Pittsburgh Pirates: Starting pitching free agent options
Pirates need to add starting pitching, but who should they target?
The recent news of Johan Oviedo’s injury was not a good way to begin the off-season, considering the Pittsburgh Pirates’ need for starting pitching as it was. Recently, I discussed how some of the Pirates’ young relievers fared with the Fangraphs Stuff+ model, so I thought, why not look at some available free agents and their metrics.
Top Targets
It’s not the perfect system, but I went to the Fangraphs Free Agent Tracker and sorted by the Crowd Sourced AAV, then went to Fangraphs Stuff+ to research their numbers. Four pitchers immediately stand out: Kenta Maeda (2 years - $24M), Luis Severino (1 year - $10M), Seth Lugo (2 years - $26M), and Michael Lorenzen (2 years - $20M). All four pitchers are average or better in Stuff+, Location+, and Pitching+ categories.
Maeda leads the group in Stuff+ (105) mainly due to a splitter that ranks first among splitters in the MLB of pitchers with at least 100 IP, totaling 19 pitchers. Maeda’s second-best pitch is his slider (105 Stuff+), but unfortunately, his four-seam (76) and sinker (73) are very well below average. He knows this, as he used his splitter and slider combo 62.5% (per Baseball Savant) of the time, with the four-seam coming in third (not that far behind) at 27.4%. He also had a Location+ of 103 and Pitching+ of 102.
Luis Severino has been a name thrown around, and he comes in second with a Stuff+ of 104. He has one of the more well-rounded arsenals, having an above-average four-seam (103), above-average cutter (110), and a Pirates’ favorite well-above-average slider (126). He also has a changeup that he threw 18.6% of the time, generating a Stuff+ of 80 (his worst-graded pitch). Going back, it’s not a pitch that has ever graded well. Severino’s Location+ graded at 103 and Pitching+ of 101.
A name many may not have expected to hear is Seth Lugo. Lugo led the group with a Pitching+ of 103. He had two above-average pitches: his slider (112) and his curveball (121). He also threw a sinker slightly below average at 97 and, interestingly, wasn’t the most relied upon fastball. His four-seam was graded out at 85, where aspects such as location and pitching come into play. He still generated a Whiff% of 21.5%; for comparison, the aforementioned Oviedo’s high velo heater generated a Whiff% of 18.3%.
The last name of this group is Michael Lorenzen. He’s similar to Lugo in that he has (once again) an above-average slider (116) and an above-average curveball (104). Lorenzen’s primary fastball is a four-seam with a Stuff+ of 98. His overall Stuff+, Location+, and Pitching+ were all 101.
Conclusion
Pirates should try to get two — at least one — of the above group. The biggest thing is that most of these names have a recent injury history, but if we’re being honest in this day and age, who doesn’t?
Rebound and Depth options
You can throw a bunch of names here, as there’s always a new one everyone talks about every week. Currently, two names I’ve seen thrown around are Jack Flaherty and Cal Quantrill. I’d pass, but arms are arms at this juncture.
Frankie Montas (1 year - $8M) would be one of the more interesting names when looking back to his 2022 season. In 2023, he threw only 1.1 innings, but a year ago, in 144.1 IP, he had four above-average pitches by Stuff+: four-seam (103), cutter (113), splitter (101), and slider (116). His “worst” pitch was a sinker that graded at 96. All coupled with an overall Stuff+ of 104, Location+ of 101, and Pitching+ of 105.
Sean Manaea (2 years - $24M) was a name thrown around last year. He has a well above-average sinker (121) and four pitches that all grade below average. He does have a Location+ of 101.
Lastly, a known name is Vince Velasquez. He threw only 37.1 innings, but the numbers were intriguing enough that I think he’s worth giving another shot, too. His four-seam has a Stuff+ of 110 and a slider with 101. The changeup and sinker were not good, but his overall numbers were Stuff+ and Location+ of 99, then a Pitching+ of 102.
Not sure how i missed this article nola but great stuff here, thank you for compiling these stuff+, etc for all these names. Honestly would be content with any of these guys as i think they all have a reasonable chance to be something decent. Of course, would love Erod + 1-2 of these names but probably more realistic is that this level will be the high end of our shopping spree
Excellent presentation, and the Pirates definitely have the dollars available to sign a few guys off this list. However, instead of spending dollars on questionable returns, why not just spend less and use the guys we supposedly prepped last year for just a future situation such as this. We have Keller as the ACE, and my No. 2/3 to start the season would be Jared Jones who had 15 Starts at AAA, 82 IP, 4.72 ERA after throwing 44 innings at AA with a 2.23 ERA. The other 2/3 would be Quinn Priester. He struggled, but started 8 games/50 IP for the Pirates in 2023 after 20 Starts, 9-4, 4.00 ERA, 108 IP at AAA.
I would not do anything regarding signing FA SP's until we have solid scouting of where BRU, Max Kranick, Luis Ortiz, and Roansy Contreras are in their off-season prep. BRU could be back by June, and Kranick threw 15-20 innings at AAA to finish 2023 - I'm thinking he could be ready to be the No. 4 SP. Ortiz is tough to watch at times, but he was 5-5, 4.78 for the Pirates in 2023 with 15 Starts and 3 relief appearances for a total of 86.2 IP. He would be No. 5.
Others to consider: Andre Jackson was a spot SP/RP who was 1-3, 4.33 ERA in 43.2 IP for the Pirates last year. Another is LHSP Bailey Falter, 2-2, 5.58 in 7 starts/3 relief outings with the Pirates last year. A couple of other considerations would be Kyle Nicolas, Aaron Shortridge (not sure of 40), and Cody Bolton.