Jeff: Third reading and I am still confused, but that's no big thing because my era was "see ball, hit ball"! There will always be new approaches to pitching more efficiently, just as I am sure it will not take very long for hitters to catch up. Technology is a wonderful gift!
Have you watched the movie "Fastball?" It is a great documentary that explains fastball dynamics and examines fastballs throughout history. One thing that the movie points out is the optical illusion that velocity combined with high spin can produce. A high velocity (95+ mph) with good spin that produces lift (like air under the wings of an airplane) appears to hitters to rise and they even say things like, "his fastball just jumps over your bat." Of course, the ball does not rise; it just drops less than one would expect. The illusion is created because at velocities above 95 MPH, the eye cannot track the ball and so jumps from one point to the next where the hitter expects the ball to be. While the eyes are jumping, the brain fills in these jumps in perception with the expected route of the ball, and the brain expects the ball to fall more than it does. This is what creates the optical illusion and strikeouts or swinging under the ball. When the ball arrives, the hitter expects it to be below where it actually is. Velocity is important here though as even fractions of seconds allow for the brain to assimilate more information from the eyes and better track the path of the ball.
You hit on the science of brain neurology, which is huge with hitting a baseball. It's the biggest mystery of human anatomy and imho not everyone's brain works identically incl among MLB players. For example, how does a low producing hitter suddenly have those spurts of SSS with huge success? We label that as "he's seeing the ball really well" or "the baseball looks like a beach ball". It's the brain neurology at work.
To my mind, this is pure speculation on how the brain processes this information. What is not pure speculation is the number of synapses that may fire during the time it takes the ball to reach homeplate. This can be estimated with modest precision using modern techniques (though only at a superficial level... i.e. a few centimeters deep into the brain.). One thing that the research has shown is that synaptic activity in the brain can vary considerably from one period of time to another. Guys go on heaters for a time, I suspect, because their brains are functioning with improved efficiency and the synapses are firing better during these periods (which is why they describe themselves as "seeing the ball real well.). The question is what causes this improved brain function. Some things seems essential: proper rest: sufficient but not excessive exercise; good diet; and so forth. Even with all these variables as constant, however, there is still a great deal of variation in brain function from one period of time to another.
The Yahoo article linked also talks about how rising fastballs at top of zone is also to combat how "hitters live in the 4°-12° zone". With swings are more geared for lift, the rising fastball "jumps over" as you mentioned. Good section in there about Cole too, and how it was a main focus.
Where does Skenes fit into this idea, notion, science or whatever it is? This stuff makes my head spin. I know there were articles prior to the draft that listed concerns about his fastball being flat or in the dead zone. I brought it up several times before the draft trying to support their drafting Crews as a safer and more valuable pick but that’s not relevant anymore and everyone (including me) has their hopes riding on Skenes.
It would appear the Pirates either believe they can fix it, don’t believe it’s real so don’t care about it or are just ignoring it in the hope it’ll go away. Has anyone ever asked them about it? Not that it’s likely they would have an actual answer.
The numbers were that Skenes has a flat FF. Now, we only have very minimal preliminary data from his one Bradenton start, but so far it appears they're having him use more of a two-seam.
Without much other than raw data, it looks to have similar movement to Darvish's two-seam. But, this also where velo and command come into play. With his velocity, if he can spot the fastball wherever he wants like the couple at top of zone in Marauders start, the shape becomes less an issue. Then if the secondaries are also as advertised, even less an issue.
That’s not the case with Paul Skenes. He came into the draft as the closest thing to a major leaguer in all of college baseball. He throws 100 with movement. He backs it up with a hellacious slider. You can picture that kind of stuff, because you’re used to current big leaguers dominating with roughly those same pitches. And thanks to the magic of modern streaming technology, his first professional start was available to watch from the comfort of your own home.
How did he look? Well, basically like I expected he would. He looked like a good major league pitcher right this minute. He even got the Pitching Ninja treatment, something you don’t see every day in A-ball. His fastball, shape questions and all, looked explosive:
I'm with you on Skenes, but the eye test to me was he wasn't nearly as sharp as he was at the CWS starts. But 16 pitches isn't enough to draw any conclusions, which is why I wanted to see a second inning from him. But he's had 6 weeks off from live batters, so I fully expect he'll be ready when he gets to the bigs in '24.
Hey, I certainly hope all the expansive predictions people have expressed for Skenes come true, but there have been concerns about his fastball long before he became a Pirate. The comments about him being ready for the major leagues when he was at LSU didn’t mean anything then and sure don’t now.
It’s one thing to look like a good major league pitcher “right this minute” when throwing one inning against basically high level high school players but quite another when facing actual major league hitters in a game situation. I too hope and think he’ll be able to do it but only time will tell. I’m looking forward to seeing him dominate in Pittsburgh ASAP.
Jeff: Third reading and I am still confused, but that's no big thing because my era was "see ball, hit ball"! There will always be new approaches to pitching more efficiently, just as I am sure it will not take very long for hitters to catch up. Technology is a wonderful gift!
Have you watched the movie "Fastball?" It is a great documentary that explains fastball dynamics and examines fastballs throughout history. One thing that the movie points out is the optical illusion that velocity combined with high spin can produce. A high velocity (95+ mph) with good spin that produces lift (like air under the wings of an airplane) appears to hitters to rise and they even say things like, "his fastball just jumps over your bat." Of course, the ball does not rise; it just drops less than one would expect. The illusion is created because at velocities above 95 MPH, the eye cannot track the ball and so jumps from one point to the next where the hitter expects the ball to be. While the eyes are jumping, the brain fills in these jumps in perception with the expected route of the ball, and the brain expects the ball to fall more than it does. This is what creates the optical illusion and strikeouts or swinging under the ball. When the ball arrives, the hitter expects it to be below where it actually is. Velocity is important here though as even fractions of seconds allow for the brain to assimilate more information from the eyes and better track the path of the ball.
You hit on the science of brain neurology, which is huge with hitting a baseball. It's the biggest mystery of human anatomy and imho not everyone's brain works identically incl among MLB players. For example, how does a low producing hitter suddenly have those spurts of SSS with huge success? We label that as "he's seeing the ball really well" or "the baseball looks like a beach ball". It's the brain neurology at work.
To my mind, this is pure speculation on how the brain processes this information. What is not pure speculation is the number of synapses that may fire during the time it takes the ball to reach homeplate. This can be estimated with modest precision using modern techniques (though only at a superficial level... i.e. a few centimeters deep into the brain.). One thing that the research has shown is that synaptic activity in the brain can vary considerably from one period of time to another. Guys go on heaters for a time, I suspect, because their brains are functioning with improved efficiency and the synapses are firing better during these periods (which is why they describe themselves as "seeing the ball real well.). The question is what causes this improved brain function. Some things seems essential: proper rest: sufficient but not excessive exercise; good diet; and so forth. Even with all these variables as constant, however, there is still a great deal of variation in brain function from one period of time to another.
The Yahoo article linked also talks about how rising fastballs at top of zone is also to combat how "hitters live in the 4°-12° zone". With swings are more geared for lift, the rising fastball "jumps over" as you mentioned. Good section in there about Cole too, and how it was a main focus.
Clever headline.
Where does Skenes fit into this idea, notion, science or whatever it is? This stuff makes my head spin. I know there were articles prior to the draft that listed concerns about his fastball being flat or in the dead zone. I brought it up several times before the draft trying to support their drafting Crews as a safer and more valuable pick but that’s not relevant anymore and everyone (including me) has their hopes riding on Skenes.
It would appear the Pirates either believe they can fix it, don’t believe it’s real so don’t care about it or are just ignoring it in the hope it’ll go away. Has anyone ever asked them about it? Not that it’s likely they would have an actual answer.
The numbers were that Skenes has a flat FF. Now, we only have very minimal preliminary data from his one Bradenton start, but so far it appears they're having him use more of a two-seam.
Without much other than raw data, it looks to have similar movement to Darvish's two-seam. But, this also where velo and command come into play. With his velocity, if he can spot the fastball wherever he wants like the couple at top of zone in Marauders start, the shape becomes less an issue. Then if the secondaries are also as advertised, even less an issue.
That’s not the case with Paul Skenes. He came into the draft as the closest thing to a major leaguer in all of college baseball. He throws 100 with movement. He backs it up with a hellacious slider. You can picture that kind of stuff, because you’re used to current big leaguers dominating with roughly those same pitches. And thanks to the magic of modern streaming technology, his first professional start was available to watch from the comfort of your own home.
How did he look? Well, basically like I expected he would. He looked like a good major league pitcher right this minute. He even got the Pitching Ninja treatment, something you don’t see every day in A-ball. His fastball, shape questions and all, looked explosive:
I'm with you on Skenes, but the eye test to me was he wasn't nearly as sharp as he was at the CWS starts. But 16 pitches isn't enough to draw any conclusions, which is why I wanted to see a second inning from him. But he's had 6 weeks off from live batters, so I fully expect he'll be ready when he gets to the bigs in '24.
Hey, I certainly hope all the expansive predictions people have expressed for Skenes come true, but there have been concerns about his fastball long before he became a Pirate. The comments about him being ready for the major leagues when he was at LSU didn’t mean anything then and sure don’t now.
It’s one thing to look like a good major league pitcher “right this minute” when throwing one inning against basically high level high school players but quite another when facing actual major league hitters in a game situation. I too hope and think he’ll be able to do it but only time will tell. I’m looking forward to seeing him dominate in Pittsburgh ASAP.
When Skenes blows 102 past Crews for strike 3 and the Pirates clinch the NLC, you and Lee are going to spontaneously combust.
Probably time to just wait and see?
I guess we’ll find out eventually as he rises up the food chain?