Wonder what Mitch Keller trade value is. Do teams see him as a #2 or 3. Can we get an outfielder for him. Thinking maybe Baltimore. Corbin Burnes might be gone Thoughts
Because Keller is signed to a fair contract but not one that is likely to be very team friendly, they wouldn't get much of a return unless the cover part of Keller's salary (which is unlikely).
The best argument for trading him is to free up money to spend on others. Given their track record in free agency, I wouldn't trust them to make good use of the money they saved.
However, if they want to apply the roughly $71MM they still owe Keller to extend Skenes and buy out a couple of his free agent years, that could make sense. But that's the only use of the money saved that I think would justify trading Keller.
The earliest they should consider trading Keller is mid June of 2025. They have depth but not a lot of mlb proven starters, it also gives him a chance to add value if his first half is similar to the past 2 years.
There's exceptions if some team offers a deal too good to turn down. I'm not suggesting they trade him just giving a realistic time frame in my opinion.
Last 3 years he has averaged around 30+ Starts, 177 IP, and 2.53 fWAR/yr which amounts to value of $19.6 mil/year. He was paid $5.44 mil this year, and less the previous 2 years.
Coming off a down year in 2024 so he could be seen more as a #3, but whether it is 2, 3, or 4, he answers the bell every 5th day and will deliver an average number of almost 6 innings per start.
Will required the Pirates to pay down his salary by a significant amount and BN is not doing that. Best trade chip that I can somewhat stomach is Jared and that’s only because I believe that he’s an injury risk ( base on nothing but gut feelings).
As it stands, I'd put Ortiz as their best trade chip going into off-season. Keller would be a step above Ortiz, given a better MLB track record, so there'd have to be a more established piece in play. Jones would take a substantial return, so I believe if they really wanted to make a splash in boosting the big club along with quality upper level depth, they could seek to trade Ortiz and Jones. They should then gauge the Rays for one of their Double-A 1B with a controllable reliever lol
It's possibly risky, but they're going to need to take some risks eventually. Plus, add some higher upside bats to fill out the roster/depth, they then shrink the quantity of targets needed in FA. Spread $30M across 2-3 signings rather than 8
Also have a pretty "stable" backfill of starters that allow them to trade from an area of strength. Trade two starters, and you still have two top 100 arms (Bubba and Harrington) in Triple-A, two borderline top 100 arms (Ashcraft and Burrows who have injury histories and reliever risk), along with a returning backend MLB SP. That's just who internally will be available potentially at the onset of camp. Still likely to add some low cost arms in FA.
I'm gonna be so mad if they just sit on their hands lol
Fair enough, but in your opinion, what could Keller get in the market. IMO not much, because as you said, you could just get Gibson type for a year and lose nothing.
It wouldn't be anything earth shattering, but I think people underestimate the value of control along with relative consistency. We ourselves undervalue it with regards to throwing him in potential trades with, "ahhh, he's just a 4.00 ERA guy". That's still very valuable.
He had his one year of only $5.4 mil and now it goes to $15, $16.5, $18, $20 mil. But, the Pirates paid $21 mil last year to get Perez, Chapman, and Gonzales. There does not look like any need to pick up a FA SP or RP this year - that said, if somebody makes that call and offers a legit MLB Bat in return, I can see BC making that deal.
Pirate Rotation as I see it right now - Skenes, Jones, Keller, Oviedo, Falter with Ortiz as long relief/spot starts. Does Bubba force the issue in ST? If not, Bubba Chandler, Thomas Harrington, Mike Burrows, Hunter Ashcraft, and Hunter Barco starting 2025 at AAA. Burrows and Ashcraft are my primary trade pieces over the off-season, and possibly others. Pieces to add to pitchers in any trade would be Bae, Williams, IKF, and BDLC. Peguero starts 2025 as our Shortstop. Who did Kurtz go to?
Rockies extended Bud Black for another season. I bet they'd like some pitching to boost the club's chances for next year....
I'd like to think I helped the Tigers. I finally turned on the game and immediately: single, single, bomb
I got you beat, tuned in: single, bomb lol
Wonder what Mitch Keller trade value is. Do teams see him as a #2 or 3. Can we get an outfielder for him. Thinking maybe Baltimore. Corbin Burnes might be gone Thoughts
Because Keller is signed to a fair contract but not one that is likely to be very team friendly, they wouldn't get much of a return unless the cover part of Keller's salary (which is unlikely).
The best argument for trading him is to free up money to spend on others. Given their track record in free agency, I wouldn't trust them to make good use of the money they saved.
However, if they want to apply the roughly $71MM they still owe Keller to extend Skenes and buy out a couple of his free agent years, that could make sense. But that's the only use of the money saved that I think would justify trading Keller.
The earliest they should consider trading Keller is mid June of 2025. They have depth but not a lot of mlb proven starters, it also gives him a chance to add value if his first half is similar to the past 2 years.
There's exceptions if some team offers a deal too good to turn down. I'm not suggesting they trade him just giving a realistic time frame in my opinion.
Last 3 years he has averaged around 30+ Starts, 177 IP, and 2.53 fWAR/yr which amounts to value of $19.6 mil/year. He was paid $5.44 mil this year, and less the previous 2 years.
Coming off a down year in 2024 so he could be seen more as a #3, but whether it is 2, 3, or 4, he answers the bell every 5th day and will deliver an average number of almost 6 innings per start.
Will required the Pirates to pay down his salary by a significant amount and BN is not doing that. Best trade chip that I can somewhat stomach is Jared and that’s only because I believe that he’s an injury risk ( base on nothing but gut feelings).
As it stands, I'd put Ortiz as their best trade chip going into off-season. Keller would be a step above Ortiz, given a better MLB track record, so there'd have to be a more established piece in play. Jones would take a substantial return, so I believe if they really wanted to make a splash in boosting the big club along with quality upper level depth, they could seek to trade Ortiz and Jones. They should then gauge the Rays for one of their Double-A 1B with a controllable reliever lol
Similar to what I'm thinking.
It's possibly risky, but they're going to need to take some risks eventually. Plus, add some higher upside bats to fill out the roster/depth, they then shrink the quantity of targets needed in FA. Spread $30M across 2-3 signings rather than 8
This is a very worthwhile risk, could it blow up? Absolutely, but the team isn't going anywhere as currently constructed
Also have a pretty "stable" backfill of starters that allow them to trade from an area of strength. Trade two starters, and you still have two top 100 arms (Bubba and Harrington) in Triple-A, two borderline top 100 arms (Ashcraft and Burrows who have injury histories and reliever risk), along with a returning backend MLB SP. That's just who internally will be available potentially at the onset of camp. Still likely to add some low cost arms in FA.
I'm gonna be so mad if they just sit on their hands lol
Keller is getting 5/77 which averages out to 15.4/year
Kyle Gibson is a similar pitcher; Keller is a little better and 8 years younger. Gibson got 13M last season.
Keller's contract is a good contract and I don't think they would eat anything
Fair enough, but in your opinion, what could Keller get in the market. IMO not much, because as you said, you could just get Gibson type for a year and lose nothing.
I think he is more valuable to the Pirates than what he could get in a trade.
Keller's floor is 2 fWAR, ceiling is 3 fWAR and he's controlled for 4 more years. That lines up nicely with Skenes, Jones and Bubba.
It wouldn't be anything earth shattering, but I think people underestimate the value of control along with relative consistency. We ourselves undervalue it with regards to throwing him in potential trades with, "ahhh, he's just a 4.00 ERA guy". That's still very valuable.
He had his one year of only $5.4 mil and now it goes to $15, $16.5, $18, $20 mil. But, the Pirates paid $21 mil last year to get Perez, Chapman, and Gonzales. There does not look like any need to pick up a FA SP or RP this year - that said, if somebody makes that call and offers a legit MLB Bat in return, I can see BC making that deal.
Pirate Rotation as I see it right now - Skenes, Jones, Keller, Oviedo, Falter with Ortiz as long relief/spot starts. Does Bubba force the issue in ST? If not, Bubba Chandler, Thomas Harrington, Mike Burrows, Hunter Ashcraft, and Hunter Barco starting 2025 at AAA. Burrows and Ashcraft are my primary trade pieces over the off-season, and possibly others. Pieces to add to pitchers in any trade would be Bae, Williams, IKF, and BDLC. Peguero starts 2025 as our Shortstop. Who did Kurtz go to?
Who is everyone most excited to watch in the AFL? Curious to see how Yean does. I always like the comeback stories.
Bidois and Curtis for me on the pitching side. Am intrigued on how Siani handles the pitching.
Outside the Pirates, Shim is obvious. Zyhir Hope is a local kid (for me). Plus Jac Caglianone (who struck out twice last night)
Which of yinz were in the 6-person protest downtown against Nutting yesterday? Fess up.
This will answer your question if I was there…….what protest?? Lol!