A 70 to me seems like a pretty good starting point for a guy that has just started playing professional ball. Plus, I am not only an eye witness, but a homer. So maybe fangraphs is only off by 5. :)
He is only a 50 FV overall which they have already raised. Baseball America pegged him as a possible future #1 overall prospect.
Sure I’m a homer too but I think watching baseball for 45 years I have some perspective.
The fact is scouts are very reluctant to give 80’s, partially because they are, in fact, rare, BUT also for that fact so they are afraid to peg someone with the highest grade.
I read a great story on the guy who scouted and signed Mike Trout for the Angels (did he go 29th that year in the 1st round?) He scouted him but was afraid to write what he really thought which was: This guy is Mickey Mantle!!!
I was at practice every day before games started this spring. I am more of a fan than a baseball scout, but he was so effortlessly fast in the drills. More impressively (infield or outfield), he anticipated when to get a jump and where to run. Not to mention, he did lead the nation in high school going 76 for 76 in stolen bases.
Well on his triple, Griffin's speed 1st to 3rd was behind only Duran and Carroll in all of baseball this year and faster than Chandler Simpson's. Carroll and Simpson both have 80 grade speed, so if Griffin is not an 80, he is close.
I've said it many times. He is ready for the big leagues in every aspect, except for the 6 walks and 39 strike outs. Let's take care of that first, then hopefully he can move quickly.
In Mel we trust! Gotta ask, if you can take anyone in the draft this year other than Holliday, who is Melkel taking? I'm firmly on the Willits train at the moment but not sure he makes it to 6 at this point
Holliday and Hernandez are the only two. So Hernandez, Willits is my third favorite overall with JoJo Parker right behind him. I'm not overly high on college bats this year, a couple of the college arms could change my mind come tournament time.
It's looks like it has gotten shorter since the beginning of this year. Wasn't real long when he hit the walk off in spring training, I just watched several of his at bats today, his hands look like they're getting through the zone faster with the barrel more direct to the ball as the season has gone on. I really think it's real, getting rid of the leg kick, added strength for barrel control and confidence seems to be the receipt.
His 2 homer game, next edit will be the homer in spring training. There's a little more loop from spring training, more direct with quicker hands in season.
I am very very far from being a scout, but on the HR this evening he is so short to the ball. The swing is quick and compact and the ball rockets to left field. Very impressive.
I believe he has 5 of my top 6 prep players going in the top 7 picks, Schoolcraft the only one not there. I like Willits a bit more than Carlson, but think his ceiling is higher than Willits. Willits floor is a lot higher. I like Parker a little more than Carlson as well. Don't get me wrong I like Carlson as well. I hope they are able to get 4 or 5 prep hitters this year (I'm dreaming). It's the strength of the draft. If the draft unfolds like he has it up until the pirates pick, here's my choices as of now.
Rd. 1) Willits Rd.2) Taitn Gray CompB) Hartshorn Rd.3) Diego Velazquez Rd.4) college power bat Jared Jones, Tanner Thach type. Rd.5-10) college pitchers.
Apparently the Pgh Sports Authority gave the Pirates a choice of preserving the bricks or giving them back to the fans, but the boobs chose to send them to the dump. (Can’t even call them the Cheringtons on this one.)
He should have been fired when he basically told The Athletic that winning wasn’t more important than how long people have to wait in line to get a beer
Considering his prior career rate was 31%, it’s remarkable. Don’t remember a drop like that before, especially not in the mid-minors with a sharp increase in power.
Maybe he reverts back, but we’re…six weeks into the season now right? I would view these numbers with a lot more suspicion if it was, say, two weeks with K rate that dropped to that degree. Interesting to see where this goes.
Not as long as his hands are clean and free while releasing. I'll look at some videos from this year and prior years to get a better grasp of your question. A lot of times when the back shoulder drops the elbow gets into the body tying up the hands and or the hips open up to far to compensate on pitches on the inner third.
Just watched the excellent video Anthony made. No problem whatsoever, his hips open but his leg stays in on inside pitches and let's him adjust to outer third breaking pitches, keeping the barrel where he needs it in the zone. The opposite is a player like Gorski that flies open, leading to some ugly swings.
When Rivas first joined the Pirates, there were a couple guys who got more money, but they were really impressed with Rivas. (This came from John back then, obviously.). They thought the talent was there. I suppose it just took a basic adjustment, like no leg kick. Similar to Dotel picking up a splitter. We can hope at least.
Worth noting—they had him hitting cleanup from the start of the season. Nothing in his track record supported that. They must have thought something had changed.
When I talked to Blake Butler he said Rivas was one of the guys who stood out immediately in camp. Looked bigger, and then when they hit the field the power was there too. He probably knew from the get-go he was going into the clean up spot.
Not directed at you, but I don't want to hear any of that hamate injury sh*t excuses for Horwitz! I didn't buy that excuse with Triolo and was proved correct.....Triolo is not a good hitter, had nothing to do with his hamate!
I doubt they're ready to move on from Pham but at least Kelly is using him appropriately as a 4th or 5th OF.
In any case, who else gets sent out if they bring Horwitz and Solak up? I guess it would have to be Bae, but I like the dimension he brings to the team. Or would it be Gorski, but Gorski would seem to be a good potential platoon partner to Horwitz. Unfortunately, I think I answered my questions--they'll keep Pham and send Bae and Gorski down.
My dream would be packaging Pham and Ferguson to the Mets for Marte, Mauricio, and a couple million to get Marte's salary down to $8 million for the rest of the year.
I'm in on the Yorke to majors camp, but just not right now. .248 average 25%k rate and few walks so far this year. I think he needs more at bats to get his stroke back to where it was last year...... plus I want to see hime play on my week trip in Indy which starts in 11 days. :)
Agreed. There’s going to be an adjustment going from AAA pitching to the majors regardless. As long as he’s pain-free and feeling good, I’d rather he get the at-bats at the major league level.
New Fangraphs article on the state of the Pirates. Not a lot of new info, but a good overview of how this team is a mess from the top down. Also condemns Nutting for pocketing more of the revenue sharing than any other team (though not sure what evidence this is based on).
It's too harsh to already label Davis as a bust. He's only had 419 PAs in the majors and most of those came in '23 when they decided he should learn RF as he was adjusting to the majors. He's hit well in the minors; there's still hope.
Also way too negative on Johnson--yeah, he's dropped off their top 100 list but he's a 20-year-old with a 130 wRC+ in AA.
I can't argue with the rest of the article, though, and especially the need for an audit on what's gone wrong with developing hitters.
Davis has as many starts in RF as he has games played as a Catcher in the majors (49). It would be nice if he could get an extended look at big league pitching while catching. Less than a third of a season scattered over 2 years is not really seeing what you have.
Speaking of Davis catching, Noah Hiles had this comment in his Mailbag column today:
"And while the Pirates have a better offensive option at catcher in Joey Bart, he’s not capable of catching Skenes. That’s something I’ve been told from people within the organization."
That seemed very surprising--anyone have any additional context for this?
Okay, Hiles added this in response to a comment about the original quote:
"The simple way to put it is this -- Skenes' stuff is really good. And when you have someone with that much velocity and break on the mound, you need an above average defender behind the plate. Being able to frame pitches on the corners and block pitches in the dirt is always important, and those tasks are much harder when the ball is coming in faster, with more spin. Can Bart physically catch Skenes? Yes. But his catching wouldn't get the most out of Skenes. A better defender maximizes what Skenes provides on the mound. And they're not in a position to lessen what he provides."
Well... if they would have done the sensible thing and gave Bart reps at 1B during spring training, there would have been playing time for Davis and would continue to be against left-handers through the whole season.
You’re missing the Piratethink element here. If he played a dozen games at first in ST, then he’d be too inexperienced to play there. But if he never played there before, we wouldn’t know how he’d do, so it’d be OK to play him there.
"Griffin was the shortstop for his 6A State Champion high school team in Mississippi but was a little too stiff to play there on the showcase circuit. He mostly played right field with Team USA and at select events because his feel for the outfield wasn’t as polished as his more experienced peers, who were more seaworthy in center field."
That's the totality of comment FanGraphs has ever made about Konnor Griffin at SS, followed by absolutely effusive praise over his undeniable CF traits. Traits our own Anthony Murphy just corroborated. Nothing that said Griffin "can't" play SS. Nothing that said he can't get better. Nothing that even said the Pirates shouldn't play him there.
*This* is what's pushing you guys to display your own inferiority complex? You can just not.
By my eye he's showing noticeable growth in approach and contact. He's hitting the ball to left more often, strikeouts keep lowering, just needs the power to start showing up and finding the gaps more often. I really think he has attempted a few bunts for hits to alter the positioning of the left side of the infield.
I noticed that he's 9th in the Eastern League in BB/K ratio, 10th in K%, yet also 24th in SLG despite being the youngest player with enough PAs to qualify for the leaderboard (which lists 75 players). That combination seems impressive for someone so young.
Too soon to tell, but looked like throwing arm. After the last pitch he threw, he kept it awkwardly at a 90 degree angle and seemed to be flexing his grip until he walked off the field.
I do as well, but by backfilling that fills up the 40 man, without having Solak on it. if they were serious about bringing Solak up in the near future, they either a) are ready to cut someone off the 40 man or b) they wouldn't have signed Helman.
https://x.com/MLBPipeline/status/1923204572090155230
Griffin hittin'!
Konnor Griffin is so fast. Just insane how quick he gets around those bases.
Insane.
But he is only a 70….
Seeing his success and listening to the eyewitnesses on here, I’m going to guess that every Fangraphs grade on him is off by at least 10.
A 70 to me seems like a pretty good starting point for a guy that has just started playing professional ball. Plus, I am not only an eye witness, but a homer. So maybe fangraphs is only off by 5. :)
He is only a 50 FV overall which they have already raised. Baseball America pegged him as a possible future #1 overall prospect.
Sure I’m a homer too but I think watching baseball for 45 years I have some perspective.
The fact is scouts are very reluctant to give 80’s, partially because they are, in fact, rare, BUT also for that fact so they are afraid to peg someone with the highest grade.
I read a great story on the guy who scouted and signed Mike Trout for the Angels (did he go 29th that year in the 1st round?) He scouted him but was afraid to write what he really thought which was: This guy is Mickey Mantle!!!
I was at practice every day before games started this spring. I am more of a fan than a baseball scout, but he was so effortlessly fast in the drills. More impressively (infield or outfield), he anticipated when to get a jump and where to run. Not to mention, he did lead the nation in high school going 76 for 76 in stolen bases.
Well on his triple, Griffin's speed 1st to 3rd was behind only Duran and Carroll in all of baseball this year and faster than Chandler Simpson's. Carroll and Simpson both have 80 grade speed, so if Griffin is not an 80, he is close.
Griffin is going to force a promotion by proving he is too good for the league he is in.
I've said it many times. He is ready for the big leagues in every aspect, except for the 6 walks and 39 strike outs. Let's take care of that first, then hopefully he can move quickly.
I like to look at it like this,
In his first 10 games of professional ball Griffin had 17 strikeouts in 47 plate appearances. 36% k rate.
In the games after he has 22 strikeouts in 96 plate appearances. 23% k rate.
Overall 39 strikeouts in 143 plate appearances. 27% k rate.
I'm not worried about the walks, I think they'll come.
In his last 10 game, 9 strikeouts in 45 plate appearances. 20% k rate.
In Mel we trust! Gotta ask, if you can take anyone in the draft this year other than Holliday, who is Melkel taking? I'm firmly on the Willits train at the moment but not sure he makes it to 6 at this point
Holliday and Hernandez are the only two. So Hernandez, Willits is my third favorite overall with JoJo Parker right behind him. I'm not overly high on college bats this year, a couple of the college arms could change my mind come tournament time.
Well nevermind, I read further through the comments and found exactly what I was looking for. Always enjoy your draft takes
That has me pretty excited. We need more off-days so we can put the emphasis of our talks back on Konnor Griffin's potential.
Valdez with #11. Nine of those at home. Has a huge H/R split. Rivas also has a big split, but not as big. Has .830 OPS on the road.
https://x.com/GSOHoppers/status/1923168697121726699
He is not lacking confidence. :)
at least valdez's numbers are pretty solid on the road too
The new guy, Helman, was optioned to Indy.
Another good start for McMillan.
5 3 1 1 2 4
Termarr with a base knock after trying for a bunt single.
Valdez doubles Rivas homers.
#9. Is it my imagination or does his swing look shorter?
https://x.com/GSOHoppers/status/1923149617346085323
#MohrRivas
It's looks like it has gotten shorter since the beginning of this year. Wasn't real long when he hit the walk off in spring training, I just watched several of his at bats today, his hands look like they're getting through the zone faster with the barrel more direct to the ball as the season has gone on. I really think it's real, getting rid of the leg kick, added strength for barrel control and confidence seems to be the receipt.
https://www.mlb.com/video/javier-rivas-two-homer-game?partnerId=web_video-playback-page_video-share
His 2 homer game, next edit will be the homer in spring training. There's a little more loop from spring training, more direct with quicker hands in season.
https://www.mlb.com/video/javier-rivas-walk-off-homer?partnerId=web_video-playback-page_video-share
I am very very far from being a scout, but on the HR this evening he is so short to the ball. The swing is quick and compact and the ball rockets to left field. Very impressive.
A thing of beauty lol
The team should have Gorski try that.
Griffin had a leadoff single (110mph off the bat). Scored on a Bishop double.
https://futurestarsseries.com/?p=29156
Read and react Mel.
I believe he has 5 of my top 6 prep players going in the top 7 picks, Schoolcraft the only one not there. I like Willits a bit more than Carlson, but think his ceiling is higher than Willits. Willits floor is a lot higher. I like Parker a little more than Carlson as well. Don't get me wrong I like Carlson as well. I hope they are able to get 4 or 5 prep hitters this year (I'm dreaming). It's the strength of the draft. If the draft unfolds like he has it up until the pirates pick, here's my choices as of now.
Rd. 1) Willits Rd.2) Taitn Gray CompB) Hartshorn Rd.3) Diego Velazquez Rd.4) college power bat Jared Jones, Tanner Thach type. Rd.5-10) college pitchers.
I will try to remember that come draft.
Lot of time for things to change lol
Too late Mel, it’s written in stone tablets now.
Somehow brick-gate has managed to get worse. It appears Travis the Who is thick as a brick.
Lol what happened now?
Apparently the Pgh Sports Authority gave the Pirates a choice of preserving the bricks or giving them back to the fans, but the boobs chose to send them to the dump. (Can’t even call them the Cheringtons on this one.)
Oh wow so it wasn't even negligence... that's so bad lol amazing how incompetent they are at literally every level
Williams should be fired for this because as it stands now, this works too well as a metaphor for how administration feels about us fans.
He should have been fired when he basically told The Athletic that winning wasn’t more important than how long people have to wait in line to get a beer
It’s no metaphor, it IS how they feel about the fans.
Javier Rivas is only striking out at 18.5% this year vs RHPing. That's not to bad!
Considering his prior career rate was 31%, it’s remarkable. Don’t remember a drop like that before, especially not in the mid-minors with a sharp increase in power.
Maybe he reverts back, but we’re…six weeks into the season now right? I would view these numbers with a lot more suspicion if it was, say, two weeks with K rate that dropped to that degree. Interesting to see where this goes.
And for some reason it feels real.
Does the marked drop in his back shoulder as he starts his swing bother you?
https://x.com/GSOHoppers/status/1923149617346085323
Good example of what I wrote below. Inner third, hips opened up, front leg stayed in, hands stayed free and clean, boom 💥
Not as long as his hands are clean and free while releasing. I'll look at some videos from this year and prior years to get a better grasp of your question. A lot of times when the back shoulder drops the elbow gets into the body tying up the hands and or the hips open up to far to compensate on pitches on the inner third.
Just watched the excellent video Anthony made. No problem whatsoever, his hips open but his leg stays in on inside pitches and let's him adjust to outer third breaking pitches, keeping the barrel where he needs it in the zone. The opposite is a player like Gorski that flies open, leading to some ugly swings.
His barrel control looks very good.
When Rivas first joined the Pirates, there were a couple guys who got more money, but they were really impressed with Rivas. (This came from John back then, obviously.). They thought the talent was there. I suppose it just took a basic adjustment, like no leg kick. Similar to Dotel picking up a splitter. We can hope at least.
Worth noting—they had him hitting cleanup from the start of the season. Nothing in his track record supported that. They must have thought something had changed.
When I talked to Blake Butler he said Rivas was one of the guys who stood out immediately in camp. Looked bigger, and then when they hit the field the power was there too. He probably knew from the get-go he was going into the clean up spot.
good stuff, Wilbur.
I want to believe.
When’s the last time Pirates promoted a prospect from low A ball to MLB? Desperate times call for desperate measures.
Horwitz just homered.
Hopefully Horwitz and Solak will be in Philly this weekend and Pham won't.
Not directed at you, but I don't want to hear any of that hamate injury sh*t excuses for Horwitz! I didn't buy that excuse with Triolo and was proved correct.....Triolo is not a good hitter, had nothing to do with his hamate!
I just want a league average hitter, with decent defense at first base lol.
I preferred Juan Brito in a trade with Cleveland, he's out with a hand injury too.
It's a black hole over there. Just when we're getting comfortable with Valdez, boom on 60 day IL.
It shouldn't be this difficult.
I doubt they're ready to move on from Pham but at least Kelly is using him appropriately as a 4th or 5th OF.
In any case, who else gets sent out if they bring Horwitz and Solak up? I guess it would have to be Bae, but I like the dimension he brings to the team. Or would it be Gorski, but Gorski would seem to be a good potential platoon partner to Horwitz. Unfortunately, I think I answered my questions--they'll keep Pham and send Bae and Gorski down.
You're right...
My dream would be packaging Pham and Ferguson to the Mets for Marte, Mauricio, and a couple million to get Marte's salary down to $8 million for the rest of the year.
I have a hard time envisioning a world where Pham gets you more than a restraining order at this point.
Ha!
You could talk me into bringing up Yorke for the same reason as Horwitz. Neither in are AAA to develop, only recover from injury.
when was yorke hurt?
He missed a week a little over a month ago.
I'm in on the Yorke to majors camp, but just not right now. .248 average 25%k rate and few walks so far this year. I think he needs more at bats to get his stroke back to where it was last year...... plus I want to see hime play on my week trip in Indy which starts in 11 days. :)
Yep
I should have kept watching. His first two ABs were not impressive, but it only takes 1 out of every 3 or 4 ABs to be productive player :)
Beat me to it. Batting .323 in his time in Indy. I’ve seen enough, get him with the big league club
i'm damn close. if he's healthy, let him finish tuning up against big leaguers.
they're below a .600 OPS at 1B so far this year.
what's the worst that can happen two more weeks of shitty 1B production?
Agreed. There’s going to be an adjustment going from AAA pitching to the majors regardless. As long as he’s pain-free and feeling good, I’d rather he get the at-bats at the major league level.
We have had shitty production there since maybe KY? GI Jones? The Mayor? I feel I can continue to be patient.
He's my next GFJ. old dude prospect, unheralded, who gets a shot and performs as the big side of a platoon.
they clearly can do worse!
Loved the GFJ era. Streaky as all get out but damn he would get on some stretches of mashing.
I feel like that about Craig Wilson. When he got on a heater and the mullet was flowing shit was majestic.
New Fangraphs article on the state of the Pirates. Not a lot of new info, but a good overview of how this team is a mess from the top down. Also condemns Nutting for pocketing more of the revenue sharing than any other team (though not sure what evidence this is based on).
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-pirates-are-sailing-without-a-map/
It's too harsh to already label Davis as a bust. He's only had 419 PAs in the majors and most of those came in '23 when they decided he should learn RF as he was adjusting to the majors. He's hit well in the minors; there's still hope.
Also way too negative on Johnson--yeah, he's dropped off their top 100 list but he's a 20-year-old with a 130 wRC+ in AA.
I can't argue with the rest of the article, though, and especially the need for an audit on what's gone wrong with developing hitters.
Davis has as many starts in RF as he has games played as a Catcher in the majors (49). It would be nice if he could get an extended look at big league pitching while catching. Less than a third of a season scattered over 2 years is not really seeing what you have.
Speaking of Davis catching, Noah Hiles had this comment in his Mailbag column today:
"And while the Pirates have a better offensive option at catcher in Joey Bart, he’s not capable of catching Skenes. That’s something I’ve been told from people within the organization."
That seemed very surprising--anyone have any additional context for this?
Not capable? wtf? What happens when Bubba comes up?
Okay, Hiles added this in response to a comment about the original quote:
"The simple way to put it is this -- Skenes' stuff is really good. And when you have someone with that much velocity and break on the mound, you need an above average defender behind the plate. Being able to frame pitches on the corners and block pitches in the dirt is always important, and those tasks are much harder when the ball is coming in faster, with more spin. Can Bart physically catch Skenes? Yes. But his catching wouldn't get the most out of Skenes. A better defender maximizes what Skenes provides on the mound. And they're not in a position to lessen what he provides."
Well... if they would have done the sensible thing and gave Bart reps at 1B during spring training, there would have been playing time for Davis and would continue to be against left-handers through the whole season.
You’re missing the Piratethink element here. If he played a dozen games at first in ST, then he’d be too inexperienced to play there. But if he never played there before, we wouldn’t know how he’d do, so it’d be OK to play him there.
Yeah, I think it’s a good article but the author was a bit out over his skis when being so conclusory when it came to David and TJ.
The Fangraphs hate for Johnson is annoying and a discredit to them. I am not sure what they expect, but the guy is doing fine at Altoona.
These are guys who now flatly refer to KG as a center fielder, so consider the source.
I love when you get so butthurt it blinds you.
Yeah Fangraphs is not the Bible of Baseball and not even what it once was.
"Griffin was the shortstop for his 6A State Champion high school team in Mississippi but was a little too stiff to play there on the showcase circuit. He mostly played right field with Team USA and at select events because his feel for the outfield wasn’t as polished as his more experienced peers, who were more seaworthy in center field."
That's the totality of comment FanGraphs has ever made about Konnor Griffin at SS, followed by absolutely effusive praise over his undeniable CF traits. Traits our own Anthony Murphy just corroborated. Nothing that said Griffin "can't" play SS. Nothing that said he can't get better. Nothing that even said the Pirates shouldn't play him there.
*This* is what's pushing you guys to display your own inferiority complex? You can just not.
it's funny to me. I get the "eye test" eval. he's rarely that type of stud prospect who jumps out as the best player on the field.
but they're supposed to be the stat nerds and he's the best 20 yo in the Eastern League, maybe all of AA.
By my eye he's showing noticeable growth in approach and contact. He's hitting the ball to left more often, strikeouts keep lowering, just needs the power to start showing up and finding the gaps more often. I really think he has attempted a few bunts for hits to alter the positioning of the left side of the infield.
I noticed that he's 9th in the Eastern League in BB/K ratio, 10th in K%, yet also 24th in SLG despite being the youngest player with enough PAs to qualify for the leaderboard (which lists 75 players). That combination seems impressive for someone so young.
well said.
Barco leaves in the 1st with an apparent injury.
Arm or something else?
Too soon to tell, but looked like throwing arm. After the last pitch he threw, he kept it awkwardly at a 90 degree angle and seemed to be flexing his grip until he walked off the field.
I don’t believe this.
I didn't take notice until the trainer and manager went to the mound, but the facial expressions/body language was concerning.
We just cannot have nice things.
FFS
I knew you'd be the first post. Not good news.
oh man...
Nice game from Billy Cook yesterday. 4-5 and a steal. Hopefully this is the start of something for him.
The Billy Cook Fan Club approves!
Solak up to .394. That has to force Cherington's hand at some point.
When they put Enmanuel Valdez on the 60 day IL, to me that would have opened the door for him. Instead they picked up Michael Helman.
Bring out the Helman’s and bring out the best!
I'm not sure this one isn't past the expiration date. :)
Seriously, I have no clue.
Helmans got options and I see it (hopefully) as backfilling when someone is promoted
I do as well, but by backfilling that fills up the 40 man, without having Solak on it. if they were serious about bringing Solak up in the near future, they either a) are ready to cut someone off the 40 man or b) they wouldn't have signed Helman.
Just added another RBI single to start his day.
3 hits so far today