FG has opened a new “We Tried” Tracker, where teams state they have interest in a player after he’s signed elsewhere. I expect the Bucs to show up there several times.
The salience of Rule 5 should probably be even further reduced given the downturn in minor league ball across the board, shouldn't it?
There's pretty good consensus from people who follow such things that the current state of minor league ball has hit a lull in both talent and quality of play. Rosters have also been reduced to the point where there's simply less fringey prospects, in absolute terms, while the number of 40 and 25-man slots has remained the same.
That probably should mean the players left unprotected are even less likely to actually matter.
Anecdotal, sure, but two Pirate prospects who barely register on the pulse of the organization making BA's initial list of top available players sure seems to illustrate the point.
The curse of being a Pirate fan may not show itself any more clearly than in this Sammy Siani discussion.
Those arguing he should be rostered on account of minor improvements and open slots appear completely oblivious to the fact that it's perfectly legal to fill those slots with better players than Sammy Siani, of which many, many, mannnnyyyyy exist.
True and of those many, many, mannyy in existence, none are outfielders in the pirates system. I don't think protecting Siani or not is a big deal but the lack of acquiring the better players is. I leaned to protecting Siani because the lack of any real prospects at the double and triple A levels. By no means am I arguing with your statement but think the pirates need to be more proactive in acquiring better players at the mlb level as well as depth in the upper levels of the minors. The only area they are not lacking (offensive side) is players that can be removed from the 40 man. The areas for need is offense and bullpen.
Ahh, the good old cutoff half the post to misrepresent my statement tactic. You ignored the part where I said I was agnostic on the matter and acknowledged that he likely won’t amount to anything. That's not really much of an argument in favor of it, as the original post predicated?
My agnosticism is a result of me recognizing that even if you do roster him, due to the lack of OF depth i mentioned, you're inevitably signing/trading for someone else who is more interesting than him and he ends up bumped off the roster anyways.
The takes in here are getting more and more bizarre. Every year there is a player that they feel needs protected...last year I think it was the fear of losing Jase Bowen.
I'll guess Siani gets selected but eventually offered back as the jump from AA to MLB will be too large. I just figure someone like the White Sox have nothing to lose, though I don't know what other OFs may be available and more attractive to them.
Agree. It’s a strange rule 5 year due to the 2020 draft, and you do have some awful teams, Rockies as well, who figure to have roster spots to burn. Hard to say how’d they line up Siani with what else is out there though. To your point about the White Sox having nothing to lose, I could see them grabbing multiple guys like the 2017 Orioles.
According to the BBWAA, in the NL Manager of the Year voting eight Managers received votes - Top 5 were Murphy, Shildt, Mendoza, Lovullo, Thompson, and Snitker, Roberts, and Marmol also received votes. There's a few long timer's in there, but many are in their first few years of being a Manager - it can happen!
If the Pirates find 3 or 4 more hitters who can impact the offense the way the Pitching was influenced by Paul Skenes and Jared Jones in 2024, I like Shelton's chances of getting a vote in the next few years - I guess he's on a year-to-year basis now - is that how the contract was written - 4 years and then year to year thereafter? Mr. 415!
We do not need to protect players who may have shown that they have found something. When we are absolutely sure of their abilities, we will act.
Sammy Siani, IMO, showed enough improvement at the plate in 2024 to go along with his plus defense as an outfielder, to be protected by the Pirates. A smart team will pick him up. His improvement could be identified in his BB/K percentages in A+ in 2023 and AA in 2024. In 2023, 398 PA at A+ Siani had a 12.8% BB rate/31.7% K rate; in 2024, 394 PA at AA Siani had an 8.9% BB rate/20.6% K rate. He took that to the AFL and continued to improve, with an OPS of 1.007, 6th best in the AFL, and being named to the All AFL Team.
Protecting him would have been recognition by the Pirates, but it should not be a surprise that we did not take advantage of that improvement and think that he may get even better in 2025 at AAA, and be a possibility for MLB.
I’d have leaned towards protecting him just because of the lack of outfield depth, but I’m also somewhat agnostic on the matter as I recognize the odds of a player with his skill set becoming a valuable contributor are fairly slim. I’m more interested to see what they do with the open roster spots now.
He may become a contributor at the major-league level, but the jump from A-ball straight to the Show is too much, especially for a guy with less than elite talent who may be starting finally the process of putting it all together. It is not that he is doomed to fail forever. It is just that he is not ready to play major-league ball right now, and he will almost certainly fail to establish himself in the majors at this point. After some time in the upper minors, he may be able to do so.
Since they had a couple roster spots available I would not have been outraged had they added him, but I'm not outraged that they didn't, either. A guy with a sub .700 OPS at AA with no ABs at AAA is highly unlikely to be selected, regardless of the improvements you listed.
I will be more outraged if they select someone. This should be a team looking to add a couple real ML bats, not AA/AAA/AAAA guys they need to hide on the 26 man all year...
Everything that involves the Rule 5 is something that I've become less and less and less concerned with over the years. Sure, I'd still love to have my boi Blake Sabol, but all-in-all, across all of baseball the Rule 5 draft seems to be one area that is discussed at a much higher sense of magnitude than it really is. If they add someone, cool. If they lose someone, cool. Honestly the part I'd be concerned about is if they had a similar year to where they lost like 15 players (I'll have to be checked on that) in the second portion of the draft.
I dream of a day when Pirates fans are looked at by the national media as being too good not to lose talent in these Rule 5 drafts. Sadly, I doubt that day arrives with this regime.
Roster is at 38 right now, let's trim a few more by Friday non-tender deadline. Good to see BC pass on
protecting anyone. Let's get down to 35 and then start the Christmas shopping.
The Rays are retooling even more than usual this winter and have three 8-figure guaranteed contracts on the books.
Either Yandy Diaz or Brandon Lowe would sure seem to be easy targets.
FG has opened a new “We Tried” Tracker, where teams state they have interest in a player after he’s signed elsewhere. I expect the Bucs to show up there several times.
Will Bednar and Austin Hendrick left unprotected. B-Mac is salivating…
WILL BEDNAR
You made me look at Hendrick lol… but boy that K rate and ISO… woof.
The salience of Rule 5 should probably be even further reduced given the downturn in minor league ball across the board, shouldn't it?
There's pretty good consensus from people who follow such things that the current state of minor league ball has hit a lull in both talent and quality of play. Rosters have also been reduced to the point where there's simply less fringey prospects, in absolute terms, while the number of 40 and 25-man slots has remained the same.
That probably should mean the players left unprotected are even less likely to actually matter.
Anecdotal, sure, but two Pirate prospects who barely register on the pulse of the organization making BA's initial list of top available players sure seems to illustrate the point.
The curse of being a Pirate fan may not show itself any more clearly than in this Sammy Siani discussion.
Those arguing he should be rostered on account of minor improvements and open slots appear completely oblivious to the fact that it's perfectly legal to fill those slots with better players than Sammy Siani, of which many, many, mannnnyyyyy exist.
True and of those many, many, mannyy in existence, none are outfielders in the pirates system. I don't think protecting Siani or not is a big deal but the lack of acquiring the better players is. I leaned to protecting Siani because the lack of any real prospects at the double and triple A levels. By no means am I arguing with your statement but think the pirates need to be more proactive in acquiring better players at the mlb level as well as depth in the upper levels of the minors. The only area they are not lacking (offensive side) is players that can be removed from the 40 man. The areas for need is offense and bullpen.
Is there really a bunch of people making that argument? There’s literally one in this thread, and I haven’t seen many in the others either.
Okay?
That's got absolutely nothing to do with my comment but enjoy arguing against a position you completely made up in your head.
Ok. I suppose I misunderstood you to mean that there was a bunch of people arguing for rostering Sammy Siani.
Correct and you are one of them...
"I’d have leaned towards protecting him"
Ahh, the good old cutoff half the post to misrepresent my statement tactic. You ignored the part where I said I was agnostic on the matter and acknowledged that he likely won’t amount to anything. That's not really much of an argument in favor of it, as the original post predicated?
My agnosticism is a result of me recognizing that even if you do roster him, due to the lack of OF depth i mentioned, you're inevitably signing/trading for someone else who is more interesting than him and he ends up bumped off the roster anyways.
Hope I cleared that up for you.
my god.
you said you would protect him. doesn't matter if you're skeptical of the player. bottom line is you said you would protect him.
The takes in here are getting more and more bizarre. Every year there is a player that they feel needs protected...last year I think it was the fear of losing Jase Bowen.
When given nothing else to chew on, we'll cling to whatever is left on the bone.
I'll guess Siani gets selected but eventually offered back as the jump from AA to MLB will be too large. I just figure someone like the White Sox have nothing to lose, though I don't know what other OFs may be available and more attractive to them.
Agree. It’s a strange rule 5 year due to the 2020 draft, and you do have some awful teams, Rockies as well, who figure to have roster spots to burn. Hard to say how’d they line up Siani with what else is out there though. To your point about the White Sox having nothing to lose, I could see them grabbing multiple guys like the 2017 Orioles.
Alfonzo and Siani both mentioned on BA as some of the ‘top players’ available in Rule 5
Mentioned Alfonzo unlikely to get taken though
According to the BBWAA, in the NL Manager of the Year voting eight Managers received votes - Top 5 were Murphy, Shildt, Mendoza, Lovullo, Thompson, and Snitker, Roberts, and Marmol also received votes. There's a few long timer's in there, but many are in their first few years of being a Manager - it can happen!
If the Pirates find 3 or 4 more hitters who can impact the offense the way the Pitching was influenced by Paul Skenes and Jared Jones in 2024, I like Shelton's chances of getting a vote in the next few years - I guess he's on a year-to-year basis now - is that how the contract was written - 4 years and then year to year thereafter? Mr. 415!
If we can only find half a lineup, we’ll be good!
We do not need to protect players who may have shown that they have found something. When we are absolutely sure of their abilities, we will act.
Sammy Siani, IMO, showed enough improvement at the plate in 2024 to go along with his plus defense as an outfielder, to be protected by the Pirates. A smart team will pick him up. His improvement could be identified in his BB/K percentages in A+ in 2023 and AA in 2024. In 2023, 398 PA at A+ Siani had a 12.8% BB rate/31.7% K rate; in 2024, 394 PA at AA Siani had an 8.9% BB rate/20.6% K rate. He took that to the AFL and continued to improve, with an OPS of 1.007, 6th best in the AFL, and being named to the All AFL Team.
Protecting him would have been recognition by the Pirates, but it should not be a surprise that we did not take advantage of that improvement and think that he may get even better in 2025 at AAA, and be a possibility for MLB.
I’d have leaned towards protecting him just because of the lack of outfield depth, but I’m also somewhat agnostic on the matter as I recognize the odds of a player with his skill set becoming a valuable contributor are fairly slim. I’m more interested to see what they do with the open roster spots now.
He may become a contributor at the major-league level, but the jump from A-ball straight to the Show is too much, especially for a guy with less than elite talent who may be starting finally the process of putting it all together. It is not that he is doomed to fail forever. It is just that he is not ready to play major-league ball right now, and he will almost certainly fail to establish himself in the majors at this point. After some time in the upper minors, he may be able to do so.
Since they had a couple roster spots available I would not have been outraged had they added him, but I'm not outraged that they didn't, either. A guy with a sub .700 OPS at AA with no ABs at AAA is highly unlikely to be selected, regardless of the improvements you listed.
I will be more outraged if they select someone. This should be a team looking to add a couple real ML bats, not AA/AAA/AAAA guys they need to hide on the 26 man all year...
Pretty substantial sample of minor league play of him being incredibly average. The AFL shenanigans wouldn't even be a factor in the decision making.
If no team selects Sammy, does that mean all teams are dumb?
I'm guessing he does not get selected and will be playing for the Indianapolis Indians in '25
Everything that involves the Rule 5 is something that I've become less and less and less concerned with over the years. Sure, I'd still love to have my boi Blake Sabol, but all-in-all, across all of baseball the Rule 5 draft seems to be one area that is discussed at a much higher sense of magnitude than it really is. If they add someone, cool. If they lose someone, cool. Honestly the part I'd be concerned about is if they had a similar year to where they lost like 15 players (I'll have to be checked on that) in the second portion of the draft.
I dream of a day when Pirates fans are looked at by the national media as being too good not to lose talent in these Rule 5 drafts. Sadly, I doubt that day arrives with this regime.
Yeah, we'll know we're in a good place when they essentially have to trade a Jose Siri to make space.