Key is too good? At what? He used to be great at defense… He has never put together a full season of good hitting in 4 years. He is not good at staying healthy…
Not sure what the issue(s) have been in 2024, but where the difference between last year and this year is most obvious is in the number of Extra Base Hits - in 2023 in 494 AB he posted 53 EBH - 31 doubles, 7 triples, and 15 HR. This year in 341 AB he has only posted 13 EBH - 9 doubles, 4 HR. If he could stay hot through the next few months, he can help this team stay close enough to be relevant. This Pirates team needs him.
Yeah feels like theres a chance hes trying to be 'the guy' which is clearly not working. Im under no illusion that hes some great hitter, but its definitely much better than weve seen
Going yard? I don't see that at all in his swing. It's usually the opposite from going yard swing, that cut across the ball swing as it gets deep on the plate and flick a single or groundout to the right side. If he adjusts and tries to pull the ball, we would definitely see his OPS rise......but I
think the former is just too engrained for significant change to be made.
As I posted elsewhere but I'll add here.. I don't think Key is 'too good' (ie. his career track record has too many hitting downs as well as some intriguing ups) for me to think this is real until it is a LONG run of success. I'll be hopeful and hope he made a change and end it at that so I don't just retype what is below.
Prior to this season, Hayes has been worth 10 fWAR in less than 400 games. That’s what I’m talking about when I say he’s too good. This season is the outlier.
I'd say his glove was that good.. while this has been his worst hitting year it has been incredibly bad which to me creates concern as too a bigger issue. ie. is his bat a fraction slower and not recoverable? (total theory - not data backed). I am fully in wait and see mode.
I’m seeing small signs of life that the bat isn’t slow. Obviously the HR last night and the 2 he just missed vs SD. He’s got 6 weeks left to show us something
This back thingy is tough on me in terms of how to view him, is it "chronic"?? I was just hoping he needed to be shut down early (my running mantra on half the team🤣) and go to some serious 'core' strength work... If it is "chronic", then Im changing my view on him...
At some point, maybe two more starts for Skenes and 3 more for Keller, we finish year with a core rotation of Ortiz, Falter, Woodford, Marco and a few starts each for Jones(maybe 2 max for Jones) and some feel good upcoming kids...we are close to that, right?
Let’s just shut them down forever and then they will never hurt their arms. The corporate uber-caution on arms is completely counterintuitive because loads of guys keep going down despite the cautious approach. The fact is we see so many guys pitching 95 mph and above that the simple answer maybe when you throw really hard you eventually hurt your arm. It used to be rare and something special to see someone hit 100 mph, now it happens just about every series and sometimes with multiple guys. Throw hard-hurt your arm, so give up on limiting innings and see what happens with each guy, cause limiting innings ain’t working and it betrays true competition.
I’m kinda getting to that point. Pitchers get hurt…in other news, gravity. That doesn’t mean I’m advocating for Skenes to be at 130 pitches per outing. But the Ubercautious approach doesn’t seem to mitigate much either.
To me this is the great unknown.... maybe the ubercautious result has helped but with everybody trying to throw 100 there would actually be even more injuries. Is some team bold and just go back to the 60s methodology? I truly am not arguing just to argue. We just won't know until some egghead figures out how to properly measure arm shape, ligament initial strength (from age 5 ??? to exaggerate my point), arm angle, leg strength, pitching form, types of pitches thrown, pitches under stress?, time between pitches, time off, genetics..... The list is long IMO. I am not saying all of these have merit but might they? Right now it is one method fits all. ... How do you compare a Nolan Ryan body shape to Maddux to Moyer etc.
I don't think I agree especially with Keller. I think they just stick to 'the plan'. I don't know if adding 20 - 30% more innings a year actually works but that seems to be what most MLB teams do today. If we can dream of Skenes/Keller pitching into October next year, why not see how they close the year? Keller has already shown to be a full year starting pitcher, why change now? Obviously as the season continues as it is, any hang nail, 'boo boo', or other small injury would trigger more caution than if they were in a playoff push.
Im doing everything in my little brain to keep wear and tear off our future difference makers regardless of there previous history or my irrational fears
I get that and understood that was your reasoning but might pushing their innings also help? It is the mystery of what really helps / hurts pitchers that nobody clearly knows IMO.
Ke'Bryan Hayes numbers in August .333/.379/.444/.823 OPS? That HR put him into the .600's for an OPS on the year. Do the Pirates try to get him more involved with the offense and hopefully his hot streak will continue?
Any hot streak by somebody under contract in 2025 is good whether it is Jack in AAA (not happening yet), Hank, or Hayes but it is WAY WAY to early to make it change the narrative IMO. He has had a terrible (being kind) year documented here WAY TOO OFTEN as we all know, but it is the facts. Let him have a hot August and September and hopefully he (we don't have to know) understands what change was made so that it is real not just a hot run or lucky run. I'll always hope but I need a lot more evidence. TBH.. I personally don't see the Pirates (insert GM joke here for those who always feel the need) changing their 3B plans for next year no matter how he closes out the year other than maybe keeping an IKF as a backup plan.
Yep. And it’s not as if he ever lit the world on fire offensively (other than his 2020) at any point to begin with. Every hot streak or stretch, people get excited or hopeful with him. I was last year, especially with how he ended. Any offense is a bonus from him, but I’m pretty much done expecting him to be anything other than a 90-95 wRC+ guy, tops.
This was posted(I think WTM) within the last week so please re-post. Can somebody post the actual control that the Pirate have over Skenes with and without Rookie of Year voting adjustments? ie. how many pre-arb then arb years in each scenario with really the result of what year would he be a pure free agent. I'm not trying to trigger a debate because whether Ben is fired tomorrow or never or whether Skenes signs an extension (I personally think no way), this is an important data point.
If he finishes top 2 in ROY, then he earns a full year of service for '24 meaning that he'll be under control for five more years with the final three of those years being arb years.
If he doesn't finish top 2 ROY, then he'll be under control for six more years with the last four of those years being arb years due to earning Super Two from his call up in early May.
And of course I'm rooting for Skenes every outing (probably wouldn't have made it through five last night if he wasn't pitching), but it could actually be better if he has some struggles down the stretch as long as he stays healthy. Some struggles would
1. Give him valuable information about things to work on in the offseason;
2. Tone down some of the hype for a more realistic view of '25, including what expectations we set for guys like Chandler and Harrington;
3. Knock him out of top 2 contention for ROY.
Again, I'm not rooting for this but noting the silver-lining to any struggles or even so-so outings like last night.
It's good to have to work at the game and we should be thankful he started as well as he has. The only question for the Pirates is how long do they keep him? Keller, Jones, and Skenes will make things a lot easier for the next two parts of the Rotation - right now that looks like Thomas Harrington and Bubba Chandler.
Maybe Jones can finish strong and Skenes and Jones finish 1, 2 in the ROY Voting!!!
I look at it a little different regarding next man up for the 4th and 5th spots. Outside of crushing AAA to close the year, I can see a 4 man race/ competition between Bubba, Harrington, Ashcraft, and Burrows to claim those spots at some point and that would be the ideal situation. For now, pending collapses (the players not the team record) it seems to me Falter and Ortiz would have significant inside tracks on those spots to start the year. I'd love to have one of those 4 crush Aug, Sep and spring training but fortunately for the Pirates those 4 would merit the spot and not be pushed out of need.
I’d want at least one of those four in the pen, probably two. Ashcraft and Burrows are the most likely. If they go into next year with the same five they have now, they’ll also have Bubba and Oviedo in the wings in some form. An alternative is also to get another SP outside and shift Ortiz to the pen as well (depending on how he finishes the last 7 weeks.
This makes the most sense to me. I'm also not against them keeping Ortiz in the rotation and offering him in the trade market. Either way they should sign a similar SP/RP like Ortiz to help the entire staff. I do agree though, that outside of one possible swingman, the only pitching they need to find in the offseason, should be RP. Rest of cash to OF/1B.
In many ways I think #2 while not officially Skenes related is key. Skenes is a unicorn and the type of stud needed (hello Drabek and Bonds) if you want to win. But assuming others will not only advance as fast but succeed at MLB as fast is misguided. Bubba has electric stuff so it is easier to dream on a fast rise, but he needs to crush (IMO) AAA for the rest of this season to really be more than a later in 2025 arrival assuming he excels early in 2025. Some big assumptions there.
Nice seeing Key getting hot. He just missed a couple down the line in PNC, he’s too good and he’ll finish strong.
Edward DLC has been worth -0.6 fWAR. Think he’s pressing just a little bit? That’s historically bad
Key is too good? At what? He used to be great at defense… He has never put together a full season of good hitting in 4 years. He is not good at staying healthy…
Not sure what the issue(s) have been in 2024, but where the difference between last year and this year is most obvious is in the number of Extra Base Hits - in 2023 in 494 AB he posted 53 EBH - 31 doubles, 7 triples, and 15 HR. This year in 341 AB he has only posted 13 EBH - 9 doubles, 4 HR. If he could stay hot through the next few months, he can help this team stay close enough to be relevant. This Pirates team needs him.
Man, RF has been a clown car for a couple of years.
I’ve really wanted them to acquire/draft/sign/anything a power hitting outfielder and when they do it’s BDLC. Sigh.
Yeah feels like theres a chance hes trying to be 'the guy' which is clearly not working. Im under no illusion that hes some great hitter, but its definitely much better than weve seen
He’s up there trying to go yard and it’s yielded a 40% k rate. He needs to relax. Maybe a day or 2 off would help
Going yard? I don't see that at all in his swing. It's usually the opposite from going yard swing, that cut across the ball swing as it gets deep on the plate and flick a single or groundout to the right side. If he adjusts and tries to pull the ball, we would definitely see his OPS rise......but I
think the former is just too engrained for significant change to be made.
That's everyone in the lineup for most of the year. They all just need a new direction. I hope this leads to some coaching changes.
As I posted elsewhere but I'll add here.. I don't think Key is 'too good' (ie. his career track record has too many hitting downs as well as some intriguing ups) for me to think this is real until it is a LONG run of success. I'll be hopeful and hope he made a change and end it at that so I don't just retype what is below.
Prior to this season, Hayes has been worth 10 fWAR in less than 400 games. That’s what I’m talking about when I say he’s too good. This season is the outlier.
I'd say his glove was that good.. while this has been his worst hitting year it has been incredibly bad which to me creates concern as too a bigger issue. ie. is his bat a fraction slower and not recoverable? (total theory - not data backed). I am fully in wait and see mode.
I’m seeing small signs of life that the bat isn’t slow. Obviously the HR last night and the 2 he just missed vs SD. He’s got 6 weeks left to show us something
I’m getting Adam LaRoche vibes from him. Doesn’t hit well until the season is in the crapper.
Maybe he needs to be turned into the Super U guy and IKF be turned into the everyday 3B? Might be good for his chronic bad back to play less, too.
This back thingy is tough on me in terms of how to view him, is it "chronic"?? I was just hoping he needed to be shut down early (my running mantra on half the team🤣) and go to some serious 'core' strength work... If it is "chronic", then Im changing my view on him...
At some point, maybe two more starts for Skenes and 3 more for Keller, we finish year with a core rotation of Ortiz, Falter, Woodford, Marco and a few starts each for Jones(maybe 2 max for Jones) and some feel good upcoming kids...we are close to that, right?
Let’s just shut them down forever and then they will never hurt their arms. The corporate uber-caution on arms is completely counterintuitive because loads of guys keep going down despite the cautious approach. The fact is we see so many guys pitching 95 mph and above that the simple answer maybe when you throw really hard you eventually hurt your arm. It used to be rare and something special to see someone hit 100 mph, now it happens just about every series and sometimes with multiple guys. Throw hard-hurt your arm, so give up on limiting innings and see what happens with each guy, cause limiting innings ain’t working and it betrays true competition.
I’m kinda getting to that point. Pitchers get hurt…in other news, gravity. That doesn’t mean I’m advocating for Skenes to be at 130 pitches per outing. But the Ubercautious approach doesn’t seem to mitigate much either.
The pitch count per outing makes some sense to me, but not so much the overall innings.
To me this is the great unknown.... maybe the ubercautious result has helped but with everybody trying to throw 100 there would actually be even more injuries. Is some team bold and just go back to the 60s methodology? I truly am not arguing just to argue. We just won't know until some egghead figures out how to properly measure arm shape, ligament initial strength (from age 5 ??? to exaggerate my point), arm angle, leg strength, pitching form, types of pitches thrown, pitches under stress?, time between pitches, time off, genetics..... The list is long IMO. I am not saying all of these have merit but might they? Right now it is one method fits all. ... How do you compare a Nolan Ryan body shape to Maddux to Moyer etc.
I don't think I agree especially with Keller. I think they just stick to 'the plan'. I don't know if adding 20 - 30% more innings a year actually works but that seems to be what most MLB teams do today. If we can dream of Skenes/Keller pitching into October next year, why not see how they close the year? Keller has already shown to be a full year starting pitcher, why change now? Obviously as the season continues as it is, any hang nail, 'boo boo', or other small injury would trigger more caution than if they were in a playoff push.
Im doing everything in my little brain to keep wear and tear off our future difference makers regardless of there previous history or my irrational fears
I get that and understood that was your reasoning but might pushing their innings also help? It is the mystery of what really helps / hurts pitchers that nobody clearly knows IMO.
I know, ive just always been in the camp of if you can limit worthless innings on known commodities you do it...
Im a shut them down guy, as well as I dont care about how many more innings they pitch yr over yr, im confusing, just like the evidence on injuries🤣🤣
Ke'Bryan Hayes numbers in August .333/.379/.444/.823 OPS? That HR put him into the .600's for an OPS on the year. Do the Pirates try to get him more involved with the offense and hopefully his hot streak will continue?
Get him more involved in the offense? The hell does that mean? This ain’t football.
I thought the same but didn't know how to incorporate it into my novel of a response.
Don’t worry SB, I got ya!
Any hot streak by somebody under contract in 2025 is good whether it is Jack in AAA (not happening yet), Hank, or Hayes but it is WAY WAY to early to make it change the narrative IMO. He has had a terrible (being kind) year documented here WAY TOO OFTEN as we all know, but it is the facts. Let him have a hot August and September and hopefully he (we don't have to know) understands what change was made so that it is real not just a hot run or lucky run. I'll always hope but I need a lot more evidence. TBH.. I personally don't see the Pirates (insert GM joke here for those who always feel the need) changing their 3B plans for next year no matter how he closes out the year other than maybe keeping an IKF as a backup plan.
I’m fine with it as long and Hayes is batting 9th and there aren’t four guys in front of him with ops under .600
Yep. And it’s not as if he ever lit the world on fire offensively (other than his 2020) at any point to begin with. Every hot streak or stretch, people get excited or hopeful with him. I was last year, especially with how he ended. Any offense is a bonus from him, but I’m pretty much done expecting him to be anything other than a 90-95 wRC+ guy, tops.
I'm in this camp... Hayes opens camp in 'pole' position, hope he makes us proud thereafter🤞🤷♂️🤞
This was posted(I think WTM) within the last week so please re-post. Can somebody post the actual control that the Pirate have over Skenes with and without Rookie of Year voting adjustments? ie. how many pre-arb then arb years in each scenario with really the result of what year would he be a pure free agent. I'm not trying to trigger a debate because whether Ben is fired tomorrow or never or whether Skenes signs an extension (I personally think no way), this is an important data point.
I'm pretty sure this is it:
If he finishes top 2 in ROY, then he earns a full year of service for '24 meaning that he'll be under control for five more years with the final three of those years being arb years.
If he doesn't finish top 2 ROY, then he'll be under control for six more years with the last four of those years being arb years due to earning Super Two from his call up in early May.
Thank you!! So free agency in 2030 or 2031.
Yes, he'll either be a FA prior to '30 or '31.
And of course I'm rooting for Skenes every outing (probably wouldn't have made it through five last night if he wasn't pitching), but it could actually be better if he has some struggles down the stretch as long as he stays healthy. Some struggles would
1. Give him valuable information about things to work on in the offseason;
2. Tone down some of the hype for a more realistic view of '25, including what expectations we set for guys like Chandler and Harrington;
3. Knock him out of top 2 contention for ROY.
Again, I'm not rooting for this but noting the silver-lining to any struggles or even so-so outings like last night.
I hope he wins ROY. That’s the only scenario where I could see the Pirates come to him with an extension for 7-8 years after this season is over.
It's good to have to work at the game and we should be thankful he started as well as he has. The only question for the Pirates is how long do they keep him? Keller, Jones, and Skenes will make things a lot easier for the next two parts of the Rotation - right now that looks like Thomas Harrington and Bubba Chandler.
Maybe Jones can finish strong and Skenes and Jones finish 1, 2 in the ROY Voting!!!
I look at it a little different regarding next man up for the 4th and 5th spots. Outside of crushing AAA to close the year, I can see a 4 man race/ competition between Bubba, Harrington, Ashcraft, and Burrows to claim those spots at some point and that would be the ideal situation. For now, pending collapses (the players not the team record) it seems to me Falter and Ortiz would have significant inside tracks on those spots to start the year. I'd love to have one of those 4 crush Aug, Sep and spring training but fortunately for the Pirates those 4 would merit the spot and not be pushed out of need.
I’d want at least one of those four in the pen, probably two. Ashcraft and Burrows are the most likely. If they go into next year with the same five they have now, they’ll also have Bubba and Oviedo in the wings in some form. An alternative is also to get another SP outside and shift Ortiz to the pen as well (depending on how he finishes the last 7 weeks.
This makes the most sense to me. I'm also not against them keeping Ortiz in the rotation and offering him in the trade market. Either way they should sign a similar SP/RP like Ortiz to help the entire staff. I do agree though, that outside of one possible swingman, the only pitching they need to find in the offseason, should be RP. Rest of cash to OF/1B.
In many ways I think #2 while not officially Skenes related is key. Skenes is a unicorn and the type of stud needed (hello Drabek and Bonds) if you want to win. But assuming others will not only advance as fast but succeed at MLB as fast is misguided. Bubba has electric stuff so it is easier to dream on a fast rise, but he needs to crush (IMO) AAA for the rest of this season to really be more than a later in 2025 arrival assuming he excels early in 2025. Some big assumptions there.
Dog days of August…