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Benton Jennings's avatar

Pipeline doing mock draft now. Have Pirates taking Aiva Arquette

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bmcferren's avatar

that guys smells like kevin newman to me

go for a big lotto pick in high school

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Anthony Murphy's avatar

I get the whole hitting need, but I'd have a hard time passing up Seth Hernandez if he's available at 1.6

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Melkel's avatar

Me too!!! I have a hard time putting Holliday ahead of Hernandez. It would stink if he made it to Cincy. Probably the 3 college lefties and 2 right handers as well. And I'd prefer a bat but not a college bat at 6.

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Bianco599's avatar

Who would you compare Hernandez to? Bubba C?

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Melkel's avatar

Verlander if he hits his ceiling.

It's his release and how his fast ball jumps out and the curve even though their motions are different, both have a similar arm motion.

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Melkel's avatar

NickyG doubles off the wall, Suwinski homers right after 461ft. 110mph off the bat. Suwinski doubled earlier as well.

They gave Gonzales a triple.

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Phil's avatar

Looked like Suwinski hit a changeup 461ft. That’s impressive

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Melkel's avatar

It was a blast, made it to the scoreboard in right center. https://x.com/indyindians/status/1928237134005080187

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bmcferren's avatar

sources saying KeBryan heading to the Yankees for Devin Williams

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Scott Kliesen's avatar

The (hardly) low budget Dodgers doing some dumpster diving today by trading for Diaz from Cincy.

Watch the Dodgers turn him back into an AS level Closer.

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NMR's avatar

Just saw Red Sox rookie phenom Khristian Campbell is down to a .669 OPS after a May in which he's post a wRC+ of -10. That's negative 10. Signed an 8-yr contract extension this year after his first week in the bigs.

Damn this game is hard.

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Melkel's avatar

Esmerlyn Valdez with #15.

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WTM's avatar

Leads that league by four.

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WTM's avatar
May 29Edited

The shot of the AZ manager was hilarious, like, “The advance scouting didn’t say anything about this shit.”

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TNBucs's avatar

A lot of standings show records over the last 10 and for the first time this year, we have a winning record over the last 10 at 6-4 (we have had a couple of 6-5 stretches but until yesterday hadn't won 6 of 10 at any point in '25).

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NMR's avatar

Isiah Luis-Kiner-Arraez Falefa, 9% k-rate / 90% contact rate / .323 average over the last month.

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Melkel's avatar

I think the two options with IKF, trade him soon or try to extend him 2 or 3 years.

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StatsCbl's avatar

Timing on signings or trades has not been the Pirates strong suit.

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NMR's avatar

Short of waiting to see what potentially shakes out at the trade deadline, they've gotta do something about the position for next year and none of the free agents I see look much more attractive.

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bmcferren's avatar

I´m ready to let Oneil return to shortstop

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WTM's avatar

I almost think that, since they have a raft of second basemen, put Nick G at SS, put up with the defense and try to get some offense until a better solution is found.

I wouldn’t try to re-up IKF unless his defense does an about-face. His Statcast numbers are effing weird. Went from 70-odd percentile last year to 20-odd in both defensive and baserunning value. Has to be some regression coming. His hitting data has hardly changed at all.

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NMR's avatar
May 29Edited

You could talk me into that.

One of the few Pirates who's actual production is drastically exceeding projected, about 40 points up on his xwOBA. The other one being Adam Frazier.

I think slappy dudes can go on a run like that but makes me nervous expecting it to stick.

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WTM's avatar
May 29Edited

Interestingly, during his rehab Nick has played 23 innings at second and 17 at short.

On IKF, about the only thing that's changed from last year's underlying numbers is BABIP, which has gone from .307 to .352. Lifetime is .305, so yeah, not counting on him hitting .297.

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Melkel's avatar

Yep, I think on a 2 or 3 year deal, you know what you're getting. If he is the super utility that plays regularly, great. If he's you're everyday shortstop, ok but the problem just gets kicked further down the road.

A trade soon should bring back at least something interesting, closer to the deadline he could improve or lessen the return. He could also price himself out of Pittsburgh if he keeps up the pace you mentioned above.

Not a bad problem, but this is an area I wish the organization would be a bit more proactive. (Finding a shortstop)

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NMR's avatar

amen.

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Melkel's avatar

https://x.com/MLBPipeline/status/1928272113267347921

If only the front office would have tried back in December, they had a window when the Mets needed pitching.

I really need to move on from this dream lol.

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TNBucs's avatar

With the off day today and another on Monday, I'm expecting that they'll skip Burrows this time through the rotation. Otherwise, Skenes would go from two starts with four days rest to a start with six days rest, which doesn't seem ideal. If they do skip Burrows, then we'd have a strong pen for the SD series.

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NMR's avatar

I'm usually the slow man on promos but even I'm getting an itchy trigger finger for Bubba.

Backslid a little this month with his control but enough guys have gotten their shot without taking the reigns that I'm ready for his.

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StatsCbl's avatar

Bubba was kind enough to have a brief conversation with me Monday. Let's just say he has more than an itchy trigger finger to get called up.

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TNBucs's avatar

Now would be a good time to move Burrows to the pen and then bring Chandler up the next time that spot comes up in the rotation.

They should go ahead and deal Heaney so that one of Ashcraft, Burrows, or Mlod get a chance to start once Chandler is up, but I don't see Ben doing that until much closer to the deadline.

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bmcferren's avatar

sources saying Diamondbacks want Peguero back

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TNBucs's avatar

Can we exchange him for Perdomo, the other highly regarded SS prospect in their system at the time of the original trade (iirc)?

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NMR's avatar

burn!

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WTM's avatar

Haha, if they gotta bunt, need more of this:

"Wyatt Sanford singles on a soft bunt ground ball to pitcher Rudit Pina. Eduardo Oviedo to 3rd. Carl Calixte to 2nd."

Sanford actually bunts better than anybody on the major league team.

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Melkel's avatar

Sanford is having a pretty good day, from the looks of GameDay.

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WTM's avatar

And after some tomfoolery by the Braves, Rich Ramirez hit a slam.

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JRC21's avatar

Also in the Athletic, Keith Law updates his top 50 prospects. Roman Anthony is his #1, joining the overall consensus. He ranks Bubba #7, behind Painter for best overall pitching prospect, but says he has the best fastball in the minors. He drops Yorke from the top 50 due to negative swing changes. (No idea what that refers to). And he does not move Griffin into the top 50.

I have a question in the comments section about Griffin. Law does respond to comment section questions, so I’ll see if he responds. Someone else questioned the Griffin omission as well.

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Melkel's avatar

Just out of curiosity, is Aidan Miller in his top 50? If so where?

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JRC21's avatar

Aidan Miller is #9, but the fourth shortstop behind Sebastian Walcott, Colt Emerson, and Franklin Arias.

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Melkel's avatar

Thanks, Termarr and Aidan are literally the same age (2 days difference). Termarr strikes out less, walks more, has hit for a higher average with more power and plays in a more pitcher friendly home park.

Aidan is projected to move to 3rd base while Termarr is at 2nd. 3rd generally needs the stronger bat, either Termarr is underrated or Aidan is overrated.

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Bianco599's avatar

Truth spitta

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NMR's avatar

that's one i do not get at all. raw is the only possible tool people can believe is superior to Termarr, right?

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Melkel's avatar

Yep, Termarr has way more professional at bats than Aidan but Termarr still hasn't faced a pitcher younger than he is.

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NMR's avatar

even the issue with passivity some have noted in Termarr...Miller has a *lower* swing rate.

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JRC21's avatar

Law on Griffin: “Griffin is extremely talented - I’m not denying any of that, and if I’d gone to 100 he’d be on it. But his pitch recognition and ball/strike recognition are not very good; he’s chasing a lot, even on fastballs, and whiffing almost half the time on sliders 80 mph+. Right now he’s what we thought he was going into the season: possible 80 tools in power, speed, and arm, but a huge problem about whether he can hit.”

Look, I know that Law’s word is not gospel, and that he has been wrong plenty of times. But I post his stuff because he has access to data and scouting opinions that we don’t have, so I think it is inherently interesting and, in this case, a bit of a reality check for people who want Griffin promoted yesterday. Griffin is so spectacular that it’s easy to lose sight of the underlying issues.

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theobserver's avatar

Such is the nature of drafting for ceiling.

Intriguingly, Griffin managed three walks in two games after going five-ever without one.

I suspect the problem for Griffin is that his man-size power at this level makes it feel laughable to hold up and take a ball.

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Chris Chapman's avatar

I respect Keith Law, but as you mention: “he’s been wrong plenty of times.” It really doesn’t matter to me what lists he makes, especially 150 at bats into his career. Obviously he has to reason and make judgments but for a guy ripping the ball and crushing it, his explanation is over analysis at this point. Is he supposed to be hitting .400? Are the guys who are ranked hitting .400? I love what Griffin is doing and if he is good he will continue to prove it at every level. It is fine for Law to take a wait and see approach, though I don’t put much stock in his “explanation” for the moment. Konnor Griffin is currently doing a really good impression of “hitting”.

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Catch22's avatar

Griffin is a tooled-up unit, but the red flags cannot be ignored. If his approach doesn't improve, you're talking about some version of Javier Baez.

When you're chasing like that, the best pitchers on the planet will exploit you.

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Anthony Murphy's avatar

The chase rate isn't that bad, especially considering his age. He's works counts really well. He's just super aggressive, so those borderline pitches that others would lay off on, he swings at.

Definitely wouldn't say he's on a Javier Baez path.

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Melkel's avatar

From the games I've watched, most of the bad chasing was early in the season. Other than 2 games in May, his strikeouts have been in check and he homered off Yesavage in one of those.

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Catch22's avatar

Baez had seasons where he was pushing 6 fWAR. Dude has 25 fWAR for his career.

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Arky Wags's avatar

Right! A Baez career in Pgh for KG is something I’d be ecstatic with.

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Chris Chapman's avatar

He is in full season A ball with 187 plate appearances. Is there someone out there who thinks he is a finished product who doesn’t need to improve? He is 19!

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NMR's avatar

I think the point is that "scouting the stat line" in A-ball hasn't proven to be very instructive. Remember Nick Gonzales in college...

These are precisely the kind of traits that get exposed at higher levels then have Pirate fans claiming the org "ruined" a hitter.

That being said, Griffin TO THE MOON.

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Anthony Murphy's avatar

People on Twitter were calling Nick Gonzales the next Mike Trout because the numbers he put up at NEW MEXICO STATE (and because he had 'fast hands').

Those were good times lol

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NMR's avatar

dude, his swing is exactly the same as Trout's you don't know what you're talking about. ;)

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Anthony Murphy's avatar

I've been told that, in fact, I do not know ball on multiple occasions over on the Bird app lol

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StatsCbl's avatar

Nick Gonzales has the best home run ratio in all of baseball this year!

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Anthony Murphy's avatar

That's all I need to hear lol

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StatsCbl's avatar

1 homer 3 at bats. I've been waiting a month to find the right time to use that. :)

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JRC21's avatar

I responded to Law’s comment along similar lines. At the end of the day less than a year into his pro career Griffin has an OPS of .887 at age 19 in a full season league that suppresses offense. He is 20 for 24 in stolen bases and playing great defense in center. That is still impressive regardless of the underlying data.

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WTM's avatar

Probably should attempt some research, but anecdotally, I don’t think it’s uncommon for a prep hitter to catch on after even a year or two. He’s seeing quality spin in volume for the first time. And I’ve SEEN KG making adjustments since mid-April. It’s not unreasonable to be encouraged by the “traditional” results.

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WTM's avatar

Wanna add here that KG's K rate went from 30% in April to 20% in May. This is a process, not a snapshot. Just too soon for a lot of judgments.

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NMR's avatar

rejoinder to my comment above about "scouting the stat line" would be Law also can't necessary "scout the metric line". Totally miss the adjustments made across two months when looking at the average across them.

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Scott Kliesen's avatar

It’s a good thing Keith Law’s opinion has zero effect on a prospect’s career path. I’m sure you know this, but every prospect ranking is done for our amusement. It has no bearing on trades or players careers.

However, what does matter is an organization’s ability to help their players maximize their talent. Something the Pirates can most certainly improve upon.

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bmcferren's avatar

Cubs are itching to call up Owen Caissie to the big leagues and they are on the hunt for pitching

Time is right to strike for Happ - we´ve got the goods they want in Heaney and they may even take on Pham and send us some money to cover a portion of Happ´s 2026 salary

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Scott Kliesen's avatar

Won’t happen for a variety of reasons, most notably Happ’s 2026 salary.

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bmcferren's avatar

what if they took KeBryan back in the deal?

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Buccoboy's avatar

They have a decent young prospect in Shaw.

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bmcferren's avatar

if we can convince the yankees to take kebryan instead of arendo some how, we´d have room to take on happs salary

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Catch22's avatar

I understand defensive metrics are very fluid, but Oneil is now 62nd percentile in outs above average. The Monkey is truly breaking out and it's awesome to watch.

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NolaJeffy(BnP)'s avatar

Looks like among qualified outfielders, he's up to 53rd out of 116 in OAA, but 27th of 38 in CF. Both of which I'll take. I'm not so much worried about DRS which is heavily weighted by errors, which I feel is to be expected with his limited time out there.

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Anthony Murphy's avatar

Seeing as he's on at least a 30/30 pace right now, I'd say as long as he isn't the WORST center fielder defensively, you are netting way positive value-wise.

So yea, I'll take 27th of 38 with that offense.

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StatsCbl's avatar

It seemed he had a pretty tough time judging flyballs 6 weeks ago. Whenever I see him turn sideways for a flyball, that is my clue it is going to be caught. He has really exceeded expectations offensively and defensively.

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Scott Kliesen's avatar

The Monkey?

Not sure he’s ok with that nickname.

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bmcferren's avatar

he autographs his baseballs with his nickname

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Catch22's avatar

El Mono

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NMR's avatar

i respect the caution coming from you but LOL

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Catch22's avatar

It's his nickname and I'm certain he's ok with it. On his arm guard, in big block letters, it says *THE MONKEY*

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Scott Kliesen's avatar

I’ll definitely take the L on this one. I think I still have PTSD from the Howard Cosell “little monkey” incident from my childhood.

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Catch22's avatar

Not sure if those are SFW.

He should walk up to Peter Gabriel - Shock the Monkey!

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bmcferren's avatar

They are SFW

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May 29
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Amos Moses's avatar

Unnecessary. Already explained below.

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JRC21's avatar

Speaking of which, excellent article on Cruz by Ken Rosenthal in the Athletic. Quoted the Brewers’ manager being in shell shock after last weekend.

Also some especially thoughtful comments from Cutch about what he needs to do to become a star. (In essence, don’t try to pulverize the ball every time and learn to be more instinctive in the outfield). But all agree that the guy is working his butt off to get better.

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Arky Wags's avatar

Cutch sounded like a future manager in that article. Not sure if that’s something he’d want to do, but I think he could.

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JRC21's avatar

Had the exact same reaction.

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Shawn Inlow's avatar

Yeah, that dude can cover several time zones out there.

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Amos Moses's avatar

Two thirds of the earth is covered by ocean. The rest is covered by Cruz?

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Memories of 71 and 79's avatar

I'm going to assume Axiel Plaz's 110.7 mph single wasn't his nifty little bunt single in the 5th last night.

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