I'm predicting 5 players on the pipeline top 100. Skenes, Termarr, Jones, Solo and Bubba. If they don't all make it, they'll be in the just missed category.
Pirates couldn’t have gave Pederson $9.5M? That would have gave them another power guy in the outfield to platoon with Olivares. Now we are gonna be stuck with Olivares and palacios...
Yeah I agree. Just thought that power would have helped and it would have given you another known commodity. Only known commodity in the lineup is Reynolds. I think there’s a lot of potential in the lineup but who knows how they’ll play.
Don’t hate it. But was hoping for left my but he could platoon with Tellez. I feel like he is similar to Joe but has more power. I would think Joe would need traded if they sign him.
Boston only had one player in the Top 10 OF's, that being Roman Anthony. However, Boston's 22 year old #4 prospect, Ceddanne Rafaela hit for an 869 OPS at AA/AAA and then made it to Boston for 28 games last year. Their 24 year old #6 prospect Wilyer Abreu made it to Boston also for 28 games and hit for a slash of .316/.388/.474/.862 OPS in 76 AB. I have mentioned Rafaela and Everson Pereira of the Yankees a few times as possible trade targets as RH hitting CF's.
Anthony a suggestion more than a request since I could only imagine what your workload is like. But I was a huge fan of your prospect breakdown that included the videos, this is the sole reason I’m a huge believer in Carlos Jimenez for example. I don’t know if this platform supports video content, but if if lt does I hope you consider it.
Those will be coming back as my internet situation becomes more stable in the new house. I kind of went away from them because they were a pain to do in the hotel. As the season gets going they will be back
1) Who is your hope for a halfway decent Pirate outfielder? Is it White and that’s it?
2) If a prospect is determined to be a better fit in the OF, when should that move happen? For example, if Yordany isn’t a great fit at SS/3B, when should he try the OF? By high A?
1) Really hard to find somebody else. Polanco was hitting the ball very well when he got hurt. It'd be nice to see whether he could sustain that over an extended period. Maybe keep an eye on Eduardo Oviedo.
2) I'd say whenever it becomes clear he can't play a position. I don't see that happening with YDLS. Dariel Lopez, otoh, was definitely there before the injury. The bigger concern to me is not moving guys to positions where their bats don't play. Cole Tucker in the OF was one of the dumbest ideas I ever remember in an org that specializes in dumb ideas. The Pirates are willing to say, "So-and-so can't play such-and-such position," but never to say, "This guy can't play hitter."
My issue with the 2nd issue is this organization is always the last to realize a guy may not be able to field his position. It happened with Cruz and Davis. And what was written about Cruz within the industry was “he plays SS ok for a guy who is 6’7.” That doesn’t mean he can actually play SS well though.
I feel they have to make these decisions sooner. Shouldn’t they know by the time a guy gets to Indy if he is up to the position or not?
I don't agree on either Cruz or Davis. I actually think Cruz is where he fits best now. Davis I'm less sure about, but with robo umps inevitable, I don't see the big problem. The Pirates have been the worst-hitting team in MLB during BC's tenure and there are no big run producers on the way for the corner positions. Their best chance of getting the offense they need is to get some big-time hitting up the middle, as long as they can get adequate defense.
IMO, folks wildly underestimate just how far they have to go with their hitting . . . unless, of course, you accept their setting the bar at just "competing" and not winning. The Pirates' leader in OPS+ in 2023 would have been seventh on the Braves, just one point away from being eighth. Everybody else in MLB is playing offense in the 2020s. The Pirates are playing in 1968.
Cruz’s defensive numbers from 2022 were mediocre at best. If he’s where he’s at best now, it’s because they waited too long to move him. He would have been a better fit if they could change. Also, how’s the injury gonna play into his mobility at short?
Davis can throw. Other than that, is he a passable catcher at all? Gotta catch the ball to throw it and I dunno if he’s particularly good at that. Furthermore, what’s the plan for Hank long term? It’s clear they view Endy as more of a catcher than him, otherwise Hank would have gotten more time there. If Hank bombs behind the plate this year and he’s moving back to the outfield next season, that’s set him back another year in the outfield where he already needed a ton of work.
I think these two will hit, but how many runs will they give back on defense?
Maybe I'm being naive, but at least a handful of the most productive defensive outfielders in baseball - Mookie, Fernando, Varsho - started out on the dirt up the middle.
If everything said about Oneil's freakish ability held true, I see little reason why he shouldn't be able to join them.
I suspect Dreker's longstanding concerns have something to do with it.
There isn’t a simple answer. How many runs a guy’s bat adds should inform how many his glove can lose. Adequate for Henry Davis (hopefully) and for Jason Delay are two very different things.
One of the reasons I didn't like last year's draft and probably not this years either. They have a black hole of power in the minors and I don't see the organization drafting, trading or signing a free agent with power as their primary tool.
It seems like the Pirates have several guys that are the same type of hitter. Then they draft more players that are like the other ones we already have. That's why I wanted Andujar to get more at bats last year and the same reason I don't want them to cut Canaan Smith-Njigba too fast. Now if we already had Aaron Judge, I wouldn't be saying that.
First- White, Second-Smith-Njigba or Gorski (my guess the major league club will try to make them into something their not)), Third-One of their 10 middle infielders.
I buy into the draft the best player strategy and that shortstops are the most likely to change positions. With that being said, it is almost mind-boggling that they usually wait until these guys get to the majors before they consider trying a position change.
Gorski certainly isn’t. He’s almost as old as Olivares and he just got to Indy. CSN...probably has a higher ceiling. But how much higher and how likely is he to make it.
I would say CSN has a 25% chance with the Pirates and 50% with any other team. You are brobably right on Gorski. I understand how numbers are inflated in different parks, but here is another example of what I posted a couple days.
2022 Gorski struck out 1 in about every 3 at bats, but homers 1 in every 12 at bats.
I am guessing they worked with him on how to cut down on strike-outs, so...
2023 Gorski struck out 1 in every 4 at bats, but homered 1 in every 21 at bats.
To answer your first question: I'll throw Bowen and Polanco into the 'halfway decent Pirate outfielder' list. Bowen could just be last years Frazier or Gorski... we will find out. But he did 'look' like a ballplayer and that is also how I described Triolo several years ago when I saw him in Rome (Greensboro road game). Polanco is far enough away and the hope has not been dashed IMO. I didn't look at FCL or lower as that is barely squinting distance to the majors.
I'm predicting 5 players on the pipeline top 100. Skenes, Termarr, Jones, Solo and Bubba. If they don't all make it, they'll be in the just missed category.
Just so everyone knows to check back, I've updated the international signing tracker with signing bonuses for every player and the remaining pool
https://open.substack.com/pub/bucsondeck/p/2024-international-signing-tracker?r=20zgql&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
Pirates couldn’t have gave Pederson $9.5M? That would have gave them another power guy in the outfield to platoon with Olivares. Now we are gonna be stuck with Olivares and palacios...
Don't the Pirates already have Joc Pederson?
Maybe it's not a bad thing to have two, but the platoons sure would start to get messy.
Yeah I agree. Just thought that power would have helped and it would have given you another known commodity. Only known commodity in the lineup is Reynolds. I think there’s a lot of potential in the lineup but who knows how they’ll play.
I don’t think Reynolds is the only known commodity. Cutch walks a ton. Jack is a TTO outcome guy. Lots of wide bars for the rest of the roster though.
Duvall maybe? He’s a year to year guy given his age anyway.
Don’t hate it. But was hoping for left my but he could platoon with Tellez. I feel like he is similar to Joe but has more power. I would think Joe would need traded if they sign him.
anybody here want Santana on the roster instead of Bae?
i guess Reynolds could play centerfield from time to time
Boston only had one player in the Top 10 OF's, that being Roman Anthony. However, Boston's 22 year old #4 prospect, Ceddanne Rafaela hit for an 869 OPS at AA/AAA and then made it to Boston for 28 games last year. Their 24 year old #6 prospect Wilyer Abreu made it to Boston also for 28 games and hit for a slash of .316/.388/.474/.862 OPS in 76 AB. I have mentioned Rafaela and Everson Pereira of the Yankees a few times as possible trade targets as RH hitting CF's.
Super excited for these features AM!
Anthony a suggestion more than a request since I could only imagine what your workload is like. But I was a huge fan of your prospect breakdown that included the videos, this is the sole reason I’m a huge believer in Carlos Jimenez for example. I don’t know if this platform supports video content, but if if lt does I hope you consider it.
Those will be coming back as my internet situation becomes more stable in the new house. I kind of went away from them because they were a pain to do in the hotel. As the season gets going they will be back
🤗
There IS an “upload video” function in the editor. How well it works, I dunno.
What, no Pirate outfielders? This is an outrage! How could they miss . . . uh . . . .
Two questions for you or anyone:
1) Who is your hope for a halfway decent Pirate outfielder? Is it White and that’s it?
2) If a prospect is determined to be a better fit in the OF, when should that move happen? For example, if Yordany isn’t a great fit at SS/3B, when should he try the OF? By high A?
Pretty much just White. A tier below that i’m half intrigued by: Jase Bowen, Shalin Polanco, Emmanuel Terrero.
I think in AA is when orgs need to evaluate positions for players, based on defensive ability & organizational need, in that order.
1) Really hard to find somebody else. Polanco was hitting the ball very well when he got hurt. It'd be nice to see whether he could sustain that over an extended period. Maybe keep an eye on Eduardo Oviedo.
2) I'd say whenever it becomes clear he can't play a position. I don't see that happening with YDLS. Dariel Lopez, otoh, was definitely there before the injury. The bigger concern to me is not moving guys to positions where their bats don't play. Cole Tucker in the OF was one of the dumbest ideas I ever remember in an org that specializes in dumb ideas. The Pirates are willing to say, "So-and-so can't play such-and-such position," but never to say, "This guy can't play hitter."
My issue with the 2nd issue is this organization is always the last to realize a guy may not be able to field his position. It happened with Cruz and Davis. And what was written about Cruz within the industry was “he plays SS ok for a guy who is 6’7.” That doesn’t mean he can actually play SS well though.
I feel they have to make these decisions sooner. Shouldn’t they know by the time a guy gets to Indy if he is up to the position or not?
I don't agree on either Cruz or Davis. I actually think Cruz is where he fits best now. Davis I'm less sure about, but with robo umps inevitable, I don't see the big problem. The Pirates have been the worst-hitting team in MLB during BC's tenure and there are no big run producers on the way for the corner positions. Their best chance of getting the offense they need is to get some big-time hitting up the middle, as long as they can get adequate defense.
IMO, folks wildly underestimate just how far they have to go with their hitting . . . unless, of course, you accept their setting the bar at just "competing" and not winning. The Pirates' leader in OPS+ in 2023 would have been seventh on the Braves, just one point away from being eighth. Everybody else in MLB is playing offense in the 2020s. The Pirates are playing in 1968.
Cruz’s defensive numbers from 2022 were mediocre at best. If he’s where he’s at best now, it’s because they waited too long to move him. He would have been a better fit if they could change. Also, how’s the injury gonna play into his mobility at short?
Davis can throw. Other than that, is he a passable catcher at all? Gotta catch the ball to throw it and I dunno if he’s particularly good at that. Furthermore, what’s the plan for Hank long term? It’s clear they view Endy as more of a catcher than him, otherwise Hank would have gotten more time there. If Hank bombs behind the plate this year and he’s moving back to the outfield next season, that’s set him back another year in the outfield where he already needed a ton of work.
I think these two will hit, but how many runs will they give back on defense?
Maybe I'm being naive, but at least a handful of the most productive defensive outfielders in baseball - Mookie, Fernando, Varsho - started out on the dirt up the middle.
If everything said about Oneil's freakish ability held true, I see little reason why he shouldn't be able to join them.
I suspect Dreker's longstanding concerns have something to do with it.
My continual request for anyone to define "adequate" defense.
I, at least, find this to be the interesting part of the debate!
There isn’t a simple answer. How many runs a guy’s bat adds should inform how many his glove can lose. Adequate for Henry Davis (hopefully) and for Jason Delay are two very different things.
One of the reasons I didn't like last year's draft and probably not this years either. They have a black hole of power in the minors and I don't see the organization drafting, trading or signing a free agent with power as their primary tool.
It seems like the Pirates have several guys that are the same type of hitter. Then they draft more players that are like the other ones we already have. That's why I wanted Andujar to get more at bats last year and the same reason I don't want them to cut Canaan Smith-Njigba too fast. Now if we already had Aaron Judge, I wouldn't be saying that.
First- White, Second-Smith-Njigba or Gorski (my guess the major league club will try to make them into something their not)), Third-One of their 10 middle infielders.
I buy into the draft the best player strategy and that shortstops are the most likely to change positions. With that being said, it is almost mind-boggling that they usually wait until these guys get to the majors before they consider trying a position change.
Are either of the last two legit prospects at this stage? I’m not even sure they’re 35s now.
Agreed on your second paragraph all the way around.
Neither are legit prospects, but I think higher ceiling- lower floor...then Palacios and Olivares.
Gorski certainly isn’t. He’s almost as old as Olivares and he just got to Indy. CSN...probably has a higher ceiling. But how much higher and how likely is he to make it.
I would say CSN has a 25% chance with the Pirates and 50% with any other team. You are brobably right on Gorski. I understand how numbers are inflated in different parks, but here is another example of what I posted a couple days.
2022 Gorski struck out 1 in about every 3 at bats, but homers 1 in every 12 at bats.
I am guessing they worked with him on how to cut down on strike-outs, so...
2023 Gorski struck out 1 in every 4 at bats, but homered 1 in every 21 at bats.
To answer your first question: I'll throw Bowen and Polanco into the 'halfway decent Pirate outfielder' list. Bowen could just be last years Frazier or Gorski... we will find out. But he did 'look' like a ballplayer and that is also how I described Triolo several years ago when I saw him in Rome (Greensboro road game). Polanco is far enough away and the hope has not been dashed IMO. I didn't look at FCL or lower as that is barely squinting distance to the majors.
Mitchell jebbothy would like a word
Come on, you could’ve done better, how come they didn’t include TJ or any other middle infielder!
Alika Williams, #4 OF prospect!
Backhands every fly ball.