111 Comments

What do you think about a trade with the Rays...

PIT get

Isaac Paredes: 3B, Randy Arozarena: OF, and Jason Adam: RP

TB get

Ke'Bryan Hayes, Jack Suwinski, Thomas Harrington, and Liover Peguero

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You’d probably need to sub out Jack for…I dunno, Bubba? Jones? It pretty much lacks a centerpiece for TB’s best player who has put up

more fWAR than any Buc.

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Our end would be way light. Maybe for Adam alone. The Rays wouldn't want Hayes' contract and Suwinski has no value at all. Harrington and Peguero for Adam might have a chance. Hayes and Suwinski just make the deal worse for the Rays, not better.

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Jul 18
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Sorry guys I don't have access to the trade simulator. Is there a package you would suggest for Paredes and Arozarena?

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Jul 18
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What if it was Henry Davis rather than Endy?

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Two of ashcraft, barco, harrington, and peggy should be enough to get at least an OF bat with years of control I would imagine? I feel like a bargain bin corner OF is easy enough to find in the offseason, so CF would of course be the preference. Contending teams should probably have varying interest in Chapman, Gonzales, Perez, MAT, etc. to recoup some cost/maybe a lotto ticket

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Billy J Clinton suggested Pillar, who is an ideal CF rental.

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Did we mention that Brubaker had a lat injury and is shut down now? Feel for the guy...

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I saw that but forgot to post. He may be a Yankee now but I don’t wish anything bad on him.

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does anyone know if they set the rotation for after the break?

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That stuff is usually top secret information with the Pirates.

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Aaron Nola vs undecided.

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Undecided and TBA are probably going to have to get shut down early this year.

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They’re so overused it’s like a human rights issue.

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Yikes. August 19th is the next day where the Pirates play a team that doesn't have a winning record. And even that series will be against 2023 World Champion Texas Rangers.

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Bring it on! Time to do the Nuke Laloosh, you know, announce their presence with authority!

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Should have a clear picture where we stand within a week or two! For better or worse

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I love all of the trade talk. Getting excited about the 3 game home series with the Phillies. Wish I was there. The bottom line is if we sweep, we are buyers. If we get swept, we are sellers. HUGE series.

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Random - I'm rooting for the cubs to lose (I mean who isn't???) to Diamondbacks and swept by Brewers to make them clear sellers.

Then I think we pry Ian Happ away for a homecoming to Pittsburgh for what it takes. (Can we trade Priester and take on Happ's contract?)

It is not the best use of dollars, but I also wouldn't mind bringing Taillon back for sentimental purposes.

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I have clearly entered rooting against anybody above the Pirates (beyond those out of reach which I conclude the Brewers) and for anybody below unless they are playing the teams out of it. ie. show me the wild card race everyday... if Brewers go belly up then I will worry about that when it happens.

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like this

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I hear you on all of that, the only problem is we need to chase down the Diamondbacks if we want to make it as a wild card team. We are already ahead of the Cubs

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Was more an exercise of 'who is an impactful player offensively I'd like', and Happ had reached base something like 60 games in a row vs Pirates. I mean he just signed his contract 1 year ago and runs for 2 more seasons, but he is the kind of guy I want.

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Let them split and we sweep a series, best of both worlds.

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"I'm rooting for the cubs to lose"

One drawback of the comment system here is that we can't post pics of Steve Bartman every time we play the Flubs.

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👍

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They ruined that poor dude's life. Had to leave town.

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Jazz and a corner OF rental are on my wishlist for the next few weeks. Jazz can give us a cf to ride for the next few years and i think a bandaid in the corner OF is fine while maybe this offseason we look to find a longer term solution, whether internal or external

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Jul 17
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I don’t think Jazz would cost “the farm” given the reasons you stated. Robert would cost more because he’s got a higher ceiling and more years of control. His health scare me, but he’s legit in center. Which they desperately need.

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The problem with Jazz, and just about every decent bat with years of control, is the amount of interest that teams with deeper pockets/better farm systems have. We will almost assuredly be outbid for his services based on those factors.

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Jul 17
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I'm guessing when GMs do trades, they use BTV.

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Jul 17
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Part of the problem with the BTV detractors, especially as it pertains to the higher tier talents, is that even if its valuation are wildly off, say by 30%, Jazz is still likely far more valuable than the prospect haul we are going to want to give up. Do we honestly think there’s any reasonable trade valuation system where Jazz’s value isn’t massive in this trade environment? Ridiculous.

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Relax and stop being overly sensitive. I've observed you citing BTV ad nauseum.

ok? get real tough guy

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I’m not so sure BTV is as accurate as it claims. I haven’t been on there much since they paywalled it (I pay for enough sports stuff online!), but their values seemed off on some players or would fluctuate way too much.

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Really nice inning by Skenes. Yes the ump missed strike 3 on Soto because catcher had a passed ball. But that gave us the Judge AB so all good. Skenes has not allowed a hit in his last 9 IP, and only one IF hit in his last 11 IP. I mean this is historical stuff......and he's a Pirate!! Pinch me.

Is this a dream!

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The draft and the all-star game are over. Play ball!

What? Not til Friday? What am I gonna do for the next 57 hours?

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I'm going to be doing A LOT of sleeping lol

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Thanks for all the work. Great info.

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I find it interesting that most of the pitchers the pirates drafted this year have a lower arm slot

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At this point, it's what I expect now lol

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Interesting I always thought I was different with low 3/4 arm slot. I love what we're seeing.....even Skenes is mid 3/4 and you get so much more movement! The high school kids that I pitched BP to had a tough time with it, feeling like I'm not so bad after all!

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7/8?

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I'm more like 5/8 or 62° lol. Over the top pitchers are 40°. Sidearmers are 70°+.

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15/16!

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hey if it works then by all means, keep it up

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Jury's still out. The two most notable examples in the system are Solometo and Mueth. Solo struggled so badly that he disappeared into development purgatory a month ago. He's the only one of the team's better pitching prospects having a bad year. Mueth has been very good, but it's still just rookie ball.

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doesn't perachi have a lower arm slot too?

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Not as much, no.

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Tupac once had a song about Skenes...

*All eyez on me*

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He knew Paul was coming!

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Not only was Tupac a poet, but he was also a prophet.

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I don’t normally watch the All-Star game. It’s lost its appeal ever since interleague play began some 30 years ago. However I did make a point to watch Skenes pitch last night. Skenes is universally regarded as a generational talent, and he didn’t disappoint last night.

BC will be derelict in his duties if he doesn’t make bold moves to surround him with better offensive talent. I personally see Jones as his biggest and best trade chip, as I believe one of Chandler or Harrington or Ashcraft can replace Jones’ production. Perhaps even surpass it based on Chandler and Harrington’s recent body of work.

Fortune favors the bold and there’s no time like the present to GO FOR IT!

Please Ben, go get Skenes another Dylan Crews and watch him win another ring.

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Pay the players of the winning team 100k more than what they normally. MLB can afford it. There would be more viewers. Players might try to win, not just for themselves but for their teammates.

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I beg to differ but not vehemently. 100K for many is a lost bet in Vegas over the weekend. Players are so aware of taking care of their bodies / risk of injury I just don't see it ever becoming more than an exhibition. In some ways I am surprised teams even want their pitchers throwing at all. What if Skenes would have been hurt? It of course may have been nothing to do with the All Star game.. just a ligament that was ready to go, but it would not have been perceived that way.

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39 first time all stars in the game this year, where most of them have a salary under 1 million. I can see a guy like Bryce Harper wanting to stay in the game longer to win 100k for his teammates or for some of the young guys. Who wouldn't. If 100k isn't enough, then make it bigger. I do agree that the money itself means very little to some of the veterans, but a lot of young guys on the roster.

If not money, there has to be some bragging rights. The AL vs NL argument was lessened since free agency got big and it has been squashed since interleague.

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I do appreciate your optimism re: the game. I just don't see it happening and it is not just MLB, all major sports have the issue. For MLB it is most likely the pitchers from a usage standpoint (injury, not available as soon post All-Star game etc.) but all the other points - several you raise also are important. At some level when a batter steps in the box they want to perform and the pitcher wants to get them out, but the rivalries between leagues (really when players could become free agents IMO more than inter-league) etc. also lessened it. As a National Leaguer in theory, I really couldn't care less that the American League has dominated the All-Star game. btw.. good point / research on the # of players who don't have big salaries as more may appreciate the money. Doesn't change my thoughts (doom and gloom!), but good info.

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I am really not that optimistic, just think mlb can try a little harder. Unlike other sports, MLB gets the pitcher's best stuff against a hitter trying his hardest.... as you stated. The home field for the all-star winner was the right idea, but a dumb an unfair idea for several reasons. I'll keep thinking and get back to you next year. lol.

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Jones, Chandler, and Ashcraft all have career-high value right now. But I wouldn’t trade any of them unless I get fully legit, ready-for-MLB prospect like Holliday or a borderline star with multiple years of control like Crochet or Robert. Put together something like that, and I’m in. Otherwise, I hold.

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The Pirates will not trade Jones. Teams that are building a championship caliber club do not trade players like Jones. Good pitching wins in the playoffs, and the Pirates will not give up any of the big 3. And I do not believe they will give up Chandler either, for anybody, short of Wyatt Langford. Priester and Suwinsky could very well lead a package (with one or two lower level guys) for a young outfielder (ie Bleday). Priester can step in as a major league starter now, with some upside. Suwinsky can replace the outfielder that is traded to Pitt; yes he has slumped this year. But overall, he has over 50 major league home runs, fields well, runs well and has control. I believe that is all it would take.

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Trading Jones would be a dereliction of duty. Unless the return was way in the favor of the Pirates

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If they could get what we perceive as equal value for Jones (which we all agree is very high) for a bat, wouldn't they have to consider it? Wouldn't a win-win (vs. in Pirates favor) be ok? Please focus on equal value.. ie. IMO legit middle of the order bat and glove that is more than just playable and has similar control to Jones/Skenes.

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That type of player would be way in the Pirates favor on the risk factor alone.

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I don’t think Priester has anywhere near that much trade value. Jack has none.

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Maybe true. But I would be surprised if the Pirates give up any of their top 5-7 prospects for players with 1-2 years of control that have high salaries and major issues (like Robert) or aren't very good (like Ward).

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If we’re lucky, the prospects turn out to be as good as players like Robert or Ward.

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Jul 17
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I would too! But I’m guessing they don’t offer Holliday for anyone short of Skubal.

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Jul 17
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I personally think that package is way to light and will not get the A's attention at all. But I'll just label it very different opinions on the value of the Pirate players - I am no expert. Another challenge with that package is they are trading a player with similar control as the players they are receiving. If the A's thought they would be competing in the near future, why not just keep Bleday. I think the A's and White Sox will want very good minor league prospects not players already burning major league control.

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Perhaps. But Bleday is hitting .230 with 11 home runs at the break. Career .200. He is a good gamble, and may be in a semi breakout season, but he is no guarantee to be a star. I think we are over-valuing some of the players we want to acquire.

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He has been struggling again for over 30 games. As much as I wanted him a month ago, I wouldn't want to overpay right now. If he comes out of the slump and finishes strong before the trade deadline, I'd probably jump back on board. Same could be said of Ward but he has a better track record.

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That's the buyer/seller challenge. In the A's case there is NO reason to sell low so despite his recent downturn they can just hang on to him as he has years of control. If he just had his best 3 months of his career then they lose but it certainly seems worth the risk for them to keep him and see how each year plays out. I just don't see any incentive for them to trade him unless it feels like an overpay.

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I can see that for the A's perspective but if I'm looking at the pirates I'd want more certainty before overpaying right now. The pirates should be looking at upgrades at lower cost right now, if it has a high degree of certainty then an overpay could be warranted.

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I agree, but I’d rather hang onto Jones and deal the prospects. Ashcraft has had multiple injury issues, so I’d rather trade either of the other two prospects as part of a package for offensive talent.

Also, if you’re trading with a team who is going full rebuild, would they want a guy like Jones who has already started? Or Bubba, who probably has a higher ceiling and is still at AA?

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I have a feeling they're going to headline a package around Luis Ortiz. I'm prob dead wrong, but that's what my gut is telling me.

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Can you headline a package around him? IMO he is more of a good add on as I think we are still far from declaring him a for sure MLB starter and long relievers just don't excite teams.

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A team like Tampa or Houston would make Ortiz a stud. I think he's there for PGH right now but is lacking the opportunity.

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I really hope you are right as it seems he may be getting his chance now. But until I see it we will just disagree on his current trade value / interest of other teams.

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Hmmmm good call. That might be it!

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I'm also in the keep Jones and trade others wagon primarily because of 'the window'. Realistically Bubba and Harrington aren't in the Majors next year for any significant amount of time (IMO given normal progression) and I am not overly confident Ashcraft will be a full year starter. Also, while Jones hit the ground running, that can also be a bad assumption as prospects reach the majors. With my 2 assumptions we go all next year in theory without Jones in the rotation and without an internal replacement and for now I prefer not to take that risk in the 2025 rotation. However, I'll always say anybody is tradable depending on the return.

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You bring up a good point. What I’m trying to say is Jones is a more valuable asset to a team who has aspirations to win between this year, and the two seasons to follow. And there seems to be a glut of those type teams compared to those in rebuild mode.

BC shouldn’t limit himself to only dealing with lower rung organizations. He’s in a position of strength with the depth of pitching talent. How well he leverages this strength will determine the ceiling of this team during the Skenes era.

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Heh-heh.

"The Skenes era..."

He's that good. One of the things that stands out to me over this all-star thing is that the kid is super composed and he does not take anything out of stride. Cool as a cucumber. I found myself smiling often because he and Livy have star power and they're kind of charming. They'll be a big power couple for sure. And it is fun to watch young people handle all that glare with class.

He's a star, and the front office has to lock him up. Time to change your modus operandii.

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He's very well spoken as you would expect from a kid who had a 4.76 GPA in HS (11th in the Class), spent the first two years of college at the Air Force Academy (All-Conference Academic Team), and she is a knockout to look at, but a "jock" herself as a gymnast who also earned $3.1 mil in Name, Image, and Likeness dollars this year. Yes, these two are definitely a power couple and great for the Pirate Image.

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Good point. I’d also add that I’d be looking at bounce back candidates who are under control for a few years and may not cost as much (Lowe and Randy A on Tampa come to mind).

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I've said iI think the GM (BC) will need to hit on 2 big moves and most likely they will be trades as while $ at some level should be available for a free agent, we still won't be swimming with the big boys (impact talent). Given other limitations (no need to debate that), he can't miss as there are not options to buy his way out of mistakes. The bounce back idea seems like a good place to look (and of course not miss).

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Paul Skenes did well, and I thought he would have K'd Soto if the Catcher would have caught the ball - looked like he was on the black with a FB. Loved the Red Carpet interview with He and Livvy Dunne. Him with his comment about missing the Catching aspect of the game, and her with her response to the question of what she was wearing. Maybe they were expecting something like a designer's name like Vera Wang, but her answer was exactly what would be expected from a Senior Gymnast from the 2024 LSU National Championship Gymnastics Team, and one of the Top 5 NIL female athletes. She simply described the color and glitz and let the camera do the rest!

Another strong outing by Carlos Castillo who is all of 18 years and 5 months! Not a big strikeout pitcher, but he obviously knows how to pitch. Last year he pitched for the DSL Black and then the DSL Gold for a total of about 38 IP. This year in the FCL he has thrown 31.2 IP with an ERA of 2.84. Possible they let him throw a few starts at A before the season ends?

Hope to see a lot of movement upward by the kids from the FCL - the Pirates are loaded at that level, and the kids at A and A+ will also be moving up to the next level soon - I hope!

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We should let him hit ;) Steve Nebraska style

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Go back 5 years and he would have hit!

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THIS IS WHAT THEY TOOK FROM US

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Yeah, I mean, I've kind of grown to like the DH ok but it'd be fun to see how Skenes, Jones and Chandler would hit.

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does the rule say that the dh is required to hit for the pitcher? or the dh can bat for another position player like the centerfielder?

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Next year lol

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Jul 17
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Good point that perez/gonzales might be able to do an expiring contract swap for a bat! Wonder if any playoff teams need some innings to be eaten but have a spare bat on an expiring deal? Could also do a gonzales + ashcraft (or any similar combo) for a team that maybe has innings needs for this year but also is sending a bat with more control so that we help fill this year and future holes

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Is ashcraft going to help a team that needs innings for this year?

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Neither guy would make the playoff roster of a decent club. Call me skeptical...

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👍

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Jul 17Edited
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Hayes launch angle is very frustrating. He regularly just beats the ball into the ground. His exit velo and swing speed are above avg. But it does no good at all if its a 2 hopper to short…

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Last year he hit .252 first half with a homer about every 60 at bats.

After the all-star break he hit .299 and homered about every 20 at bats.

Maybe he can turn it around again this year.

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Jul 17
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The defense and exit velocity have both been subpar this year. Yet, I keep hearing that he’s a super valuable player because of these two attributes. I’m rooting for the guy, but it’s hard to keep ignoring the red flags, and I’m seeing a lot of that.

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This is what worries me the most - exit velocity. You can always hope he adjusts his swing because for short windows he has. But the velocity always showed there was something there.. I am holding out hope that he is an adjustment or worst case off-season away from hitting better. If his glove returns to previous levels he doesn't have to be a middle of the order bat. Batting 7th with an elite glove is ok.. but that just highlights needing bats elsewhere even more.

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With all the regression, it makes me feel his back might be the primary issue. That's a scary area, is it just rest he needs? Unlikely with it popping up 3 years in a row. Is it a workout, training fix? Possibly but again 3 years and the issue still hasn't been resolved and his performance has gotten worse. Is a type of surgery the answer? I haven't a clue but I've had back surgery in my playing days and it took me over 2 years to get back to normal.

Back issues suck and are fairly hard to fix unless it is highly detectable by physicians.

He might even want to try a D.O. or even a holistic specialist, again I haven't a clue just throwing out thoughts.

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