in his age-27 season he’s regressed, batting a meager .244/.297/.311 (72 wRC+) with a groundball rate that’s spiked to 51.4%. His average launch angle is back down to 5.1 degrees, his exit velo to 88.6 mph, and his barrel and hard-hit rates (2.3% and 43.6%, respectively) are career lows. Thanks to good defense (7 DRS, 3.7 UZR, 3 FRV), he’s produced 0.6 WAR, but back in May he landed on the IL for the fourth straight season, and for the third straight it was due to inflammation in his back. Jared Triolo, who’s played 26 games at third to Hayes’ 70, has been replacement level while filling in.
The Pirates have Hayes under contract though 2029, with a club option for ’30. They’ve been mystified and perhaps frustrated by his regression. They don’t sound as though they’re anywhere close to figuring out how to fix him, let alone make a change.
Hayes launch angle is very frustrating. He regularly just beats the ball into the ground. His exit velo and swing speed are above avg. But it does no good at all if its a 2 hopper to short…
The defense and exit velocity have both been subpar this year. Yet, I keep hearing that he’s a super valuable player because of these two attributes. I’m rooting for the guy, but it’s hard to keep ignoring the red flags, and I’m seeing a lot of that.
This is what worries me the most - exit velocity. You can always hope he adjusts his swing because for short windows he has. But the velocity always showed there was something there.. I am holding out hope that he is an adjustment or worst case off-season away from hitting better. If his glove returns to previous levels he doesn't have to be a middle of the order bat. Batting 7th with an elite glove is ok.. but that just highlights needing bats elsewhere even more.
With all the regression, it makes me feel his back might be the primary issue. That's a scary area, is it just rest he needs? Unlikely with it popping up 3 years in a row. Is it a workout, training fix? Possibly but again 3 years and the issue still hasn't been resolved and his performance has gotten worse. Is a type of surgery the answer? I haven't a clue but I've had back surgery in my playing days and it took me over 2 years to get back to normal.
Back issues suck and are fairly hard to fix unless it is highly detectable by physicians.
He might even want to try a D.O. or even a holistic specialist, again I haven't a clue just throwing out thoughts.
Really nice inning by Skenes. Yes the ump missed strike 3 on Soto because catcher had a passed ball. But that gave us the Judge AB so all good. Skenes has not allowed a hit in his last 9 IP, and only one IF hit in his last 11 IP. I mean this is historical stuff......and he's a Pirate!! Pinch me.
Interesting I always thought I was different with low 3/4 arm slot. I love what we're seeing.....even Skenes is mid 3/4 and you get so much more movement! The high school kids that I pitched BP to had a tough time with it, feeling like I'm not so bad after all!
Jury's still out. The two most notable examples in the system are Solometo and Mueth. Solo struggled so badly that he disappeared into development purgatory a month ago. He's the only one of the team's better pitching prospects having a bad year. Mueth has been very good, but it's still just rookie ball.
I don’t normally watch the All-Star game. It’s lost its appeal ever since interleague play began some 30 years ago. However I did make a point to watch Skenes pitch last night. Skenes is universally regarded as a generational talent, and he didn’t disappoint last night.
BC will be derelict in his duties if he doesn’t make bold moves to surround him with better offensive talent. I personally see Jones as his biggest and best trade chip, as I believe one of Chandler or Harrington or Ashcraft can replace Jones’ production. Perhaps even surpass it based on Chandler and Harrington’s recent body of work.
Fortune favors the bold and there’s no time like the present to GO FOR IT!
Please Ben, go get Skenes another Dylan Crews and watch him win another ring.
Pay the players of the winning team 100k more than what they normally. MLB can afford it. There would be more viewers. Players might try to win, not just for themselves but for their teammates.
I beg to differ but not vehemently. 100K for many is a lost bet in Vegas over the weekend. Players are so aware of taking care of their bodies / risk of injury I just don't see it ever becoming more than an exhibition. In some ways I am surprised teams even want their pitchers throwing at all. What if Skenes would have been hurt? It of course may have been nothing to do with the All Star game.. just a ligament that was ready to go, but it would not have been perceived that way.
39 first time all stars in the game this year, where most of them have a salary under 1 million. I can see a guy like Bryce Harper wanting to stay in the game longer to win 100k for his teammates or for some of the young guys. Who wouldn't. If 100k isn't enough, then make it bigger. I do agree that the money itself means very little to some of the veterans, but a lot of young guys on the roster.
If not money, there has to be some bragging rights. The AL vs NL argument was lessened since free agency got big and it has been squashed since interleague.
I do appreciate your optimism re: the game. I just don't see it happening and it is not just MLB, all major sports have the issue. For MLB it is most likely the pitchers from a usage standpoint (injury, not available as soon post All-Star game etc.) but all the other points - several you raise also are important. At some level when a batter steps in the box they want to perform and the pitcher wants to get them out, but the rivalries between leagues (really when players could become free agents IMO more than inter-league) etc. also lessened it. As a National Leaguer in theory, I really couldn't care less that the American League has dominated the All-Star game. btw.. good point / research on the # of players who don't have big salaries as more may appreciate the money. Doesn't change my thoughts (doom and gloom!), but good info.
I am really not that optimistic, just think mlb can try a little harder. Unlike other sports, MLB gets the pitcher's best stuff against a hitter trying his hardest.... as you stated. The home field for the all-star winner was the right idea, but a dumb an unfair idea for several reasons. I'll keep thinking and get back to you next year. lol.
Jones, Chandler, and Ashcraft all have career-high value right now. But I wouldn’t trade any of them unless I get fully legit, ready-for-MLB prospect like Holliday or a borderline star with multiple years of control like Crochet or Robert. Put together something like that, and I’m in. Otherwise, I hold.
The Pirates will not trade Jones. Teams that are building a championship caliber club do not trade players like Jones. Good pitching wins in the playoffs, and the Pirates will not give up any of the big 3. And I do not believe they will give up Chandler either, for anybody, short of Wyatt Langford. Priester and Suwinsky could very well lead a package (with one or two lower level guys) for a young outfielder (ie Bleday). Priester can step in as a major league starter now, with some upside. Suwinsky can replace the outfielder that is traded to Pitt; yes he has slumped this year. But overall, he has over 50 major league home runs, fields well, runs well and has control. I believe that is all it would take.
If they could get what we perceive as equal value for Jones (which we all agree is very high) for a bat, wouldn't they have to consider it? Wouldn't a win-win (vs. in Pirates favor) be ok? Please focus on equal value.. ie. IMO legit middle of the order bat and glove that is more than just playable and has similar control to Jones/Skenes.
Maybe true. But I would be surprised if the Pirates give up any of their top 5-7 prospects for players with 1-2 years of control that have high salaries and major issues (like Robert) or aren't very good (like Ward).
Priester isn't worth anything near that and Robert is controlled through 27 (two club options). If the Orioles offered Jackson Holliday for Jones and Holderman, I think I'd make the trade honestly.
I personally think that package is way to light and will not get the A's attention at all. But I'll just label it very different opinions on the value of the Pirate players - I am no expert. Another challenge with that package is they are trading a player with similar control as the players they are receiving. If the A's thought they would be competing in the near future, why not just keep Bleday. I think the A's and White Sox will want very good minor league prospects not players already burning major league control.
Perhaps. But Bleday is hitting .230 with 11 home runs at the break. Career .200. He is a good gamble, and may be in a semi breakout season, but he is no guarantee to be a star. I think we are over-valuing some of the players we want to acquire.
He has been struggling again for over 30 games. As much as I wanted him a month ago, I wouldn't want to overpay right now. If he comes out of the slump and finishes strong before the trade deadline, I'd probably jump back on board. Same could be said of Ward but he has a better track record.
That's the buyer/seller challenge. In the A's case there is NO reason to sell low so despite his recent downturn they can just hang on to him as he has years of control. If he just had his best 3 months of his career then they lose but it certainly seems worth the risk for them to keep him and see how each year plays out. I just don't see any incentive for them to trade him unless it feels like an overpay.
I can see that for the A's perspective but if I'm looking at the pirates I'd want more certainty before overpaying right now. The pirates should be looking at upgrades at lower cost right now, if it has a high degree of certainty then an overpay could be warranted.
I agree, but I’d rather hang onto Jones and deal the prospects. Ashcraft has had multiple injury issues, so I’d rather trade either of the other two prospects as part of a package for offensive talent.
Also, if you’re trading with a team who is going full rebuild, would they want a guy like Jones who has already started? Or Bubba, who probably has a higher ceiling and is still at AA?
They could probably get Taylor Ward, Carlos Estevez and Kevin Pillar for Ortiz. A bullpen with a backend of Nicolas, Holderman, Estevez and Bednar would be fun after Chapman traded.
Can you headline a package around him? IMO he is more of a good add on as I think we are still far from declaring him a for sure MLB starter and long relievers just don't excite teams.
I really hope you are right as it seems he may be getting his chance now. But until I see it we will just disagree on his current trade value / interest of other teams.
I'm also in the keep Jones and trade others wagon primarily because of 'the window'. Realistically Bubba and Harrington aren't in the Majors next year for any significant amount of time (IMO given normal progression) and I am not overly confident Ashcraft will be a full year starter. Also, while Jones hit the ground running, that can also be a bad assumption as prospects reach the majors. With my 2 assumptions we go all next year in theory without Jones in the rotation and without an internal replacement and for now I prefer not to take that risk in the 2025 rotation. However, I'll always say anybody is tradable depending on the return.
You bring up a good point. What I’m trying to say is Jones is a more valuable asset to a team who has aspirations to win between this year, and the two seasons to follow. And there seems to be a glut of those type teams compared to those in rebuild mode.
BC shouldn’t limit himself to only dealing with lower rung organizations. He’s in a position of strength with the depth of pitching talent. How well he leverages this strength will determine the ceiling of this team during the Skenes era.
He's that good. One of the things that stands out to me over this all-star thing is that the kid is super composed and he does not take anything out of stride. Cool as a cucumber. I found myself smiling often because he and Livy have star power and they're kind of charming. They'll be a big power couple for sure. And it is fun to watch young people handle all that glare with class.
He's a star, and the front office has to lock him up. Time to change your modus operandii.
He's very well spoken as you would expect from a kid who had a 4.76 GPA in HS (11th in the Class), spent the first two years of college at the Air Force Academy (All-Conference Academic Team), and she is a knockout to look at, but a "jock" herself as a gymnast who also earned $3.1 mil in Name, Image, and Likeness dollars this year. Yes, these two are definitely a power couple and great for the Pirate Image.
Good point. I’d also add that I’d be looking at bounce back candidates who are under control for a few years and may not cost as much (Lowe and Randy A on Tampa come to mind).
I've said iI think the GM (BC) will need to hit on 2 big moves and most likely they will be trades as while $ at some level should be available for a free agent, we still won't be swimming with the big boys (impact talent). Given other limitations (no need to debate that), he can't miss as there are not options to buy his way out of mistakes. The bounce back idea seems like a good place to look (and of course not miss).
Twins are looking for rental starters. We have two. Send them both and Michael A Taylor while we're at it.
What do you think about a trade with the Rays...
PIT get
Isaac Paredes: 3B, Randy Arozarena: OF, and Jason Adam: RP
TB get
Ke'Bryan Hayes, Jack Suwinski, Thomas Harrington, and Liover Peguero
64.2 from the Rays to 30.5 surplus value from us. Add Bryan Reynolds and you got a deal!
Sorry guys I don't have access to the trade simulator. Is there a package you would suggest for Paredes and Arozarena?
Endy, Ortiz, Hayes, Suwinski and Harrington is right about there. No worries!
What if it was Henry Davis rather than Endy?
Then I wouldn’t do it but yeah the Rays likely still would.
You’d probably need to sub out Jack for…I dunno, Bubba? Jones? It pretty much lacks a centerpiece for TB’s best player who has put up
more fWAR than any Buc.
Our end would be way light. Maybe for Adam alone. The Rays wouldn't want Hayes' contract and Suwinski has no value at all. Harrington and Peguero for Adam might have a chance. Hayes and Suwinski just make the deal worse for the Rays, not better.
Two of ashcraft, barco, harrington, and peggy should be enough to get at least an OF bat with years of control I would imagine? I feel like a bargain bin corner OF is easy enough to find in the offseason, so CF would of course be the preference. Contending teams should probably have varying interest in Chapman, Gonzales, Perez, MAT, etc. to recoup some cost/maybe a lotto ticket
Billy J Clinton suggested Pillar, who is an ideal CF rental.
MLBTR "Front Office" (paid sub) has an article on the Bucs as a contender who could trade from surplus pitching:
"Perhaps the Bucs can use Gonzales and/or Pérez to nab a veteran bat on a similar deal, or simply trade them for a modest prospect return while trading other prospects for offensive help in a separate deal, therefore having a neutral impact on the farm system overall. Even without those two veterans, they could ride into the second half with Skenes, Keller, Priester and Ortiz, with Ashcraft, Woodford, Jones and Falter potentially in the mix as well.
There’s also the option of doing something bold, as the long-term rotation has plenty of options. Between Skenes, Jones, Keller, Priester, Ortiz, Falter, Oviedo, Burrows, Ashcraft, Chandler and Harrington, the Bucs have 11 potential starters, with everyone in that group under club control through 2027 or longer.
There would be danger in making a deal that subtracts from that group, as pitching “surpluses” often evaporate quickly. The Marlins are a perfect cautionary tale in this department as they have traded a few arms and have since seen almost all of their remaining starters hit the injured list, decimating what was once an enviable stockpile of rotation depth. But if the Pirates want to make a push, they will have to put something on the table at some point. And if their payroll stays near the bottom of the league, that means they will probably need to part with some prospect capital eventually."
Good point that perez/gonzales might be able to do an expiring contract swap for a bat! Wonder if any playoff teams need some innings to be eaten but have a spare bat on an expiring deal? Could also do a gonzales + ashcraft (or any similar combo) for a team that maybe has innings needs for this year but also is sending a bat with more control so that we help fill this year and future holes
Is ashcraft going to help a team that needs innings for this year?
Neither guy would make the playoff roster of a decent club. Call me skeptical...
👍
Did we mention that Brubaker had a lat injury and is shut down now? Feel for the guy...
I saw that but forgot to post. He may be a Yankee now but I don’t wish anything bad on him.
does anyone know if they set the rotation for after the break?
That stuff is usually top secret information with the Pirates.
Aaron Nola vs undecided.
Undecided and TBA are probably going to have to get shut down early this year.
They’re so overused it’s like a human rights issue.
Yikes. August 19th is the next day where the Pirates play a team that doesn't have a winning record. And even that series will be against 2023 World Champion Texas Rangers.
Bring it on! Time to do the Nuke Laloosh, you know, announce their presence with authority!
Should have a clear picture where we stand within a week or two! For better or worse
I love all of the trade talk. Getting excited about the 3 game home series with the Phillies. Wish I was there. The bottom line is if we sweep, we are buyers. If we get swept, we are sellers. HUGE series.
Random - I'm rooting for the cubs to lose (I mean who isn't???) to Diamondbacks and swept by Brewers to make them clear sellers.
Then I think we pry Ian Happ away for a homecoming to Pittsburgh for what it takes. (Can we trade Priester and take on Happ's contract?)
It is not the best use of dollars, but I also wouldn't mind bringing Taillon back for sentimental purposes.
I have clearly entered rooting against anybody above the Pirates (beyond those out of reach which I conclude the Brewers) and for anybody below unless they are playing the teams out of it. ie. show me the wild card race everyday... if Brewers go belly up then I will worry about that when it happens.
like this
I hear you on all of that, the only problem is we need to chase down the Diamondbacks if we want to make it as a wild card team. We are already ahead of the Cubs
Was more an exercise of 'who is an impactful player offensively I'd like', and Happ had reached base something like 60 games in a row vs Pirates. I mean he just signed his contract 1 year ago and runs for 2 more seasons, but he is the kind of guy I want.
Let them split and we sweep a series, best of both worlds.
"I'm rooting for the cubs to lose"
One drawback of the comment system here is that we can't post pics of Steve Bartman every time we play the Flubs.
👍
They ruined that poor dude's life. Had to leave town.
Jazz and a corner OF rental are on my wishlist for the next few weeks. Jazz can give us a cf to ride for the next few years and i think a bandaid in the corner OF is fine while maybe this offseason we look to find a longer term solution, whether internal or external
Jazz is bad in CF and gets hurt all the time. Not sure selling the farm for him makes sense. Robert is similarly flawed.
I don’t think Jazz would cost “the farm” given the reasons you stated. Robert would cost more because he’s got a higher ceiling and more years of control. His health scare me, but he’s legit in center. Which they desperately need.
The problem with Jazz, and just about every decent bat with years of control, is the amount of interest that teams with deeper pockets/better farm systems have. We will almost assuredly be outbid for his services based on those factors.
I think those two cost about the same because Robert is better but more expensive. BTV has Jazz at 39 surplus and Robert at 36 fwiw. Chandler + Termarr = ~33 so... I'd prefer Kevin Pillar and Taylor Ward.
I'm guessing when GMs do trades, they use BTV.
I'm guessing the only thing you do here is pimp the Pirates every move and criticize other commenters. BTV is flawed but it's the best model we fans have and based on historic trade data. Don't start trolling my every comment again, ok? You were warned about that.
Part of the problem with the BTV detractors, especially as it pertains to the higher tier talents, is that even if its valuation are wildly off, say by 30%, Jazz is still likely far more valuable than the prospect haul we are going to want to give up. Do we honestly think there’s any reasonable trade valuation system where Jazz’s value isn’t massive in this trade environment? Ridiculous.
Relax and stop being overly sensitive. I've observed you citing BTV ad nauseum.
ok? get real tough guy
I’m not so sure BTV is as accurate as it claims. I haven’t been on there much since they paywalled it (I pay for enough sports stuff online!), but their values seemed off on some players or would fluctuate way too much.
Hayes featured on today's issue of FG Replacement Level Killers which is notable because that's Fangraphs considering the Pirates 1) in the playoff picture and 2) I should probably mention we also got written up in the Catchers section:
>Pirates
Last year, in his fourth major league season, Ke’Bryan Hayes set career highs in home runs (15), wRC+ (101) and WAR (3.2) despite playing in just 124 games. The key was better contact than ever; he shaved more than seven points off his groundball rate, to 41.8%, increased his average launch angle from 5.2 degrees to 13.2, and set full-season bests in average exit velocity (92.2 mph) and barrel and hard-hit rates (7.4% and 48.3%, respectively). Alas, in his age-27 season he’s regressed, batting a meager .244/.297/.311 (72 wRC+) with a groundball rate that’s spiked to 51.4%. His average launch angle is back down to 5.1 degrees, his exit velo to 88.6 mph, and his barrel and hard-hit rates (2.3% and 43.6%, respectively) are career lows. Thanks to good defense (7 DRS, 3.7 UZR, 3 FRV), he’s produced 0.6 WAR, but back in May he landed on the IL for the fourth straight season, and for the third straight it was due to inflammation in his back. Jared Triolo, who’s played 26 games at third to Hayes’ 70, has been replacement level while filling in.
The Pirates have Hayes under contract though 2029, with a club option for ’30. They’ve been mystified and perhaps frustrated by his regression. They don’t sound as though they’re anywhere close to figuring out how to fix him, let alone make a change.
(they also linked to this article with a bunch of Cherington quotes on Hayes: https://pittsburghbaseballnow.com/kebryan-hayes-slumping-pittsburgh-pirates/)
Hayes launch angle is very frustrating. He regularly just beats the ball into the ground. His exit velo and swing speed are above avg. But it does no good at all if its a 2 hopper to short…
Last year he hit .252 first half with a homer about every 60 at bats.
After the all-star break he hit .299 and homered about every 20 at bats.
Maybe he can turn it around again this year.
Historically it's been true that Hayes has good swing speed and exit velos. Not this year. His exit velo is 40th percentile and bat speed is 57th.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/ke-bryan-hayes-663647?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb
The defense and exit velocity have both been subpar this year. Yet, I keep hearing that he’s a super valuable player because of these two attributes. I’m rooting for the guy, but it’s hard to keep ignoring the red flags, and I’m seeing a lot of that.
This is what worries me the most - exit velocity. You can always hope he adjusts his swing because for short windows he has. But the velocity always showed there was something there.. I am holding out hope that he is an adjustment or worst case off-season away from hitting better. If his glove returns to previous levels he doesn't have to be a middle of the order bat. Batting 7th with an elite glove is ok.. but that just highlights needing bats elsewhere even more.
With all the regression, it makes me feel his back might be the primary issue. That's a scary area, is it just rest he needs? Unlikely with it popping up 3 years in a row. Is it a workout, training fix? Possibly but again 3 years and the issue still hasn't been resolved and his performance has gotten worse. Is a type of surgery the answer? I haven't a clue but I've had back surgery in my playing days and it took me over 2 years to get back to normal.
Back issues suck and are fairly hard to fix unless it is highly detectable by physicians.
He might even want to try a D.O. or even a holistic specialist, again I haven't a clue just throwing out thoughts.
He should hire Russ Martin to get him on a good core and pilates routine.
Really nice inning by Skenes. Yes the ump missed strike 3 on Soto because catcher had a passed ball. But that gave us the Judge AB so all good. Skenes has not allowed a hit in his last 9 IP, and only one IF hit in his last 11 IP. I mean this is historical stuff......and he's a Pirate!! Pinch me.
Is this a dream!
The draft and the all-star game are over. Play ball!
What? Not til Friday? What am I gonna do for the next 57 hours?
I'm going to be doing A LOT of sleeping lol
Thanks for all the work. Great info.
I find it interesting that most of the pitchers the pirates drafted this year have a lower arm slot
At this point, it's what I expect now lol
Interesting I always thought I was different with low 3/4 arm slot. I love what we're seeing.....even Skenes is mid 3/4 and you get so much more movement! The high school kids that I pitched BP to had a tough time with it, feeling like I'm not so bad after all!
7/8?
I'm more like 5/8 or 62° lol. Over the top pitchers are 40°. Sidearmers are 70°+.
15/16!
hey if it works then by all means, keep it up
Jury's still out. The two most notable examples in the system are Solometo and Mueth. Solo struggled so badly that he disappeared into development purgatory a month ago. He's the only one of the team's better pitching prospects having a bad year. Mueth has been very good, but it's still just rookie ball.
doesn't perachi have a lower arm slot too?
Not as much, no.
Tupac once had a song about Skenes...
*All eyez on me*
He knew Paul was coming!
Not only was Tupac a poet, but he was also a prophet.
I don’t normally watch the All-Star game. It’s lost its appeal ever since interleague play began some 30 years ago. However I did make a point to watch Skenes pitch last night. Skenes is universally regarded as a generational talent, and he didn’t disappoint last night.
BC will be derelict in his duties if he doesn’t make bold moves to surround him with better offensive talent. I personally see Jones as his biggest and best trade chip, as I believe one of Chandler or Harrington or Ashcraft can replace Jones’ production. Perhaps even surpass it based on Chandler and Harrington’s recent body of work.
Fortune favors the bold and there’s no time like the present to GO FOR IT!
Please Ben, go get Skenes another Dylan Crews and watch him win another ring.
Pay the players of the winning team 100k more than what they normally. MLB can afford it. There would be more viewers. Players might try to win, not just for themselves but for their teammates.
I beg to differ but not vehemently. 100K for many is a lost bet in Vegas over the weekend. Players are so aware of taking care of their bodies / risk of injury I just don't see it ever becoming more than an exhibition. In some ways I am surprised teams even want their pitchers throwing at all. What if Skenes would have been hurt? It of course may have been nothing to do with the All Star game.. just a ligament that was ready to go, but it would not have been perceived that way.
39 first time all stars in the game this year, where most of them have a salary under 1 million. I can see a guy like Bryce Harper wanting to stay in the game longer to win 100k for his teammates or for some of the young guys. Who wouldn't. If 100k isn't enough, then make it bigger. I do agree that the money itself means very little to some of the veterans, but a lot of young guys on the roster.
If not money, there has to be some bragging rights. The AL vs NL argument was lessened since free agency got big and it has been squashed since interleague.
I do appreciate your optimism re: the game. I just don't see it happening and it is not just MLB, all major sports have the issue. For MLB it is most likely the pitchers from a usage standpoint (injury, not available as soon post All-Star game etc.) but all the other points - several you raise also are important. At some level when a batter steps in the box they want to perform and the pitcher wants to get them out, but the rivalries between leagues (really when players could become free agents IMO more than inter-league) etc. also lessened it. As a National Leaguer in theory, I really couldn't care less that the American League has dominated the All-Star game. btw.. good point / research on the # of players who don't have big salaries as more may appreciate the money. Doesn't change my thoughts (doom and gloom!), but good info.
I am really not that optimistic, just think mlb can try a little harder. Unlike other sports, MLB gets the pitcher's best stuff against a hitter trying his hardest.... as you stated. The home field for the all-star winner was the right idea, but a dumb an unfair idea for several reasons. I'll keep thinking and get back to you next year. lol.
Jones, Chandler, and Ashcraft all have career-high value right now. But I wouldn’t trade any of them unless I get fully legit, ready-for-MLB prospect like Holliday or a borderline star with multiple years of control like Crochet or Robert. Put together something like that, and I’m in. Otherwise, I hold.
The Pirates will not trade Jones. Teams that are building a championship caliber club do not trade players like Jones. Good pitching wins in the playoffs, and the Pirates will not give up any of the big 3. And I do not believe they will give up Chandler either, for anybody, short of Wyatt Langford. Priester and Suwinsky could very well lead a package (with one or two lower level guys) for a young outfielder (ie Bleday). Priester can step in as a major league starter now, with some upside. Suwinsky can replace the outfielder that is traded to Pitt; yes he has slumped this year. But overall, he has over 50 major league home runs, fields well, runs well and has control. I believe that is all it would take.
Trading Jones would be a dereliction of duty. Unless the return was way in the favor of the Pirates
If they could get what we perceive as equal value for Jones (which we all agree is very high) for a bat, wouldn't they have to consider it? Wouldn't a win-win (vs. in Pirates favor) be ok? Please focus on equal value.. ie. IMO legit middle of the order bat and glove that is more than just playable and has similar control to Jones/Skenes.
That type of player would be way in the Pirates favor on the risk factor alone.
I don’t think Priester has anywhere near that much trade value. Jack has none.
Maybe true. But I would be surprised if the Pirates give up any of their top 5-7 prospects for players with 1-2 years of control that have high salaries and major issues (like Robert) or aren't very good (like Ward).
Priester isn't worth anything near that and Robert is controlled through 27 (two club options). If the Orioles offered Jackson Holliday for Jones and Holderman, I think I'd make the trade honestly.
I would too! But I’m guessing they don’t offer Holliday for anyone short of Skubal.
Maybe so.
If we’re lucky, the prospects turn out to be as good as players like Robert or Ward.
I personally think that package is way to light and will not get the A's attention at all. But I'll just label it very different opinions on the value of the Pirate players - I am no expert. Another challenge with that package is they are trading a player with similar control as the players they are receiving. If the A's thought they would be competing in the near future, why not just keep Bleday. I think the A's and White Sox will want very good minor league prospects not players already burning major league control.
Perhaps. But Bleday is hitting .230 with 11 home runs at the break. Career .200. He is a good gamble, and may be in a semi breakout season, but he is no guarantee to be a star. I think we are over-valuing some of the players we want to acquire.
He has been struggling again for over 30 games. As much as I wanted him a month ago, I wouldn't want to overpay right now. If he comes out of the slump and finishes strong before the trade deadline, I'd probably jump back on board. Same could be said of Ward but he has a better track record.
That's the buyer/seller challenge. In the A's case there is NO reason to sell low so despite his recent downturn they can just hang on to him as he has years of control. If he just had his best 3 months of his career then they lose but it certainly seems worth the risk for them to keep him and see how each year plays out. I just don't see any incentive for them to trade him unless it feels like an overpay.
I can see that for the A's perspective but if I'm looking at the pirates I'd want more certainty before overpaying right now. The pirates should be looking at upgrades at lower cost right now, if it has a high degree of certainty then an overpay could be warranted.
I agree, but I’d rather hang onto Jones and deal the prospects. Ashcraft has had multiple injury issues, so I’d rather trade either of the other two prospects as part of a package for offensive talent.
Also, if you’re trading with a team who is going full rebuild, would they want a guy like Jones who has already started? Or Bubba, who probably has a higher ceiling and is still at AA?
I have a feeling they're going to headline a package around Luis Ortiz. I'm prob dead wrong, but that's what my gut is telling me.
They could probably get Taylor Ward, Carlos Estevez and Kevin Pillar for Ortiz. A bullpen with a backend of Nicolas, Holderman, Estevez and Bednar would be fun after Chapman traded.
Can you headline a package around him? IMO he is more of a good add on as I think we are still far from declaring him a for sure MLB starter and long relievers just don't excite teams.
A team like Tampa or Houston would make Ortiz a stud. I think he's there for PGH right now but is lacking the opportunity.
I really hope you are right as it seems he may be getting his chance now. But until I see it we will just disagree on his current trade value / interest of other teams.
Hmmmm good call. That might be it!
I'm also in the keep Jones and trade others wagon primarily because of 'the window'. Realistically Bubba and Harrington aren't in the Majors next year for any significant amount of time (IMO given normal progression) and I am not overly confident Ashcraft will be a full year starter. Also, while Jones hit the ground running, that can also be a bad assumption as prospects reach the majors. With my 2 assumptions we go all next year in theory without Jones in the rotation and without an internal replacement and for now I prefer not to take that risk in the 2025 rotation. However, I'll always say anybody is tradable depending on the return.
You bring up a good point. What I’m trying to say is Jones is a more valuable asset to a team who has aspirations to win between this year, and the two seasons to follow. And there seems to be a glut of those type teams compared to those in rebuild mode.
BC shouldn’t limit himself to only dealing with lower rung organizations. He’s in a position of strength with the depth of pitching talent. How well he leverages this strength will determine the ceiling of this team during the Skenes era.
Heh-heh.
"The Skenes era..."
He's that good. One of the things that stands out to me over this all-star thing is that the kid is super composed and he does not take anything out of stride. Cool as a cucumber. I found myself smiling often because he and Livy have star power and they're kind of charming. They'll be a big power couple for sure. And it is fun to watch young people handle all that glare with class.
He's a star, and the front office has to lock him up. Time to change your modus operandii.
He's very well spoken as you would expect from a kid who had a 4.76 GPA in HS (11th in the Class), spent the first two years of college at the Air Force Academy (All-Conference Academic Team), and she is a knockout to look at, but a "jock" herself as a gymnast who also earned $3.1 mil in Name, Image, and Likeness dollars this year. Yes, these two are definitely a power couple and great for the Pirate Image.
Good point. I’d also add that I’d be looking at bounce back candidates who are under control for a few years and may not cost as much (Lowe and Randy A on Tampa come to mind).
I've said iI think the GM (BC) will need to hit on 2 big moves and most likely they will be trades as while $ at some level should be available for a free agent, we still won't be swimming with the big boys (impact talent). Given other limitations (no need to debate that), he can't miss as there are not options to buy his way out of mistakes. The bounce back idea seems like a good place to look (and of course not miss).