they are trying to find out how many people say they are not satisfied with the direction of the team yet will still be planning to go to the ballpark this summer
that survey documents stats to back it up that fans will still spend money no matter how bad things get with the roster
Can’t imagine how these idiots think fans are reacting to them punting this offseason. It’s clear BC thinks the fans are morons, but nobody could be fooled by them cutting payroll while even Tampa and Oakland are spending. Do they think all they have to do is yell, “Skenes, Skenes, Skenes?” Or that the fans will get distracted by a wave of Adam Frazier nostalgia?
Big-market Royals sign Carlos Estevez for 2/22. It's just not fair for Nuttin to have to compete with these teams that are swimming in oceans of money.
That is a perfectly reasonable contract for Estevez. I am curious as to why the Pirates have done nothing after signing Ferguson to improve the roster. If there is money in the budget, and Cherington is waiting for some omen, he has, again, totally mismanaged the off-season. Estevez 2/22 is about as well as you can spend $11 million per season.
I would pay 1 year for $11 million, but not 2 years at $22 for Estevez. He had an outstanding 34 innings with the Angles last year, but at age 32 he still hasn't put 2 good consecutive years together yet. A lifetime ERA over 4 and whip of 1.36. I don't trust the guy.
He's been pretty much the same guy for 7 years running now with the exception of a bad 2020. Look at the data on Fangraphs. Remember that he was pitching in Colorado for most of the time. That will play havoc on top-line numbers for pitchers. He is sinker/slider guy who gets a lot of soft contact and groundball outs. He has a decent changeup so he does fine against left-handed batters. He is fine in almost any high-leverage situation and about as steady-Eddie as a bullpen guy can get.
For as a little of a difference and small amount they are talking about, why not make the guy feel important and tell him why he deserves the money? If he does become a solid arm in the future, how are you ever going to get a guy like this to stay part of our future?
On the one hand I agree that going to arbitration over $300K seems like it would do more harm than good. OTOH, that $300K might buy them another couple of analysts for the FO ;)
Actually, OTOH if, say, the Pirates offer a fair extension in the next year or so, I can't imagine this arb hearing and outcome would have any lingering effect.
Listened to an episode of the Foul Territory podcast and AJ and Kratz changed my perspective on the whole arbitration process. It’s basic negotiation, why would I accept the first deal when I have a chance to go to arbitration and make more? Do you think Oviedo is at home livid right now for not getting a raise after not playing at all last season?
Yeah. I have no problem with going to arbitration on a guy who missed the entire season. There are a lot of problems with the Pirates. Not overpaying for a guy who has played baseball in 18 months is not one of them.
We are looking at this from 2 different outlooks. What you are saying is not wrong, especially if it was for a recyclable player.
I like Oviedo more than most people and want him to be part of the future for more than another year or two. Paying a few extra pennies now might be a good investment in the long run. I guess (in my mind), this just says the Pirates don't plan on him being part of their long-term future.
I understand your feelings and I do like Oviedo, but I don’t really feel like it affects his long term future here tbh. They own his rights for the next three years I believe and he’ll be pushing 30 at that time. He’s coming off of a major arm surgery. A lot can happen in three years. If he turns into a solid rotation piece this season, I’m sure his arbitration numbers this time next year will reflect that.
I guess part of my frustration with the Pirates or baseball in general is the way pitchers are being used. The Pirates traded for Oviedo from St. Louis who was primarily a reliever. Oviedo's first full season with the Pirates they start him 32 times as he pitches 178 innings. That's 38 innings more than any pitcher on the 2024 world champion Dodgers pitched.
The Pirates get a 2.2 War out of him, which they don't have to pay for. Land him on the IL and use that against him to win their arbitration case. I like Oviedo because of his attitude and work ethic, but am really just venting. :)
I think they are just comfortable and confident in taking risk, but outside of his injury, Kim doesn’t offer a ton of risk. He’s got a solid floor as a player with some potential upside in the bat and with his legs.
So, despite stadium problems, low attendance, and playing in a division with the Yankees, Orioles, and Red Sox, they're spending money? Maybe it was that Junior Caminero HR the other night that muddled their thinking.
On the surface, this may look a bit rich, but Kim’s baseline WAR is probably mid- to high-2’s. Add a little more pop in the bat and swipe a few more bags, then you are approaching 4-WAR territory. I like the player, and I like the signing. This is how smart teams approach roster building.
Agreed. I thought I’d help you and try to look up an analogous free agent contract to get an idea of his value, but I went back to 2022 and didn’t love any of the comps. Most of the free agents were older than him, more inconsistent, more injury prone, or pitched better. The steady, plug and chug, 2-3 WAR guy isn’t reaching free agency at a young age. Maybe that should tell us something.
For a team like the Pirates, it should tell them that he has trade value. And, as this young team ages, that $15m to $20m per year would be better allocated to those younger players and/or potentially supporting cast members. I like Keller’s consistency, but he doesn’t provide nearly the upside for this contract to be worthwhile to hold to term. If he pops anything close to a 3-WAR season, I would be looking to move him immediately.
I have a hard time understanding all the nuances that go into the payroll figures, but between looking at Spotrac, BR and Fangraphs, it appears they have about $80ish million in commitments for this year, including this deal, assuming it’s spread equally between the two years. So less than us at the moment. They rely on cheap and cost controlled players, and that cost containment allows them to splurge on the occasional addition like this or Zack Eflin a few years back.
Yes the trades are part of the conveyor belt of cheap talent.
I’ve raised this before, but I wonder if one of the few things left for small markets to exploit is payroll flexibility?
Think about it, you don’t know your needs year to year, let alone 5 years from now. Good guys are always available on pillow deals. Is there an argument to run things lean so you can add externally to fill the holes that come up, which in this instance, happened by a guy being arrested?
This isn’t rocket science, but you also have to execute in multiple different facets of the process. The Pirates are absolutely horrible at asset management, their inability to get anywhere near max value out of players has greatly held this team back. It’s like they simultaneously suffer from both recency and loss aversion biases, among others. Players who have considerably outperformed do not typically reset their floors, they most likely just outperformed on a short term basis. The Rays are extremely adept at identifying this and extracting max value from these players on the trade market. They also haven’t been afraid to dip their toes into FA with multiyear deals and easily getting out of those contracts at a later date if need be. Unless there is an expectation that player salaries will decline, locking in multiple years at present value dollars is just another way to create additional value, all things being equal.
And that’s proven to work. But the second part of that (if you’re looking to stay somewhat competitive) is getting value for those expensive players in trades back and developing your own. Neither of which this FO has shown much aptitude for.
Me n my pirate ship have docked in French Pollyanna and even I can't find hope in this... And man, that's my super-power.
Looking at the numbers from '24 and projections for '25, Frazier is just Cutch without the power (and who can still field).
Maybe they're gonna use Fraz, a player I always loved, to DH for Cutch vs. righties. That the Pirates are such a deep team that they can afford a platoon at DH is... mysterious.
For some reason, over at FanGraphs, they're slightly optimistic on both:
Frazier: projected for '25 to hit .244 with a .306 on base percentage.
Fraz hit lefties last year at a .172 clip / righties at a .206.
Why they project that Fraz will hit 42 points higher this season must indicate some injury or aggression (opposite of regression) to his mean.
Cutch: projected for '25 to hit .230 with a .327 on base percentage.
Cutch hit lefties last year to the tune of .200... that's bad seeing as his career vs. lefties sits at .291... He used to demolish lefties.
Cutch hit right handers for a .244 average last season.
AS IS, I think the Bucs have enough to make the playoffs this year. Was doing a countdown to 82 last season and then gave up when the carrot patch went dry after the trade deadline.
I think the real team is somewhere between the fast start and the sudden capsizing of the ship last year. I THINK the pitching and defense are enough to get to a winning season. I THINK they have just enough offense to win most days with the pitching they're likely to have (which includes a big X factor in Chandler).
If the bullpen doesn't suck... And let's think of this in terms of the analytic brains they pinched from the Astros... If the bullpen is competent and the offense is competent, then we have matchups enough to get us to a Wild-Card playoff. That is the IF I am living with. But I still see no need to add Adam Frazier, a guy who I will root for regardless.
______________________________
“Well, what did you expect in an opera? A happy ending?”
I think Frazier is it. I can't see them adding another OF.I really don't see how he's any better than the in house options. Wasting a roster spot on him is foolish. This seems like a front office move to try and make some fans happy. Kind of like McCutchen (at least he had some value). Bring back a fan favorite, make a bobble head night for them and hope the casual fan is happy with it.
My biggest concern at this point is that they throw money at some rando outfielder to create the appearance of trying. Just roll with Suwinski/Palacios and Yorke/Cooke. That’s more interesting than watching an overpaid Adam Duvall struggle to a .680 OPS.
Take a look at Palacios’s Statcast from last year which was pretty solid, as well as OOPSY and Steamer have him at a .717 and .710 OPS. And those same projection systems have Suwinski at .714 and .738 OPS.
Grichuk is projected at .727 and .738.
Now if I’m a betting man, I like Grichuk’s odds of achieving those numbers a little better than Jack or Palacios, but with Yorke and Cook you have some backup in case one or both struggle.
Definitely some value against lefties, but the park factors would eat into some of his production here as well. I just think I’d just rather stick with what we have on hand and sign a solid reliever if any funds are still available.
I think they around $82M right now. I have heard from multiple reporters they are pushing $100M this year. That gives them $18M to play with. What reliever do you want?
Grichuk offers more floor for a team that has a lot of floor. And I have no reason to believe that the guys they have on the roster can’t offer what Grichuk does. They aren’t really fixing the offense with Grichuk, nor are there players left in FA who offer that. So assuming they have money left, maybe a reliever is the better place to spend it?
I kind of disagree unless your meaning of floor is well below replacement level. The only position player starters they have any floor are Reynolds and Cruz. Outside of those two, the position player group is a bunch of unprovens.
According to ZIPS, they have a robust collection of 1-3 WAR players around the diamond. That’s floor. The ceiling is non-existent, because aside from Cruz they don’t have anyone capable of putting up anything north of 4 WAR.
Just bc they have no ceiling doesn’t mean they have floor. 1 to 3 WAR is basically replacement to average. I don’t think that robust collection will be very robust when all is said and done. Almost none of those players have any real track record as full-time major league position players. It’s more likely that most will fail and few will reach their 1-3 WAR projection. I’m just hoping it doesn’t take the entire year for Cherington/Shelton to figure that out bc the roster is already filled with redundancy.
Not fixing but improving. He is great against lefties, he put up a 2 WAR season just mashing lefties last year and if Suwinski can put 1-2 WAR against righties that’s 3-4 win position. I think the $7-10M would be worth it.
I doubt they’ll pay him $7-$10 million. Just reality there.
And I get the idea, it’s a little more of a guarantee than what they have. But between Cutch, Cook, Yorke, Hank, and Triolo I think you have enough roster flexibility there to be solid against LHP at the corners.
Payroll scarcity factors in too. I just wonder if it’s the best use of the money given that they could probably use another semi-sure thing in the bullpen.
Agree with your last sentence, really just depends on the dollars and options available to improve the roster. Nevertheless, Grichuk would definitely improve this roster in a platoon roll.
What do you think he’d get? I think the bullpen is fine, especially with guys like Oviedo, Ashcraft and burrows who could help there. I think getting another starter at this point, with what’s left in FA, is the best option (Quintana, Heaney, or Gibson) all 2-3 win guys ~$10-12M. This allows you to use the guys above to help in the bullpen and I think these guys give you more wins than another bullpen arm or two. Add a starter with Grichuk that gets you to about $100M and I think makes your team deeper and better. I prefer cook, Yorke, and palacios to be depth this year not guys that have to work out. Also, Grichuk and Quintana improve the team by 3-4 wins I believe. A bullpen arm maybe 1-2 if you add one or two more.
Lol... they actually DFA'd someone who might be useful for someone who has exactly 0% chance of being a useful player. The people running this team all need to be fired yesterday.
Yes, thanks for sharing. Excellent article, and probably the first of many to address the concern that the Pirates aren't taking advantage of the Skenes' era. It's only been one year, but as Clemens points out, after this year we'll be 1/3 the way through his time with us and it doesn't look like we're "all-in" this year.
Thanks for sharing. I recommend that everyone read it. Agree with NMR's comment below regarding Frazier. I refuse to fool myself into believing that this can be a competitive team given the ownership constraints. It won't matter, but there will be national backlash over Nutting's refusal to add "substance" to this team. It won't matter, but I'll enjoy seeing it.
Exactly. The saddest aspect of this whole sordid affair is that Frazier is a highly likeable guy who is now going to be showered with boos as his OPS hovers around the .560 level for 3 months.
Philly. But I've been to Charleston River dog games with a larger crowd than PNC. Especially when Arod rehabbed there. Also ran into Bill Murray a few times.
Nutz wouldn't last an hour in those markets. I'm not even sure the papers would report on the Phillies signing Frazier. Maybe if it was April 1.
Damn transitions. He maybe the Lincoln to my Durden. Ya dig?
That article is far too deferential to both Frazier and Mayza. Frazier was so bad last year. This is 2018 Sean Rodriguez level bad. At least when they brought Rodriguez back from the Phils, they were not sure that his career was over. Frazier's career is over. He can't play MLB baseball any more, and the fact that this front office can't realize something that obvious is the most chilling aspect of this entire deal.
I agree, but it’s striking that he goes quite easy on them but still blisters the team.
If you want to get even more down on Frazier, check out Statcast. His speed and range have cratered over the last couple years. He’s past his sell-by date.
I watched him last year. He can't hit any more. The hand-eye and bat speed is just not there to handle major-league velocity. He is so geared up for fastballs, that he just flails at every secondary pitch. Even with gearing up for fastballs, he struggles with them as well. The Frazier we knew ate up fastballs and served them up beautifully into gaps in the OF and between IF and OF. That Frazier is gone.
For those scoring at home, the Reds (Burns, Lowder, Petty, Duno) and Brewers (Made, Pratt, Quero, Misiorowski) also have four. The Cubs have five (Shaw, Ballesteros, Alcantera, Caissie, and Horton) and the Cards have three (wetherholt, Matthews, Hence).
Edit: this was supposed to reply to my comment above so it made sense.
Second edit: the Dodgers have eight players on this list: Sasaki, Rushing, De Paula, Freeland, Hope, Morales, Ferris, and Ryan. This is what the Rays would look like if they had lots of money.
Take off Sasaki and it's still very impressive what the Dodgers are able to do when they're drafting near the back of the first round (and of course all the following rounds) and are subject to the same (actually more strict than some) international cap limits that other teams are.
Good for Kiley, keeping the faith in TJ (at least in terms of him being ranked higher than Griffin). I think that's right as we should all be very happy a couple of years from now if Griffin also makes it to AA by age 20.
More from "Baseball Wit and Wisdom" as I divert my attention thru travel to avoid stewing over the endless January:
"The manager's toughest job is not calling the right play with the bases full and the score tied in an extra inning game. It's telling a ballplayer that he's through, done, finished."
Frazier’s contract is low enough that cutting him or demoting him would not be an issue, shit he could even be cut before the start of the season. The issue is of course wasting their “limited” funds on him, but other than it’s not much to see here…….and true to form, I have to write this…..extend Frazier, extend Frazier!
How clueless are the Pirates? This clueless:
https://www.post-gazette.com/sports/pirates/2025/01/29/survey-nutting-cherington-mlb-offseason-spring-training/stories/202501290092
Enjoy the rest of your evening.
its a trick
they are trying to find out how many people say they are not satisfied with the direction of the team yet will still be planning to go to the ballpark this summer
that survey documents stats to back it up that fans will still spend money no matter how bad things get with the roster
Can’t imagine how these idiots think fans are reacting to them punting this offseason. It’s clear BC thinks the fans are morons, but nobody could be fooled by them cutting payroll while even Tampa and Oakland are spending. Do they think all they have to do is yell, “Skenes, Skenes, Skenes?” Or that the fans will get distracted by a wave of Adam Frazier nostalgia?
Big-market Royals sign Carlos Estevez for 2/22. It's just not fair for Nuttin to have to compete with these teams that are swimming in oceans of money.
That is a perfectly reasonable contract for Estevez. I am curious as to why the Pirates have done nothing after signing Ferguson to improve the roster. If there is money in the budget, and Cherington is waiting for some omen, he has, again, totally mismanaged the off-season. Estevez 2/22 is about as well as you can spend $11 million per season.
I would pay 1 year for $11 million, but not 2 years at $22 for Estevez. He had an outstanding 34 innings with the Angles last year, but at age 32 he still hasn't put 2 good consecutive years together yet. A lifetime ERA over 4 and whip of 1.36. I don't trust the guy.
He's been pretty much the same guy for 7 years running now with the exception of a bad 2020. Look at the data on Fangraphs. Remember that he was pitching in Colorado for most of the time. That will play havoc on top-line numbers for pitchers. He is sinker/slider guy who gets a lot of soft contact and groundball outs. He has a decent changeup so he does fine against left-handed batters. He is fine in almost any high-leverage situation and about as steady-Eddie as a bullpen guy can get.
Why wouldn't the simplest explanation begin with the acknowledgement that he clearly does not?
That "if" seems an awfully unearned assumption to impose on Bob Nutting's GM.
Because last year, he spent $16 million during spring training.
guarded optimism, i like it!
Took a few hours to let the latest shenanigans digest…
Instead of improving areas of need, we decide to improve on the 25th & 26th players on the roster.
Horwitz was a nice move as was Ferguson but the pirates next moves just feels wrong
As a youngster, I remember the excitement of opening gifts. Yesterday was the same feeling as the times when I just got clothes.
Pirates win their arb hearing over Oviedo.
See, Nuttin DOES care about winning!
For as a little of a difference and small amount they are talking about, why not make the guy feel important and tell him why he deserves the money? If he does become a solid arm in the future, how are you ever going to get a guy like this to stay part of our future?
On the one hand I agree that going to arbitration over $300K seems like it would do more harm than good. OTOH, that $300K might buy them another couple of analysts for the FO ;)
Actually, OTOH if, say, the Pirates offer a fair extension in the next year or so, I can't imagine this arb hearing and outcome would have any lingering effect.
Listened to an episode of the Foul Territory podcast and AJ and Kratz changed my perspective on the whole arbitration process. It’s basic negotiation, why would I accept the first deal when I have a chance to go to arbitration and make more? Do you think Oviedo is at home livid right now for not getting a raise after not playing at all last season?
Yeah. I have no problem with going to arbitration on a guy who missed the entire season. There are a lot of problems with the Pirates. Not overpaying for a guy who has played baseball in 18 months is not one of them.
We are looking at this from 2 different outlooks. What you are saying is not wrong, especially if it was for a recyclable player.
I like Oviedo more than most people and want him to be part of the future for more than another year or two. Paying a few extra pennies now might be a good investment in the long run. I guess (in my mind), this just says the Pirates don't plan on him being part of their long-term future.
I understand your feelings and I do like Oviedo, but I don’t really feel like it affects his long term future here tbh. They own his rights for the next three years I believe and he’ll be pushing 30 at that time. He’s coming off of a major arm surgery. A lot can happen in three years. If he turns into a solid rotation piece this season, I’m sure his arbitration numbers this time next year will reflect that.
I guess part of my frustration with the Pirates or baseball in general is the way pitchers are being used. The Pirates traded for Oviedo from St. Louis who was primarily a reliever. Oviedo's first full season with the Pirates they start him 32 times as he pitches 178 innings. That's 38 innings more than any pitcher on the 2024 world champion Dodgers pitched.
The Pirates get a 2.2 War out of him, which they don't have to pay for. Land him on the IL and use that against him to win their arbitration case. I like Oviedo because of his attitude and work ethic, but am really just venting. :)
No joke, I'd rather see Greg back in black and gold yoking a few dongs around the 40% k-rate he'd suffer.
https://x.com/LockedOnPirates/status/1694364650505138453
That swing. Still the same.
loved that guy. i hope he's achieved mythical fame in japan.
Rays signed Ha-Seong Kim. Two years, 29 million.
The Rays sometimes know something that none of the rest of the baseball world does not.
I think they are just comfortable and confident in taking risk, but outside of his injury, Kim doesn’t offer a ton of risk. He’s got a solid floor as a player with some potential upside in the bat and with his legs.
Can’t expect Nuttin’s team to compete with a financial colossus like the Rays.
So, despite stadium problems, low attendance, and playing in a division with the Yankees, Orioles, and Red Sox, they're spending money? Maybe it was that Junior Caminero HR the other night that muddled their thinking.
On the surface, this may look a bit rich, but Kim’s baseline WAR is probably mid- to high-2’s. Add a little more pop in the bat and swipe a few more bags, then you are approaching 4-WAR territory. I like the player, and I like the signing. This is how smart teams approach roster building.
*after* they traded their most expensive pitcher projected to make nearly as much.
Yes this is a Mitch Keller subtweet.
I honestly have no idea what he’s fetch since the pitching market is so bonkers.
Agreed. I thought I’d help you and try to look up an analogous free agent contract to get an idea of his value, but I went back to 2022 and didn’t love any of the comps. Most of the free agents were older than him, more inconsistent, more injury prone, or pitched better. The steady, plug and chug, 2-3 WAR guy isn’t reaching free agency at a young age. Maybe that should tell us something.
For a team like the Pirates, it should tell them that he has trade value. And, as this young team ages, that $15m to $20m per year would be better allocated to those younger players and/or potentially supporting cast members. I like Keller’s consistency, but he doesn’t provide nearly the upside for this contract to be worthwhile to hold to term. If he pops anything close to a 3-WAR season, I would be looking to move him immediately.
I have a hard time understanding all the nuances that go into the payroll figures, but between looking at Spotrac, BR and Fangraphs, it appears they have about $80ish million in commitments for this year, including this deal, assuming it’s spread equally between the two years. So less than us at the moment. They rely on cheap and cost controlled players, and that cost containment allows them to splurge on the occasional addition like this or Zack Eflin a few years back.
that *and* trading players they extend when they get expensive, as they just did with Jeff Springs.
Yes the trades are part of the conveyor belt of cheap talent.
I’ve raised this before, but I wonder if one of the few things left for small markets to exploit is payroll flexibility?
Think about it, you don’t know your needs year to year, let alone 5 years from now. Good guys are always available on pillow deals. Is there an argument to run things lean so you can add externally to fill the holes that come up, which in this instance, happened by a guy being arrested?
This isn’t rocket science, but you also have to execute in multiple different facets of the process. The Pirates are absolutely horrible at asset management, their inability to get anywhere near max value out of players has greatly held this team back. It’s like they simultaneously suffer from both recency and loss aversion biases, among others. Players who have considerably outperformed do not typically reset their floors, they most likely just outperformed on a short term basis. The Rays are extremely adept at identifying this and extracting max value from these players on the trade market. They also haven’t been afraid to dip their toes into FA with multiyear deals and easily getting out of those contracts at a later date if need be. Unless there is an expectation that player salaries will decline, locking in multiple years at present value dollars is just another way to create additional value, all things being equal.
where have you gone Neal Huntington ;)
And that’s proven to work. But the second part of that (if you’re looking to stay somewhat competitive) is getting value for those expensive players in trades back and developing your own. Neither of which this FO has shown much aptitude for.
In all seriousness, good for them and I hope Kim is healthy and it works out for player and team.
Apparently includes an opt out after the first year
Oy.
Me n my pirate ship have docked in French Pollyanna and even I can't find hope in this... And man, that's my super-power.
Looking at the numbers from '24 and projections for '25, Frazier is just Cutch without the power (and who can still field).
Maybe they're gonna use Fraz, a player I always loved, to DH for Cutch vs. righties. That the Pirates are such a deep team that they can afford a platoon at DH is... mysterious.
For some reason, over at FanGraphs, they're slightly optimistic on both:
Frazier: projected for '25 to hit .244 with a .306 on base percentage.
Fraz hit lefties last year at a .172 clip / righties at a .206.
Why they project that Fraz will hit 42 points higher this season must indicate some injury or aggression (opposite of regression) to his mean.
Cutch: projected for '25 to hit .230 with a .327 on base percentage.
Cutch hit lefties last year to the tune of .200... that's bad seeing as his career vs. lefties sits at .291... He used to demolish lefties.
Cutch hit right handers for a .244 average last season.
AS IS, I think the Bucs have enough to make the playoffs this year. Was doing a countdown to 82 last season and then gave up when the carrot patch went dry after the trade deadline.
I think the real team is somewhere between the fast start and the sudden capsizing of the ship last year. I THINK the pitching and defense are enough to get to a winning season. I THINK they have just enough offense to win most days with the pitching they're likely to have (which includes a big X factor in Chandler).
If the bullpen doesn't suck... And let's think of this in terms of the analytic brains they pinched from the Astros... If the bullpen is competent and the offense is competent, then we have matchups enough to get us to a Wild-Card playoff. That is the IF I am living with. But I still see no need to add Adam Frazier, a guy who I will root for regardless.
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“Well, what did you expect in an opera? A happy ending?”
-Wabbit
BN is just trolling us now.
I agree with NMR, Frazier doesn’t deserve this.
Quintana and Grichuk today? Or was Frazier and Ferguson our big signings?
I think Frazier is it. I can't see them adding another OF.I really don't see how he's any better than the in house options. Wasting a roster spot on him is foolish. This seems like a front office move to try and make some fans happy. Kind of like McCutchen (at least he had some value). Bring back a fan favorite, make a bobble head night for them and hope the casual fan is happy with it.
My biggest concern at this point is that they throw money at some rando outfielder to create the appearance of trying. Just roll with Suwinski/Palacios and Yorke/Cooke. That’s more interesting than watching an overpaid Adam Duvall struggle to a .680 OPS.
Give me a Yorke/Cook platoon all day. Did not realize how well Yorke hit righties in the minors until the other day.
I am on this bus.
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“My, I’ll bet you monsters lead innnnteresting lives.”
-Wabbit
PS to Anthony: article on what's up with the Frazier signing. Is it just a cheap insurance policy for Gonzales?
maybe you have a point with Yorke and Cook but Suwinski and Palacios are a bit long in tooth, no?
I’ll also add Suwinski gives you a ceiling that’s higher than anyone they could plausibly sign.
Take a look at Palacios’s Statcast from last year which was pretty solid, as well as OOPSY and Steamer have him at a .717 and .710 OPS. And those same projection systems have Suwinski at .714 and .738 OPS.
Grichuk is projected at .727 and .738.
Now if I’m a betting man, I like Grichuk’s odds of achieving those numbers a little better than Jack or Palacios, but with Yorke and Cook you have some backup in case one or both struggle.
If Grichuk is deployed like last season, he’ll blow by those projections.
Agreed! That’s why I want him, you could form a 4 win player that produces 30 HRs if used right with Suwinski.
Definitely some value against lefties, but the park factors would eat into some of his production here as well. I just think I’d just rather stick with what we have on hand and sign a solid reliever if any funds are still available.
I think they around $82M right now. I have heard from multiple reporters they are pushing $100M this year. That gives them $18M to play with. What reliever do you want?
I agree with that. However, I think grichuk is an upgrade and him and Suwinski would make a good platoon.
Grichuk offers more floor for a team that has a lot of floor. And I have no reason to believe that the guys they have on the roster can’t offer what Grichuk does. They aren’t really fixing the offense with Grichuk, nor are there players left in FA who offer that. So assuming they have money left, maybe a reliever is the better place to spend it?
I kind of disagree unless your meaning of floor is well below replacement level. The only position player starters they have any floor are Reynolds and Cruz. Outside of those two, the position player group is a bunch of unprovens.
According to ZIPS, they have a robust collection of 1-3 WAR players around the diamond. That’s floor. The ceiling is non-existent, because aside from Cruz they don’t have anyone capable of putting up anything north of 4 WAR.
Just bc they have no ceiling doesn’t mean they have floor. 1 to 3 WAR is basically replacement to average. I don’t think that robust collection will be very robust when all is said and done. Almost none of those players have any real track record as full-time major league position players. It’s more likely that most will fail and few will reach their 1-3 WAR projection. I’m just hoping it doesn’t take the entire year for Cherington/Shelton to figure that out bc the roster is already filled with redundancy.
Not fixing but improving. He is great against lefties, he put up a 2 WAR season just mashing lefties last year and if Suwinski can put 1-2 WAR against righties that’s 3-4 win position. I think the $7-10M would be worth it.
I doubt they’ll pay him $7-$10 million. Just reality there.
And I get the idea, it’s a little more of a guarantee than what they have. But between Cutch, Cook, Yorke, Hank, and Triolo I think you have enough roster flexibility there to be solid against LHP at the corners.
Payroll scarcity factors in too. I just wonder if it’s the best use of the money given that they could probably use another semi-sure thing in the bullpen.
Agree with your last sentence, really just depends on the dollars and options available to improve the roster. Nevertheless, Grichuk would definitely improve this roster in a platoon roll.
What do you think he’d get? I think the bullpen is fine, especially with guys like Oviedo, Ashcraft and burrows who could help there. I think getting another starter at this point, with what’s left in FA, is the best option (Quintana, Heaney, or Gibson) all 2-3 win guys ~$10-12M. This allows you to use the guys above to help in the bullpen and I think these guys give you more wins than another bullpen arm or two. Add a starter with Grichuk that gets you to about $100M and I think makes your team deeper and better. I prefer cook, Yorke, and palacios to be depth this year not guys that have to work out. Also, Grichuk and Quintana improve the team by 3-4 wins I believe. A bullpen arm maybe 1-2 if you add one or two more.
Grichuk offers more floor for a team that has a lot of floor...
Dude, that's funny.
To make room for frazier, Elvis alvarado has been dfa'd. Cue the elvis has left the building jokes. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/01/pirates-designate-elvis-alvarado-for-assignment.html
Lol... they actually DFA'd someone who might be useful for someone who has exactly 0% chance of being a useful player. The people running this team all need to be fired yesterday.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-pirates-approach-to-getting-paul-skenes-to-the-playoffs-sign-adam-frazier-and-tim-mayza/
Yes, thanks for sharing. Excellent article, and probably the first of many to address the concern that the Pirates aren't taking advantage of the Skenes' era. It's only been one year, but as Clemens points out, after this year we'll be 1/3 the way through his time with us and it doesn't look like we're "all-in" this year.
Thanks for sharing. I recommend that everyone read it. Agree with NMR's comment below regarding Frazier. I refuse to fool myself into believing that this can be a competitive team given the ownership constraints. It won't matter, but there will be national backlash over Nutting's refusal to add "substance" to this team. It won't matter, but I'll enjoy seeing it.
I can't remember more times than over the last few years where I've felt bad for the *player* who receives a Major League contract from the Pirates.
Adam Frazier didn't need this, man. He doesn't need to be the symbolic f*ck you to Pittsburgh baseball.
Exactly. The saddest aspect of this whole sordid affair is that Frazier is a highly likeable guy who is now going to be showered with boos as his OPS hovers around the .560 level for 3 months.
At least it will be boos from about 9,346 fans on a non bobblehead, Skenes or fireworks night. Imagine if a real team signed him.
always makes me laugh at certain media not on this site who assert pittsburgh as a difficult place. brother, have you ever been to philly/NYC/BOS.
Philly. But I've been to Charleston River dog games with a larger crowd than PNC. Especially when Arod rehabbed there. Also ran into Bill Murray a few times.
Nutz wouldn't last an hour in those markets. I'm not even sure the papers would report on the Phillies signing Frazier. Maybe if it was April 1.
Damn transitions. He maybe the Lincoln to my Durden. Ya dig?
There’s nothing left to be said about this farce after that.
That article is far too deferential to both Frazier and Mayza. Frazier was so bad last year. This is 2018 Sean Rodriguez level bad. At least when they brought Rodriguez back from the Phils, they were not sure that his career was over. Frazier's career is over. He can't play MLB baseball any more, and the fact that this front office can't realize something that obvious is the most chilling aspect of this entire deal.
I agree, but it’s striking that he goes quite easy on them but still blisters the team.
If you want to get even more down on Frazier, check out Statcast. His speed and range have cratered over the last couple years. He’s past his sell-by date.
I watched him last year. He can't hit any more. The hand-eye and bat speed is just not there to handle major-league velocity. He is so geared up for fastballs, that he just flails at every secondary pitch. Even with gearing up for fastballs, he struggles with them as well. The Frazier we knew ate up fastballs and served them up beautifully into gaps in the OF and between IF and OF. That Frazier is gone.
Maybe this off-season, he took to sleeping in a hyperbolic chamber and gave up meat. You know, like Tom Brady! 😐
So IOW, a Cherington Special.
For those scoring at home, the Reds (Burns, Lowder, Petty, Duno) and Brewers (Made, Pratt, Quero, Misiorowski) also have four. The Cubs have five (Shaw, Ballesteros, Alcantera, Caissie, and Horton) and the Cards have three (wetherholt, Matthews, Hence).
Edit: this was supposed to reply to my comment above so it made sense.
Second edit: the Dodgers have eight players on this list: Sasaki, Rushing, De Paula, Freeland, Hope, Morales, Ferris, and Ryan. This is what the Rays would look like if they had lots of money.
There goes Kim to TB.
Take off Sasaki and it's still very impressive what the Dodgers are able to do when they're drafting near the back of the first round (and of course all the following rounds) and are subject to the same (actually more strict than some) international cap limits that other teams are.
I dislike seeing Sasaki on this list with the Dodgers.
I guess. His signing by them isn’t a big bucks signing, like Snell or Ohtani though.
If he were signed by the Pirates, I would be fine with it. :)
Ain’t gonna argue with that!
ESPN has their prospecty list out. Bubba at 11, TJ at 72, Griffin at 81, Ashcraft at 99.
Good for Kiley, keeping the faith in TJ (at least in terms of him being ranked higher than Griffin). I think that's right as we should all be very happy a couple of years from now if Griffin also makes it to AA by age 20.
BA seems to be the odd man out at this point with Termarr.
FG’s list drops next week I believe.
Kiley McDaniel of ESPN weighs in with his top 100 prospects: Chandler at 11; Termarr at 72; Griffin at 81; and Ashcraft at 99.
More from "Baseball Wit and Wisdom" as I divert my attention thru travel to avoid stewing over the endless January:
"The manager's toughest job is not calling the right play with the bases full and the score tied in an extra inning game. It's telling a ballplayer that he's through, done, finished."
- Jimmie Dykes (White Sox manager)
So who is telling Frazier this? Bucs rarely do anything hard.
Frazier’s contract is low enough that cutting him or demoting him would not be an issue, shit he could even be cut before the start of the season. The issue is of course wasting their “limited” funds on him, but other than it’s not much to see here…….and true to form, I have to write this…..extend Frazier, extend Frazier!
Oh great...handing Shelty a crusty veteran to waste a ton of playing time on. Just terrific.